Back from ASG Break! Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

We’re most active on Twitter. Reply to this email with your thoughts, bets, or anything else — we respond to every reply.

Tigers ML (-105) @ Rangers – 8:05 PM ET
Detroit’s 116 wRC+ vs. lefties and .779 OPS against them set up perfectly against Patrick Corbin’s 5.33 ERA and 44% hard-hit rate over his last five starts. Olson (2.95 ERA) gives Detroit a strong edge.

Yankees/Braves Over 8 (-119) – 7:15 PM ET
Judge and the Yankees bring MLB’s hottest July offense (135 wRC+) against a diminished Strider (career-worst HR/9, hard contact up). New York also crushes first-pitch fastballs and doesn’t strike out much.

Brewers/Dodgers Over 8.5 (-111) – 10:10 PM ET
The Brewers have won seven straight behind Quinn Priester but face Ohtani and MLB’s top home-scoring lineup. Glasnow’s light workload and Milwaukee’s contact in the zone hint at runs on both sides.

All times EDT

✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-112)
🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 6-1, 3.36 ERA — 5-0 with 0.70 ERA in last six starts
🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 7-3, 3.91 ERA — xERA suggests regression ahead
🔍 Red-hot Boston won 12 of 13 entering the break while both lineups have been scoring consistently. With Giolito in elite form and Chicago due for offensive variance, runs should come on both sides.
💰 Odds: Cubs -143, Red Sox +118 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-107)
🔹 Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 3-7, 4.44 ERA — White Sox won his last three starts
🔹 Bailey Falter (PIT): 6-4, 3.79 ERA — 5.17 ERA since June, but Pirates solid at home
🔍 Both offenses rank among MLB’s worst, and Pittsburgh’s 3.71 ERA rotation shines at PNC. Expect a slow, low-scoring game despite Falter’s recent struggles.
💰 Odds: Pirates -164, White Sox +134 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-116)
🔹 Dylan Cease (SD): 3-9, 4.88 ERA — high strikeout rate despite rocky season
🔹 Michael Soroka (WSH): 3-7, 5.35 ERA — struggles with command, but soft contact
🔍 San Diego fights to keep pace in NL West while both starters’ strikeout ability limits contact. Washington’s bats remain inconsistent, favoring a low total.
💰 Odds: Padres -149, Nationals +122 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Angels SP: Expected Jose Soriano (6-7, 3.90 ERA) — recent struggles
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 8-5, 4.14 ERA — flashes dominance but prone to blowups
🔍 Schwarber & Trout headline a matchup with shaky starting control and warm Philly conditions. Both lineups can punish mistakes here.
💰 Odds: Phillies -209, Angels +169 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-109)
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 0-7, 4.70 ERA — still searching for first win
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 9-4, 4.12 ERA — durable, but some recent injury concerns
🔍 Toronto’s hot bats (6.2 runs/game pre-break) and Verlander’s struggles point toward offense, especially with Springer and Bichette both raking.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -156, Giants +128 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-102)
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 6-6, 3.38 ERA — Reds struggle vs. lefties
🔹 Sean Manaea (NYM): 0-1, 2.70 ERA — dominant in limited work
🔍 Both lineups underperform vs. lefties and Citi Field remains pitcher-friendly. Manaea’s stuff looked sharp in his return.
💰 Odds: Mets -156, Reds +128 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-106)
🔹 JP Sears (OAK): 7-7, 4.79 ERA — A’s staff allows tons of runs
🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 4-4, 3.44 ERA — Guardians hot pre-break
🔍 Oakland’s weak pitching and Cleveland’s improved form suggest enough offense to top this modest total despite Guardians’ righty struggles.
💰 Odds: Guardians -132, Athletics +108 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-108)
🔹 Royals SP: TBD (likely Lugo, 2.68 ERA) — elite bullpen
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 4-9, 7.22 ERA — vulnerable, but park suppresses runs
🔍 KC’s strong bullpen and Miami’s struggles with RISP make the under appealing in a low-scoring park, even with Alcantara’s woes.
💰 Odds: Royals -126, Marlins +104 | Total: 7.5

🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Ian Hamilton (NYY): 1-0, 3.47 ERA — solid but untested as starter
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 3-7, 3.94 ERA — velocity & K-rate down, more hard contact
🔍 Judge & Co. bring MLB’s second-best July offense against a struggling Strider. Atlanta has enough pop to contribute to the over here.
💰 Odds: Braves -138, Yankees +113 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-113)
🔹 Charlie Morton (BAL): 5-7, 5.18 ERA — strong history vs. Rays
🔹 Taj Bradley (TB): 5-6, 4.60 ERA — poor track record vs. O’s
🔍 Both bullpens project to keep scoring down late. Rays’ recent slide and Baltimore’s OPS allowed hint at an under.
💰 Odds: Rays -126, Orioles +104 | Total: 9.0

🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-105)
🔹 Reese Olson (DET): 4-3, 2.95 ERA — solid command & xERA
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 6-7, 4.15 ERA — hard-hit & .336 xBA allowed
🔍 Detroit’s dominance vs. lefties and Corbin’s decline set up a perfect rebound spot. Tigers’ strong road offense gives them the edge.
💰 Odds: Rangers -115, Tigers -105 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 11.0 (-110)
🔹 Chris Paddack (MIN): 3-8, 4.95 ERA — multiple runs allowed in 7 straight
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 1-10, 5.44 ERA — consistently hit hard
🔍 At Coors, both pitchers are hittable and the Rockies’ poor pitching creates a recipe for a high-scoring game.
💰 Odds: Twins -171, Rockies +140 | Total: 11.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-103)
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 5-5, 4.49 ERA — rough last outing
🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 9-6, 5.16 ERA — better at home
🔍 Both teams are swinging well lately, and Arizona’s bullpen struggles vs. righties point toward a high-scoring night.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -133, Cardinals +109 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-105)
🔹 Brandon Walter (HOU): 1-2, 3.98 ERA — struggles on the road
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 6-5, 3.41 ERA — inconsistent vs. Houston
🔍 With Walter’s road woes and Seattle’s recent offensive burst, this shapes up for runs on both sides despite pitcher-friendly T-Mobile.
💰 Odds: Mariners -137, Astros +112 | Total: 7.5

🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.5 (-111)
🔹 Quinn Priester (MIL): 7-2, 3.55 ERA — team has won his last 7
🔹 Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 1-0, 3.52 ERA — light workload
🔍 Brewers riding momentum but face Ohtani & MLB’s top home-scoring team. Both starters’ trends point to runs here.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -194, Brewers +158 | Total: 8.5

Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:

🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…

Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info

Interested in making your own newsletter? Use the link below to receive a 30-day trial + 20% OFF for 3 months on Beehiiv! Reply to this email, and we’ll even help you get started with AI tips and tricks to jumpstart your journey