Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers ML (-112) vs Mariners – 1:10 PM ET
Casey Mize (9-2, 2.63) has owned Seattle in his career with a 1.86 ERA, while George Kirby (4.22) has been rocked by Detroit before. Tigers are 40-4 when out-hitting opponents at home.

Phillies-Padres Under 7.5 (-115) – 7:35 PM ET
Wheeler (2.17 ERA) already shut out SD this month, and Padres’ .379 SLG vs RHP is among MLB’s worst. Darvish isn’t stretched out, so expect a low-scoring affair at Petco.

Brewers -1.5 (-110) vs Nationals – 4:10 PM ET
Ogasawara (13.50 ERA) was shellacked in his debut, and Milwaukee has won five straight. Woodruff is back and dominant, while Washington’s bullpen owns MLB’s highest ERA.

All times EDT

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-114)
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 9-3, 2.52 ERA — coming off 9 K shutout vs STL
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 11-2, 2.27 ERA — 6-0, 1.18 ERA career vs Cubs
🔍 Yankees have won five straight and blew out Chicago 11-0 Friday. Boyd struggles historically vs NY, while Fried has been untouchable at home. Look for a tight duel.
💰 Odds: Cubs +133, Yankees -163 | Total: 8.0

🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-112)
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 3-4, 4.22 ERA — 7.54 career ERA vs DET
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 9-2, 2.63 ERA — 2-0, 1.86 ERA vs SEA
🔍 Detroit is 32-16 at home and sends All-Star Mize to the mound. Seattle bats best on the road but Mize has dominated this matchup. Wind blowing in favors pitchers.
💰 Odds: Tigers -112, Mariners -108 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-101)
🔹 Mike Burrows (PIT): 1-2, 3.63 ERA — strong control, needs to limit big innings
🔹 Cole Sands (MIN): 3-3, 4.38 ERA — struggles with HRs
🔍 Pirates have lost seven straight and average just 2.83 runs/game on road. Both teams are offensively inconsistent and the total has moved down.
💰 Odds: Twins -144, Pirates +118 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-101)
🔹 TBD (ATL): likely opener with Wiles in bulk relief
🔹 Erick Fedde (STL): 3-9, 4.79 ERA — better at home (4.25 ERA)
🔍 Braves have dropped six straight series and struggle to score, but both starters are shaky. St. Louis thrives at home; expect offense with bullpen concerns.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -132, Braves +108 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-105)
🔹 Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 0-0, 1.50 ERA — just 6 innings this year but sharp
🔹 Landen Roupp (SF): 6-5, 3.39 ERA — struggled badly vs LAD last month
🔍 Dodgers have lost 7 straight while Giants are surging. Oracle Park suppresses runs and both starters are capable.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -163, Giants +133 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-101)
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 3-1, 3.12 ERA — great control, 1 HR allowed all year
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 2-0, 1.57 ERA — 1 run allowed last 13 innings
🔍 Both starters have been excellent, and Camden Yards has played pitcher-friendly this year. Orioles have won 3 straight while Miami’s rotation has been awful on the road overall.
💰 Odds: Orioles -172, Marlins +140 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 10.5 (-105)
🔹 Bradley Blalock (COL): 0-2, 12.94 ERA — already crushed by CIN once
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 7-7, 4.32 ERA — excellent vs COL (0.71 ERA)
🔍 Reds should bounce back after losing series opener. Blalock is a mess, and Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly.
💰 Odds: Reds -287, Rockies +227 | Total: 10.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-103)
🔹 Frankie Montas (NYM): 1-1, 6.14 ERA — struggles with HRs
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 5-8, 4.61 ERA — inconsistent but coming off shutout
🔍 Mets’ late-inning offense buried KC Friday. Both starters prone to mistakes, and Royals’ bullpen has been shaky.
💰 Odds: Mets -132, Royals +109 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-108)
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 8-4, 4.34 ERA — HR prone
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 9-4, 2.39 ERA — elite strikeout machine
🔍 Boston has won 8 straight and Crochet has been dominant. Rays starters excel with two strikes; expect a tight one.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -189, Rays +154 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-101)
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 4-9, 4.35 ERA — bad in July (9.35 ERA)
🔹 Sean Burke (CWS): 4-8, 4.40 ERA — poor vs CLE earlier
🔍 Both starters have struggled and bullpens are tired after extra innings Friday. Cleveland has won 4 of 5 in series.
💰 Odds: Guardians -151, White Sox +124 | Total: 9.0

🔥 Top Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-110)
🔹 Shinnosuke Ogasawara (WSH): 0-1, 13.50 ERA — crushed in debut
🔹 Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 1-0, 1.50 ERA — dominant return
🔍 Brewers are hot and face a rookie who was overwhelmed in debut. Woodruff is sharp and Yelich mashes rookies.
💰 Odds: Brewers -273, Nationals +217 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-105)
🔹 Jacob deGrom (TEX): 9-2, 2.29 ERA — elite form
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 10-4, 2.90 ERA — Astros won his last 5
🔍 Both aces have been lights-out and line movement suggests a pitcher’s duel. Houston’s offense scuffling.
💰 Odds: Astros -125, Rangers +103 | Total: 6.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
🔹 Zack Wheeler (PHI): 9-3, 2.17 ERA — shut out SD earlier
🔹 Yu Darvish (SD): 0-1, 4.91 ERA — not stretched out
🔍 Phillies have been dominant behind Wheeler. Padres’ offense weak vs RHP and Under trends strong here.
💰 Odds: Phillies -163, Padres +133 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-101)
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 7-9, 5.15 ERA — sharper recently
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 3-6, 3.02 ERA — great at home
🔍 Both pitchers trending up and both offenses inconsistent. Looks like a 4-3 type game.
💰 Odds: Angels -121, Dbacks -101 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 10.0 (-104)
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 6-6, 4.13 ERA — steady last 3 starts
🔹 Jacob Lopez (OAK): 2-5, 4.26 ERA — torched by TOR before
🔍 Toronto’s won 11 of 12 and handled Lopez before. A’s bullpen walks the park, but Gausman limits runs.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -144, Athletics +119 | Total: 10.0

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