Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers ML (-266) vs Mariners – 7:10 PM ET
Tarik Skubal (10-2, 2.02 ERA) has been untouchable at home with MLB’s best WHIP, while Seattle has been reeling, outscored 25–14 in a sweep by the Yankees. Detroit’s offense and elite lefty get the nod here.

Pirates/Twins Under 6.5 (+104) – 8:10 PM ET
Paul Skenes (1.94 ERA) and Joe Ryan (2.76 ERA) both excel at limiting damage and have combined for nine shutouts in their last 12 starts. With Pittsburgh’s anemic offense, this projects as a pitcher’s duel.

Brewers ML (-218) vs Nationals – 8:10 PM ET
Quinn Priester (3.59 ERA) has been sharp with a 3–0 record in his last five, and Milwaukee’s won 5 of 6, while Washington brings MLB’s worst bullpen ERA and a struggling Mitchell Parker on the hill.

All times EDT

📌 Note: Cleveland and Chicago will play a doubleheader at 3:10 PM and 8:10 PM ET after Thursday’s rainout.

🔥 Top Pick (Game 1): Over 9.0 (+101)
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 5-7, 4.07 ERA — solid lately, benefits from facing weak Sox lineup
🔹 Shane Smith (CHW): 3-7, 4.20 ERA — 21 ER in last 15⅓ innings, 5+ ER in 4 straight
🔍 Both offenses have struggled all year, but Smith’s implosion and Cleveland’s chance to exploit a poor bullpen suggest runs.
💰 Odds: CLE -126, CHW +104 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-115)
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA): 3-3, 3.33 ERA — solid, but Marlins SPs own MLB’s worst road ERA
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 7-7, 4.53 ERA — coming off rough outing, but Baltimore has won 5 of 6
🔍 Both lineups have cooled off and tend toward the Under; Baltimore’s recent momentum is offset by their rotation struggles.
💰 Odds: BAL -142, MIA +117 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-123)
🔹 Chris Flexen (CHC): 5-0, 0.83 ERA — brilliant in relief, now starting
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 9-6, 3.30 ERA — volatile, 7 ER in last start
🔍 Two powerful lineups — Cubs lead MLB in road slugging and Yankees own MLB’s best OPS vs lefties — against inconsistent starters
💰 Odds: NYY -185, CHC +151 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-124)
🔹 Germán Márquez (COL): 3-10, 5.84 ERA — brutal on the road (.324 opp. avg.)
🔹 Chase Burns (CIN): 0-1, 8.10 ERA — high strikeout rate, but unproven
🔍 Two weak arms, bad bullpens, and the Reds having swept COL earlier set up another high-scoring affair.
💰 Odds: CIN -252, COL +201 | Total: 9.0

🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-266)
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 5-5, 3.31 ERA — strong last outing but shaky on the road
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 10-2, 2.02 ERA — MLB’s best WHIP, unhittable at home
🔍 Seattle’s bats have cooled, and Detroit’s hot streak + elite lefty make this a lopsided matchup.
💰 Odds: DET -266, SEA +212 | Total: 7.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-119)
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 7-5, 2.82 ERA — effective, heavy groundballs
🔹 Hunter Dobbins (BOS): 4-1, 4.10 ERA — better underlying metrics
🔍 Boston’s seven-game win streak & hot bats vs Rasmussen’s contact profile favors a high-scoring clash.
💰 Odds: BOS -118, TB -103 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-116)
🔹 Kodai Senga (NYM): 7-3, 1.47 ERA — dominant, Over K prop in 6 straight
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 4-9, 3.83 ERA — solid at home (2.81 ERA)
🔍 With two in-form starters and both lineups inconsistent, this one profiles as a low-scoring duel.
💰 Odds: NYM -132, KC +108 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 4-6, 4.32 ERA — 1-4 on the road, Rangers have lost 5 straight of his starts
🔹 Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU): 2-3, 5.82 ERA — shaky since returning
🔍 Both starters have been hittable, and both offenses have produced well lately, making the Over attractive.
💰 Odds: HOU -126, TEX +104 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 6.5 (+104)
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 4-7, 1.94 ERA — rookie phenom with four shutouts in last six
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 8-4, 2.76 ERA — excellent command, tough at home
🔍 Both teams struggle to score and feature elite starters. A classic low-run spot.
💰 Odds: MIN -143, PIT +117 | Total: 6.5

🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (-218)
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 5-9, 4.72 ERA — 5.66 road ERA, battered last outing
🔹 Quinn Priester (MIL): 6-2, 3.59 ERA — 3-0 with 3.00 ERA in last 5
🔍 Brewers have won 5 of 6 while Washington’s bullpen has MLB’s worst ERA. Milwaukee should roll.
💰 Odds: MIL -218, WSH +176 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-121)
🔹 Grant Holmes (ATL): 4-8, 3.44 ERA — elite 1st-time-through-the-order stats
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 6-6, 3.70 ERA — excellent control, 0.00 ERA vs ATL in career
🔍 Braves are in a funk (2–8 last 10) while Cardinals tend to play tight at home.
💰 Odds: STL -120, ATL -102 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-122)
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 5-2, 3.39 ERA — five ER in last five starts combined
🔹 Tyler Anderson (LAA): 2-6, 4.19 ERA — 6.93 ERA in June
🔍 Both lineups have pop and the Angels have gone Over in 6 straight home games.
💰 Odds: ARI -116, LAA -105 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-109)
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 7-2, 1.99 ERA — dominant vs SD historically (2.03 ERA)
🔹 Ryan Bergert (SD): 1-0, 2.67 ERA — short outings, effective
🔍 Both offenses have underwhelmed lately, Petco plays big, and Suárez is elite at contact suppression.
💰 Odds: PHI -167, SD +137 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 11.0 (-102)
🔹 Max Scherzer (TOR): 0-0, 4.76 ERA — still building back after injury
🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 2-10, 5.30 ERA — 0-8 at home with 7.04 ERA
🔍 Both starters are vulnerable, and Toronto’s offense should feast.
💰 Odds: TOR -171, OAK +140 | Total: 11.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-108)
🔹 Dustin May (LAD): 5-5, 4.52 ERA — better at home, but capable of missing bats
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 8-6, 2.62 ERA — dominant at Oracle Park (1.52 ERA)
🔍 Giants games go Under often with Webb at home, and Dodgers’ bats are slumping.
💰 Odds: SF -132, LAD +108 | Total: 7.5

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