Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Mets/Orioles Over 9.0 (-123) – 12:05 PM ET
David Peterson’s road ERA (4.44) and Charlie Morton’s shaky start to the year (5.47 ERA overall) set up a high-scoring opener. The Mets’ offense ranks 5th in OPS vs righties and Baltimore ranks dead last vs lefties, but both pitchers have been inconsistent.

Mariners ML (-109) vs Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
Bryan Woo (8-4, 2.77 ERA) has been dominant over his last 4 starts, while Stroman (7.45 ERA) is still shaking off rust after injury. Seattle’s road OPS (.265) and Woo’s form give them an edge despite New York’s home-field advantage.

Diamondbacks/Padres Under 8.5 (+100) – 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park suppresses runs (27th in run factor), and both pitchers—Vásquez (3.79 ERA) and Rodríguez (5.78 but improved in June)—can limit damage. Arizona’s bats have power but this park and matchup lean under.

All times EDT

🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.0 (-123)
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 6-4, 3.18 ERA — but just 1-4, 4.44 ERA on the road
🔹 Charlie Morton (BAL): 5-7, 5.47 ERA — recent 2.97 ERA last 7 starts shows improvement
🔍 The Mets are surging offensively and face a Baltimore lineup that struggles badly against lefties (.322 slugging). Both starters have been shaky at times. With Citi Field’s safety gone and Camden’s hitter-friendliness, this leans over.
💰 Odds: Mets -105, Orioles -116 | Total: 10.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-113)
🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 6-3, 4.13 ERA — 3 ER or fewer in 7 of last 9
🔹 Chris Paddack (MIN): 3-7, 4.64 ERA — vulnerable early; 5+ ER in 4 of last 8
🔍 Cubs’ bats (.467 road SLG) face a Twins team missing Buxton and pitching a first-inning-prone Paddack. Chicago needs to salvage the series after dropping two straight. Runs should come early and often.
💰 Odds: Cubs -116, Twins -105 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-122)
🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 3-7, 5.40 ERA — no quality starts this season
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 5-6, 3.58 ERA — steady but not dominant
🔍 Great American Ball Park boosts scoring, and both bullpens are shaky. With Elly De La Cruz hot and Miami’s road ERA (6.08) worst in MLB, expect runs.
💰 Odds: Reds -172, Marlins +141 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 10.5 (-115)
🔹 Mets: TBD
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 6-5, 4.44 ERA
💰 Odds: Mets -105, Orioles -116 | Total: 10.5

🔥 Top Pick: Mariners ML (-109)
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 8-4, 2.77 ERA — 25 innings, 2 ER last 4 starts
🔹 Marcus Stroman (NYY): 1-1, 7.45 ERA — just 10 innings since returning
🔍 Woo’s sharp form against a Yankees lineup that’s hot but faces a strong road pitcher. Yankees have won three straight but Stroman is still finding himself.
💰 Odds: Yankees -112, Mariners -109 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-121)
🔹 Taj Bradley (TB): 5-6, 4.79 ERA — too many baserunners
🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 6-6, 6.25 ERA — control issues, elevated WHIP
🔍 Both teams come in hot offensively (Boston on a 6-game streak) with streaking hitters. Fenway’s run-friendly nature plus shaky starters lean to the over.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -115, Rays -106 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-113)
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 5-7, 4.07 ERA — 2 quality starts in last 3
🔹 Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 3-7, 4.50 ERA — poor history vs CLE (7.59 ERA)
🔍 Both teams struggle to score (OPS near bottom of MLB), and José Ramírez stays hot. Guardians have won 3 straight but this feels like a tight, low-scoring affair.
💰 Odds: Guardians -132, White Sox +108 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-102)
🔹 Michael Soroka (WSH): 3-6, 5.40 ERA — 7 runs in last outing
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 4-6, 5.26 ERA — 14 runs in last 10 innings
🔍 Both starters are struggling, and with James Wood hot (24 HR, .287), expect fireworks. St. Louis bullpen steadier, but early runs likely.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -144, Nationals +118 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-110)
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 3-7, 3.93 ERA — big strikeout potential
🔹 JP Sears (OAK): 7-7, 4.76 ERA — 18 HR allowed this year
🔍 Braves’ bats woke up yesterday, and Sears struggles at home. Sutter Health Park has been playing hitter-friendly, and Ronald Acuña Jr. looks locked in.
💰 Odds: Braves -166, Athletics +136 | Total: 10.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-118)
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 5-7, 4.18 ERA — solid but hittable
🔹 Jack Kochanowicz (LAA): 3-8, 5.42 ERA — inconsistent all year
🔍 Both pitchers have high WHIPs and both teams have hot bats lately. With Josh Smith and Corey Seager streaking, this should lean over.
💰 Odds: Angels -113, Rangers -107 | Total: 9.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
🔹 Eduardo Rodríguez (ARI): 3-5, 5.78 ERA — better recently
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 3-4, 3.79 ERA — sharp at home
🔍 Both teams’ offenses are good, but Petco suppresses runs. Arizona’s power meets a stingy Padres pen and pitcher-friendly park—lean under.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -121, Padres -101 | Total: 8.5

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