Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers ML (-156) @ Nationals – 6:45 PM ET
Detroit gets a soft matchup against Trevor Williams, who's posted a 5.89 ERA at home and is 0-4 in his last five starts. Despite Flaherty's inconsistency, the Tigers have won 5 of 7 and face a Nats team that's 16-24 at home.

Under 8.5 (-118) – Padres @ Phillies – 6:35 PM ET
Pivetta and Sánchez both come in with ERAs under 3.40, while seven of Philly’s last eight have gone under. The Padres are the league’s most aggressive team on two-strike pitches, which plays into Sánchez’s changeup.

Under 8.0 (-113) – Guardians @ Cubs – 8:05 PM ET
Cleveland is batting just .198 in righty-righty matchups — worst in MLB — and now faces Matthew Boyd, who has 11 quality starts in 16 outings. The Guardians have averaged just 6.2 hits per game over their last 10.

All times EDT

New York Yankees (48-36) @ Toronto Blue Jays (46-38) – 3:07 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-105)
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 10-2, 1.92 ERA, 104 SO – Yankees 13-4 in his starts
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 6-6, 4.21 ERA, 90 SO – 4.54 ERA at home
🔍 The Yankees lean on Fried, who’s dominated the Jays with a 0.72 ERA in 3 career starts. But Toronto has won 4 of 5 and is 13-4 in their last 17 at home. With both lineups heating up, this leans over in a hitter-friendly matinee.
💰 Odds: Yankees -158, Blue Jays +129 | Total: 8.0

San Diego Padres (45-39) @ Philadelphia Phillies (50-35) – 6:35 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (-118)
🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 8-2, 3.36 ERA, 101 SO – 0-1, 9.00 ERA vs PHI
🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 6-2, 2.79 ERA, 103 SO – 2.31 ERA at home
🔍 Pivetta returns to face his former club, but it's Sánchez’s home dominance that tips this one under. Philly’s last 8 games have gone under, and the Padres are prone to chase out of the zone.
💰 Odds: Phillies -171, Padres +139 | Total: 8.5

St. Louis Cardinals (47-39) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (36-50) – 6:40 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-123)
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 5-4, 4.43 ERA, 60 SO – labored through 5 IP in last outing
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 4-7, 2.12 ERA, 110 SO – 5.25 ERA in 2 starts vs STL
🔍 Skenes returns home as the Pirates ride a 4-game win streak, outscoring opponents 37-10. The Cards and Bucs both rank bottom-3 in divisional batting average, suggesting a grind-it-out affair.
💰 Odds: Pirates -169, Cardinals +138 | Total: 7.5

Minnesota Twins (40-44) @ Miami Marlins (37-45) – 6:40 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-105)
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 8-3, 2.86 ERA, 104 SO – 5 wins in last 6 night starts
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA): 2-2, 3.78 ERA, 69 SO – 26 SO in last 24.1 IP
🔍 Miami has won 7 straight as underdogs, but Ryan’s elite strikeout rate and Marlins’ .254 average lean this one under in a pitcher-friendly park.
💰 Odds: Twins -149, Marlins +122 | Total: 7.5

Detroit Tigers (53-32) @ Washington Nationals (35-49) – 6:45 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-156)
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 5-9, 4.80 ERA, 100 SO – 3.78 career ERA vs WSH
🔹 Trevor Williams (WSH): 3-9, 5.65 ERA, 61 SO – 5.89 ERA at home
🔍 Williams is 0-4 in his last five, and Detroit feasts on lefties with an .800 OPS. Add in Washington’s 5.73 bullpen ERA at home, and the edge swings to Detroit.
💰 Odds: Tigers -156, Nationals +128 | Total: 9.5

Sacramento Athletics (35-52) @ Tampa Bay Rays (47-38) – 7:05 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (+101)
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 6-6, 4.30 ERA – faces former team
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 8-3, 4.37 ERA – 4-0, 3.26 ERA in June
🔍 Baz has won 3 straight and dominated Oakland in past matchups. With the A’s bullpen allowing a .415 OBP with RISP, Tampa should handle this without pushing the total.
💰 Odds: Rays -163, Athletics +133 | Total: 8.5

Cincinnati Reds (44-41) @ Boston Red Sox (42-44) – 7:10 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-107)
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 7-6, 4.31 ERA – 4 ER in last start
🔹 Richard Fitts (BOS): 0-3, 4.68 ERA – 0-5 over last 5 starts
🔍 Monday’s 13-6 slugfest showed both bullpens' issues (combined 6.23 ERA last 5 games). Abreu’s hot bat and weak relievers make this one a clear over spot.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -114, Reds -106 | Total: 10.0

Milwaukee Brewers (47-37) @ New York Mets (48-37) – 7:10 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (-116)
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 8-4, 2.90 ERA – 10 ER in last 28 IP
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 8-4, 2.97 ERA – 2.93 ERA in June
🔍 Milwaukee’s starters allow the lowest OPS with RISP (.545), while the Mets hit .217 in those spots. Two in-form arms and struggling offenses set up an under.
💰 Odds: Mets -127, Brewers +104 | Total: 8.5

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Los Angeles Angels (41-42) @ Atlanta Braves (38-45) – 7:15 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-110)
🔹 Tyler Anderson (LAA): 2-5, 4.41 ERA – 6.26 ERA on road
🔹 Didier Fuentes (ATL): 0-2, 10.80 ERA – 14 H in 8.1 IP
🔍 With both starters scuffling and the Angels averaging 6 runs/game on the road lately, this has fireworks written all over it. Ward and Olson could trade long balls.
💰 Odds: Braves -164, Angels +134 | Total: 9.5

Cleveland Guardians (40-42) @ Chicago Cubs (49-35) – 8:05 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-113)
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 5-3, 3.68 ERA – 5 quality starts
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 7-3, 2.65 ERA – 11 QS in 16 starts
🔍 The Guardians are hitting .198 in righty-righty matchups, worst in MLB. Boyd has been elite, and both offenses are cold—expect a quiet night at Wrigley.
💰 Odds: Cubs -176, Guardians +144 | Total: 8.0

Baltimore Orioles (37-47) @ Texas Rangers (41-44) – 8:05 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.0 (+101)
🔹 Brandon Young (BAL): 0-2, 7.11 ERA – 4 ER vs TEX last week
🔹 Jacob deGrom (TEX): 8-2, 2.08 ERA – 5 straight QS
🔍 DeGrom shut out the O’s last week and faces them again with Texas coming off 4 extra-inning games. Baltimore’s 5.27 SP ERA ranks third-worst, but deGrom should suppress scoring.
💰 Odds: Rangers -218, Orioles +176 | Total: 7.0

Houston Astros (50-34) @ Colorado Rockies (19-65) – 8:40 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 11.0 (-116)
🔹 Colton Gordon (HOU): 3-1, 3.98 ERA – 2.14 ERA in June
🔹 Chase Dollander (COL): 2-8, 6.06 ERA – 7.12 ERA at home
🔍 Houston’s bats are scorching (19-7 in June), while Colorado’s pitching is historically bad. With Coors inflating scoring 32% above average, expect this one to fly past the total.
💰 Odds: Astros -181, Rockies +148 | Total: 11.0

Kansas City Royals (39-46) @ Seattle Mariners (44-40) – 9:40 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-117)
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 4-8, 4.91 ERA – 73 SO in 88 IP
🔹 Emerson Hancock (SEA): 3-4, 5.30 ERA – 2 ER in last start
🔍 T-Mobile has played as MLB’s most pitcher-friendly park. With KC's .665 June OPS and low strikeout rate, this shapes up as a low-scoring grind.
💰 Odds: Mariners -144, Royals +118 | Total: 8.5

San Francisco Giants (45-40) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (42-42) – 9:40 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-121)
🔹 Hayden Birdsong (SF): 3-2, 4.13 ERA – 14 ER in last 3 starts
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 5-9, 5.75 ERA – 11 ER in last 2 starts
🔍 Gallen’s ERA has ballooned, and Birdsong has struggled badly in recent outings. Arizona mashes righties (.464 SLG), so expect crooked numbers here.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -137, Giants +112 | Total: 9.0

Chicago White Sox (28-56) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (53-32) – 10:10 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-118)
🔹 Shane Smith (CWS): 3-5, 3.38 ERA – 4.21 ERA on the road
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 7-6, 2.61 ERA – 2.13 ERA at home
🔍 Yamamoto has held hitters to a .198 average at Dodger Stadium. Chicago’s offense ranks dead last in OPS vs righties, and the under is seeing sharp money.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -335, White Sox +261 | Total: 8.5

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