Monday's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Brewers ML (+134) vs Braves – 7:40 PM ET
Chris Sale’s been elite (1.43 ERA over last 8), but Atlanta’s lost 7 straight and 14 of 17. Milwaukee’s won 7 of 10, and the bullpen (3.56 ERA) gives them the late-game edge at plus money.

Reds +1.5 (-165) @ Guardians – 6:40 PM ET
Cincinnati’s won 5 of 6 and is 18-15 on the road. Guardians are slugging just .319 vs lefties and face a shaky Wade Miley, but sharp action suggests a close game. Taking the run.

Blue Jays ML (-105) @ Cardinals – 7:45 PM ET
Toronto's 8-2 in its last 10, and Berríos owns St. Louis (3.16 ERA in 5 starts). Cards have hit well at home, but Jays have MLB’s lowest whiff rate and best K rate vs RHP.

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Cincinnati Reds (33-33, .500) @ Cleveland Guardians (34-30, .531) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Wade Miley (CIN): 0-0, 18.00 ERA — first start of the season
🔹 Luis L. Ortiz (CLE): 3-6, 4.02 ERA, 71 SO — solid but inconsistent
🔍 Reds just swept Arizona and are 7-2 as dogs in their last nine. Cleveland bats .203 in RvR matchups and .319 vs LHP—both bottom 2 in MLB.
Odds: Guardians -163, Reds +133 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Reds +1.5 (-165)

Miami Marlins (24-39, .381) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (26-40, .394) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Eury Pérez (MIA): Season debut — likely limited to 70–80 pitches
🔹 Mike Burrows (PIT): 1-1, 5.27 ERA, 11 SO — shaky but familiar mound
🔍 Perez returns from injury vs a Pirates team that just swept Philly. Marlins own MLB’s worst road ERA (5.63), while PIT ranks last in OPS (.643).
Odds: Pirates -115, Marlins -105 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-103)

Chicago Cubs (40-25, .615) @ Philadelphia Phillies (37-28, .569) – 6:45 PM
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 5-3, 3.01 ERA, 70 SO — 7.1 strong innings vs WSH last start
🔹 Zack Wheeler (PHI): 6-2, 2.96 ERA, 94 SO — 2 ER or fewer in 9 of 12 starts
🔍 Phillies are 1-9 in last 10 and missing Bryce Harper. Cubs lead MLB in road OPS (.816) and slugging (.484).
Odds: Phillies -132, Cubs +109 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-106)

Tampa Bay Rays (35-30, .538) @ Boston Red Sox (32-35, .478) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 5-3, 4.96 ERA, 60 SO — 3.88 road ERA, trending up
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 2-1, 3.91 ERA, 33 SO — inconsistent but serviceable
🔍 Rays lead MLB in double plays and win 55% of road games. Sox bats are hot (9 runs/game vs NYY), but pitching has posted league-worst 6.33 ERA over past week.
Odds: Red Sox -115, Rays -105 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Rays ML (-105)

Atlanta Braves (27-37, .422) @ Milwaukee Brewers (35-31, .530) – 7:40 PM
🔹 Chris Sale (ATL): 3-4, 2.93 ERA, 96 SO — 1.43 ERA over last 8 starts
🔹 Aaron Civale (MIL): 1-1, 5.19 ERA, 14 SO — vulnerable early
🔍 Braves have lost 7 straight and 14 of 17. Brewers have the NL’s 5th-best bullpen ERA and Jackson Chourio is slugging .520 vs LHP.
Odds: Braves -164, Brewers +134 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (+134)

Toronto Blue Jays (35-30, .538) @ St. Louis Cardinals (36-29, .554) – 7:45 PM
🔹 José Berríos (TOR): 2-2, 3.67 ERA, 70 SO — owns STL (3.16 ERA in last 5 vs them)
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 4-3, 4.91 ERA, 44 SO — limited experience vs TOR
🔍 Blue Jays lead MLB in lowest swing-and-miss rate and Ks vs RHP. Cards hit .278 at home, but Toronto's won 8 of 10.
Odds: Cardinals -115, Blue Jays -105 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Blue Jays ML (-105)

Oakland Athletics (26-41, .388) @ Los Angeles Angels (30-34, .469) – 9:38 PM
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 5-4, 4.66 ERA — efficient over 67.2 IP
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 1-5, 3.23 ERA, 63 SO — solid ERA, low win support
🔍 A's lead MLB batting .279 vs SPs and .260 with two outs. Angels strike out 27% of the time, highest in MLB.
Odds: Angels -158, A’s +128 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-105)

Los Angeles Dodgers (39-27, .591) @ San Diego Padres (37-27, .578) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Dustin May (LAD): 3-4, 4.09 ERA, 63 SO — inconsistent on road
🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 6-2, 3.16 ERA, 76 SO — 2.64 ERA at home
🔍 Padres bat .296 vs division foes and Machado owns LAD pitching (.321 career BA). Dodgers have allowed 129 runs in 31 road games.
Odds: Dodgers -121, Padres -101 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Padres ML (-101)

Seattle Mariners (33-31, .516) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (31-34, .477) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Emerson Hancock (SEA): 2-2, 5.19 ERA, 38 SO — 2 ER or fewer in 3 of last 4
🔹 Merrill Kelly (ARI): 6-2, 3.43 ERA, 72 SO — coming off 7 scoreless vs ATL
🔍 D-backs lead MLB in slugging vs RHP (.468) and strike out just 20% of the time. Mariners are surprisingly top 3 in OBP and BA on the road.
Odds: Diamondbacks -171, Mariners +140 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-121)

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