Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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🔥 Top Picks

Twins -1.5 (+118) vs Blue Jays – 2:10 PM ET
Joe Ryan (2.91 ERA) ranks 18th among all SPs and faces MLB’s lowest strikeout rate lineup. But Toronto’s starter Bowden Francis owns a 5.84 ERA and 2-7 record, making this a bounce-back spot for a Twins team desperate to avoid a sweep.

Brewers ML (-181) vs Padres – 1:05 PM ET
Milwaukee’s won 8 of 10 and boasts a 19-11 home record. Freddy Peralta (2.92 ERA, 75 K) faces Padres rookie Ryan Bergert (2.00 ERA, 5.58 xFIP), who’s likely due for regression.

Yankees -1.5 (-110) vs Red Sox – 7:10 PM ET
Carlos Rodón (2.49 ERA, 98 K) faces a Boston bullpen game led by rookie Hunter Dobbins. New York leads the AL in runs (5.4/game) and destroys LHP (.838 OPS), setting up a strong Sunday night edge.

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⚾ Game Previews

All times EDT

Miami Marlins (24-38) @ Tampa Bay Rays (34-30) – 12:10 PM ET
🔹 Anthony Veneziano (MIA): 0-0, 4.58 ERA, 17 SO — 1.53 WHIP across 17.2 IP
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 5-4, 2.14 ERA, 56 SO — 4 straight shutout outings
🔍 Rays are 4-1 in their last five and have the bullpen edge. Miami allows 6.04 runs/game on the road and owns MLB’s worst road ERA (6.64).
Odds: Rays -231, Marlins +186 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Rays -1.5 (-110)

San Diego Padres (36-27) @ Milwaukee Brewers (35-30) – 1:05 PM ET
🔹 Ryan Bergert (SD): 1-0, 2.00 ERA, 4 SO — limited MLB exposure
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 5-4, 2.92 ERA, 75 SO — Brewers lead MLB in in-zone K%
🔍 Milwaukee has won 8 of 10 and boasts the league’s most dominant starting pitching K metrics. Padres struggle vs elite righties.
Odds: Brewers -181, Padres +148 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (-181)

Texas Rangers (30-35) @ Washington Nationals (30-34) – 1:35 PM ET
🔹 Jacob Latz (TEX): 0-0, 2.95 ERA, 20 SO — likely opener in bullpen game
🔹 Trevor Williams (WSH): 3-6, 6.03 ERA, 47 SO — 4.21 xFIP suggests slight improvement
🔍 Texas owns MLB’s 4th-worst road win rate (31%). Washington’s bullpen ranks top 10 and could tip the balance.
Odds: Rangers -126, Nationals +104 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-120)

Philadelphia Phillies (37-27) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (25-40) – 1:35 PM ET
🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 5-1, 3.15 ERA, 74 SO — elite vs LHB
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 4-6, 2.05 ERA, 85 SO — under is 8-2 in his starts
🔍 Both teams rank bottom-5 in runs per game over the past 10. Philly’s offense is ice cold and Harper remains out.
Odds: Pirates -125, Phillies +103 | Total: 6.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-105)

Arizona Diamondbacks (31-33) @ Cincinnati Reds (32-33) – 1:40 PM ET
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 4-7, 5.13 ERA, 70 SO — 4+ ER in 7 of 13 starts
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 6-4, 4.66 ERA, 53 SO — inconsistent
🔍 Arizona’s .470 SLG vs RHP leads NL; both bullpens taxed after Saturday’s doubleheader.
Odds: D-backs -115, Reds -105 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-109)

Chicago Cubs (40-24) @ Detroit Tigers (42-24) – 1:40 PM ET
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 3-0, 3.51 ERA, 19 SO — Cubs 5-0 in his starts
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 4-6, 3.72 ERA, 76 SO — 11 HR allowed in 65 IP
🔍 Cubs lead MLB in road SLG (.492) and OPS (.827); Flaherty vulnerable to the long ball.
Odds: Tigers -115, Cubs -105 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-115)

Houston Astros (36-28) @ Cleveland Guardians (33-30) – 1:40 PM ET
🔹 Brandon Walter (HOU): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 SO — 5 scoreless IP in relief debut
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 4-6, 3.89 ERA, 56 SO — consistent but not overpowering
🔍 Astros bullpen elite; Guardians have scored just 2.2 runs/game over last 5.
Odds: Guardians -149, Astros +122 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Astros ML (+122)

Toronto Blue Jays (35-29) @ Minnesota Twins (34-30) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Bowden Francis (TOR): 2-7, 5.84 ERA, 48 SO — struggling
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 6-2, 2.91 ERA, 76 SO — 28.4% K rate
🔍 Toronto has won 9 of 10; Twins must avoid sweep but face red-hot, low-K Blue Jays.
Odds: Twins -181, Blue Jays +148 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Twins -1.5 (+118)

Kansas City Royals (33-32) @ Chicago White Sox (22-43) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 3-6, 5.12 ERA, 54 SO — inconsistent
🔹 Mike Vasil (CHW): 3-2, 1.89 ERA, 27 SO — stretched to 70 pitches max
🔍 Royals slug just 6.9% Barrel rate (29th in MLB); Sox .214 AVG w/2 strikes (worst).
Odds: Royals -126, White Sox +104 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-114)

Los Angeles Dodgers (38-27) @ St. Louis Cardinals (36-28) – 2:15 PM ET
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 0-0, 5.17 ERA, 8 SO — still ramping up
🔹 Michael McGreevy (STL): 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 SO — 5.2 scoreless in debut
🔍 Dodgers lead NL in HR rate; STL has MLB’s lowest whiff rate on the mound.
Odds: Dodgers -137, Cardinals +113 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-119)

New York Mets (41-24) @ Colorado Rockies (12-52) – 3:10 PM ET
🔹 Tylor Megill (NYM): 4-4, 3.77 ERA, 79 SO — faces MLB’s highest K-rate offense
🔹 Chase Dollander (COL): 2-5, 6.26 ERA, 39 SO — major struggles
🔍 Mets 4-0 vs Rockies this year; Colorado owns worst home record in MLB (6-24).
Odds: Mets -279, Rockies +221 | Total: 10.5
✅ Best Bet: Mets -1.5 (-125)

Baltimore Orioles (26-37) @ Oakland Athletics (25-41) – 4:05 PM ET
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 5-3, 3.04 ERA, 40 SO — coming off 7 IP, 1 ER
🔹 Jacob Lopez (OAK): 0-4, 7.20 ERA, 26 SO — gave up 7 ER in 2 IP last start
🔍 A’s allow most runs per game (6.11) and walk 10% of batters.
Odds: Orioles -144, Athletics +118 | Total: 11.0
✅ Best Bet: Orioles ML (-144)

Atlanta Braves (27-36) @ San Francisco Giants (37-28) – 4:05 PM ET
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 0-4, 5.68 ERA, 19 SO — trying to regain form
🔹 Landen Roupp (SF): 3-4, 3.18 ERA, 61 SO — reliable
🔍 Giants have MLB’s best bullpen; SF leads league with 8 walk-off wins.
Odds: Braves -120, Giants -102 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Giants ML (+102)

Seattle Mariners (32-31) @ Los Angeles Angels (30-33) – 4:07 PM ET
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 0-3, 8.56 ERA, 11 SO — 5+ ER in every start
🔹 Tyler Anderson (LAA): 2-2, 3.86 ERA, 51 SO — 4+ ER in 3 of last 4
🔍 Seattle’s lost 5 straight; Angels going for sweep behind hot Jo Adell (2 HR Saturday).
Odds: Mariners -132, Angels +108 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-123)

Boston Red Sox (31-35) @ New York Yankees (39-24) – 7:10 PM ET
🔹 Hunter Dobbins (BOS): 2-1, 4.06 ERA, 37 SO — likely part of bullpen game
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 8-3, 2.49 ERA, 98 SO — 3 straight starts w/8+ Ks
🔍 Yankees lead AL in runs and dominate LHP; Boston hits .275 vs lefties (1st in MLB).
Odds: Yankees -229, Red Sox +184 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-110)

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