Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

We deliver concise daily MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re always informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

Follow us on Twitter for more. Reply to this email with your thoughts, bets, or anything else — we read every response.

Sponsored

🔥 Top Picks

Royals -1.5 (+110) @ White Sox – 4:10 PM ET
Michael Wacha’s 2.08 ERA over his last 5 starts meets MLB’s worst slugging offense vs RHP (.334). KC ranks 2nd in strikeout avoidance; Houser is projected to regress with a 3.62 xFIP and just 3.5 K per start.

Under 7.5 (-108) – Red Sox @ Yankees – 7:35 PM ET
Crochet (1.98 ERA, 101 K) and Yarbrough (2.83 ERA) headline a razor-tight pitcher’s duel. Both teams rank top-5 in OPS vs LHP, but these southpaws have kept lineups in check all year.

Mariners -1.5 (+105) @ Angels – 9:38 PM ET
Seattle’s slugging .750 on first pitches, and Kochanowicz has walked 10 in his last 3 starts. Luis Castillo (3.03 ERA) is consistent and has owned the Angels in his career.

Sponsored

Learn AI in 5 minutes a day

What’s the secret to staying ahead of the curve in the world of AI? Information. Luckily, you can join 1,000,000+ early adopters reading The Rundown AI — the free newsletter that makes you smarter on AI with just a 5-minute read per day.

Sign up to start learning.

⚾ Game Previews

All times EDT

Chicago Cubs (39-24) @ Detroit Tigers (42-23) – 1:10 PM ET
🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 5-3, 3.76 ERA, 53 SO
🔹 Tyler Holton (DET): 2-2, 4.13 ERA, 25 SO
🔍 Detroit has won 5 straight at home and owns MLB’s best record (.646). Cubs slug .488 on the road (1st in MLB) but Taillon’s road ERA sits at 4.96.
Odds: Cubs -122, Tigers +100 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-112)

Arizona Diamondbacks (31-31) @ Cincinnati Reds (30-33) – 2:10 PM ET (Game 1)
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 1-3, 6.70 ERA, 55 SO
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 4-4, 3.21 ERA, 64 SO
🔍 Arizona's won 3 straight after sweeping ATL, but Rodriguez owns a 6.70 ERA. Lodolo is sharp at home and faces a team he held to 1 ER last season.
Odds: ARI -119, CIN -102 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-119)

Toronto Blue Jays (34-29) @ Minnesota Twins (34-29) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 5-4, 3.82 ERA, 68 SO
🔹 Chris Paddack (MIN): 2-5, 3.58 ERA, 50 SO
🔍 Both teams are red-hot (8-1 TOR last 9; 3-2 MIN last 5). Toronto leads MLB in strikeout avoidance, and Paddack’s 1.61 ERA over last 5 starts is due for regression.
Odds: MIN -110, TOR -110 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-113)

Los Angeles Dodgers (38-26) @ St. Louis Cardinals (35-28) – 2:15 PM ET
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 6-4, 2.39 ERA, 77 SO
🔹 Erick Fedde (STL): 3-5, 3.82 ERA, 44 SO
🔍 Dodgers were shut out Friday and have scored just 3.2 runs per game over last 5. Fedde has a 3.00 ERA vs LAD, but Yamamoto’s been elite and could reset LA.
Odds: LAD -194, STL +157 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-114)

Texas Rangers (29-35) @ Washington Nationals (30-33) – 4:05 PM ET
🔹 Jacob deGrom (TEX): 5-2, 2.34 ERA, 66 SO
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 4-5, 4.71 ERA, 42 SO
🔍 Rangers have been shut out 2 straight and rank 27th in wOBA vs LHP. Parker is hittable, but deGrom’s .204 BAA over last 3 starts is dominant.
Odds: TEX -175, WSH +143 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-106)

Philadelphia Phillies (37-26) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (24-40) – 4:05 PM ET
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 4-0, 2.72 ERA, 33 SO
🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 3-4, 3.39 ERA, 47 SO
🔍 Suarez has 8 quality starts in last 9 outings, and PIT ranks last in NL in SLG (.339). PHI’s on a 3-game skid but has a strong pitching edge.
Odds: PHI -156, PIT +128 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Phillies ML (-156)

Atlanta Braves (27-35) @ San Francisco Giants (36-28) – 4:05 PM ET
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 2-3, 4.56 ERA, 37 SO
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 5-5, 2.55 ERA, 91 SO
🔍 Giants have won 4 of 5; Braves have lost 5 straight. Webb owns a 2.55 ERA and is elite at home. ATL is 32% on the road.
Odds: SF -156, ATL +128 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Giants ML (-156)

Arizona Diamondbacks (31-31) @ Cincinnati Reds (30-33) – 4:10 PM ET (Game 2)
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 2-1, 3.43 ERA, 35 SO
🔹 Nick Martinez (CIN): 3-6, 3.89 ERA, 47 SO
🔍 D-Backs lead MLB with .816 OPS vs RHP; Reds struggle with ground ball rate. Nelson’s last start: 6.2 scoreless.
Odds: ARI -119, CIN -102 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-119)

Houston Astros (35-28) @ Cleveland Guardians (33-29) – 4:10 PM ET
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 8-3, 1.83 ERA, 84 SO
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 5-3, 3.79 ERA, 66 SO
🔍 Astros have won 6 of 7 vs CLE and 9 of last 12 overall. Guardians have the 24th ranked offense and shaky pen.
Odds: HOU -119, CLE -102 | Total: 7.0
✅ Best Bet: Astros ML (-119)

Kansas City Royals (33-31) @ Chicago White Sox (21-43) – 4:10 PM ET
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 3-4, 2.88 ERA, 50 SO
🔹 Adrian Houser (CWS): 1-1, 1.47 ERA, 14 SO
🔍 Royals crush low-strikeout arms and rank 2nd in strikeout avoidance. White Sox last in SLG vs RHP (.334).
Odds: KC -138, CWS +114 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Royals -1.5 (+110)

Miami Marlins (23-38) @ Tampa Bay Rays (34-29) – 4:10 PM ET
🔹 Ryan Weathers (MIA): 1-1, 2.49 ERA, 22 SO
🔹 Taj Bradley (TB): 4-5, 3.95 ERA, 64 SO
🔍 Rays have won 13 of 16; Marlins have lost 5 straight. Tampa’s held opponents under 4 runs in 17 straight games.
Odds: TB -156, MIA +128 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105)

Boston Red Sox (30-35) @ New York Yankees (39-23) – 7:35 PM ET
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 5-4, 1.98 ERA, 101 SO
🔹 Ryan Yarbrough (NYY): 3-0, 2.83 ERA, 40 SO
🔍 Crochet ranks 3rd in MLB in K/9 and faces Judge (.341 BA vs LHP but 28% K vs velo LHP). Both offenses rake vs LHP, but these arms are in form.
Odds: BOS -111, NYY -110 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-108)

San Diego Padres (36-26) @ Milwaukee Brewers (34-30) – 7:35 PM ET
🔹 Stephen Kolek (SD): 3-1, 3.47 ERA, 27 SO
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 4-1, 2.77 ERA, 27 SO
🔍 Padres pen holding hitters to .207 AVG. Brewers pitchers lead MLB in zone K%.
Odds: MIL -119, SD -102 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)

Seattle Mariners (32-30) @ Los Angeles Angels (29-33) – 9:38 PM ET
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 4-3, 3.03 ERA, 55 SO
🔹 Jack Kochanowicz (LAA): 3-7, 5.34 ERA, 44 SO
🔍 Kochanowicz has 10 BB in last 3 starts; Mariners slugging .750 on 1st pitch. Castillo has a 2.81 career ERA vs LAA.
Odds: SEA -164, LAA +133 | Total: 9.0
🔥 Top Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+105)

New York Mets (40-24) @ Colorado Rockies (12-51) – 9:40 PM ET
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 6-3, 3.07 ERA, 59 SO
🔹 Carson Palmquist (COL): 0-4, 8.50 ERA, 14 SO
🔍 Rockies are MLB-worst in record, OBP, and road batting. Mets rank 2nd in NL and are -298 favorites for good reason.
Odds: NYM -298, COL +235 | Total: 11.0
✅ Best Bet: Mets -1.5 (-150)

Baltimore Orioles (25-37) @ Oakland Athletics (25-40) – 10:05 PM ET
🔹 Charlie Morton (BAL): 2-7, 6.20 ERA, 52 SO
🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 1-5, 4.54 ERA, 55 SO
🔍 Jackson Holliday’s batting .356 last 12 games and faces Severino’s 6.99 home ERA. Wind blowing out in hitter’s park.
Odds: BAL -132, OAK +108 | Total: 10.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.5 (-110)

👀 New to Monte Carmelo?

Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:

🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…

Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info

Any Feedback?

Interested in making your own newsletter? Use the link below to receive a 30-day trial + 20% OFF for 3 months on Beehiiv! Reply to this email, and we’ll even help you get started with AI tips and tricks to jumpstart your journey