Friday's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

We deliver concise daily MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re always informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

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🔥 Top Picks

Tigers -1.5 (+115) vs Cubs – 7:10 PM ET
Tarik Skubal (2.26 ERA) is MLB’s top starter by advanced metrics and hasn’t allowed a run in 16 innings. Detroit is 21-8 at home and faces Ben Brown (5.72 ERA) and a Cubs team that struggles vs lefties.

Brewers ML (-148) vs Padres – 8:10 PM ET
Milwaukee’s won 9 of 10 and Chad Patrick (2.97 ERA) hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in a start. San Diego’s road OPS is just .689, and Randy Vasquez has struggled with walks and homers.

Royals -1.5 (+130) vs White Sox – 7:40 PM ET
KC is 4-3 in their last 7 and faces a White Sox lineup with the AL’s lowest slugging vs righties (.332). Seth Lugo gets the edge over Davis Martin in a favorable divisional tilt.

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⚾ Game Previews

All times EDT

Miami Marlins (23-37) @ Tampa Bay Rays (33-29) – 1:10 PM ET
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA, expected): 2-0, 2.00 ERA in May — refining sinker-heavy approach
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 5-5, 3.86 ERA, 48 SO — steady in recent outings
🔍 Rays are surging after a sweep of Texas; Marlins were just swept by Colorado and own MLB’s worst road starter ERA (6.73). Tampa’s elite double-play defense adds another edge.
Odds: Rays -155, Marlins +130 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Rays ML (-155)

Philadelphia Phillies (37-25) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (23-40) – 6:40 PM ET
🔹 Joe Ross (PHI): 2-1, 4.34 ERA — 2.82 ERA in 5 career starts vs PIT
🔹 Bailey Falter (PIT): 4-3, 3.14 ERA — 0 runs allowed in 4 of last 5 starts
🔍 Phillies have dropped 4 of 5; offense has scored just 4 runs in last 3 losses. Pirates slug just .339 vs righties, lowest in NL, but Falter has been sharp at home.
Odds: Phillies -135, Pirates +114 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-108)

Texas Rangers (29-34) @ Washington Nationals (29-33) – 6:45 PM ET
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 3-4, 3.71 ERA — returns to face former team
🔹 Michael Soroka (WSH): 2-3, 5.81 ERA — struggles with command
🔍 Rangers have been swept and are batting just .222 as a team. Marcus Semien’s heating up, but Corbin has the edge in a matchup of uneven lineups and shaky bullpens.
Odds: Rangers -122, Nationals +102 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-108)

Boston Red Sox (30-34) @ New York Yankees (38-23) – 7:05 PM ET
🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 4-3, 4.44 ERA — 3 quality starts, solid stretch
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 3-3, 5.19 ERA — inconsistent, but serviceable
🔍 Yankees are 5-0 vs teams under .500 and own MLB’s best OPS vs both lefties and righties. Devers has a modest 4-game hit streak for Boston.
Odds: Yankees -198, Red Sox +164 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Yankees ML (-198)

Arizona Diamondbacks (31-31) @ Cincinnati Reds (30-33) – 7:10 PM ET
🔹 SP: Arizona likely going bullpen game (Rodriguez IL)
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 4-4, 3.10 ERA, 60 SO — reliable lefty option
🔍 D-Backs hitters strike out just 17% vs lefties, best in MLB. Reds hit just .213 vs LHP with a .332 SLG. Game tilts on Arizona’s ability to patch together innings.
Odds: Diamondbacks -118, Reds -102 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-112)

Chicago Cubs (39-23) @ Detroit Tigers (41-23) – 7:10 PM ET
🔹 Ben Brown (CHC): 3-3, 5.72 ERA — vulnerable to fly balls
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 5-2, 2.26 ERA, 99 SO — 16 scoreless innings streak
🔍 Skubal dominates while Cubs strike out often. Detroit's 21-8 at home and riding their ace in a likely low-scoring affair.
Odds: Tigers -175, Cubs +145 | Total: 7.0
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+115)

Houston Astros (34-28) @ Cleveland Guardians (33-28) – 7:10 PM ET
🔹 Colton Gordon (HOU): 0-1, 5.95 ERA — allowing 1.22 hits per inning
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 3-3, 4.22 ERA — better at home (3.94 ERA)
🔍 Astros mash lefties (.788 OPS), and Peña (.335 BA vs LHP) could do damage. Game trends toward offense with winds blowing out and both starters shaky.
Odds: Astros -130, Guardians +110 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)

Kansas City Royals (33-30) @ Chicago White Sox (20-43) – 7:40 PM ET
🔹 Seth Lugo (KC): 3-5, 3.45 ERA — steady, low-walks righty
🔹 Davis Martin (CWS): 2-6, 3.67 ERA — capable, but low run support
🔍 Royals have won 4 of 7 and strike out the least vs RHP (18%). White Sox own worst AL slugging vs righties (.332). KC is set up to exploit the matchup.
Odds: Royals -155, White Sox +130 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Royals -1.5 (+130)

Toronto Blue Jays (33-29) @ Minnesota Twins (34-28) – 8:10 PM ET
🔹 Paxton Schultz (TOR): 0-0, 1.84 ERA — bullpen role likely
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 4-1, 3.48 ERA — 2.70 ERA in 4 career starts vs TOR
🔍 Blue Jays are hot—winners of 7 of 8 and lead MLB with 53 runs in last 7 games. Twins pitching has been stout at home, but Toronto’s bats may overpower.
Odds: Twins -155, Blue Jays +130 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-108)

San Diego Padres (35-26) @ Milwaukee Brewers (34-29) – 8:10 PM ET
🔹 Randy Vasquez (SD): 3-4, 3.99 ERA — vulnerable to righty power
🔹 Chad Patrick (MIL): 3-4, 2.97 ERA — 9 straight starts allowing ≤3 ER
🔍 Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10 and crush at home. Vasquez’s .487 SLG allowed to righties could be costly vs Chourio & co.
Odds: Brewers -148, Padres +124 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (-148)

Los Angeles Dodgers (38-25) @ St. Louis Cardinals (34-28) – 8:15 PM ET
🔹 Justin Wrobleski (LAD): 1-1, 8.00 ERA — emergency call-up
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 6-1, 3.65 ERA, 76 SO — 7 shutout IP in last start
🔍 Dodgers slug .567 with RISP (MLB-best), but Gray's command vs a young SP gives Cards the edge at home (20-10 record at Busch).
Odds: Cardinals -122, Dodgers +102 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Cardinals ML (-122)

New York Mets (39-24) @ Colorado Rockies (12-50) – 8:40 PM ET
🔹 Kodai Senga (NYM): 6-3, 1.60 ERA — elite form
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 1-10, 7.14 ERA — torched in May (9.10 ERA)
🔍 Mets swept Rockies last week, winning each by multiple runs. Rockies have MLB’s worst OBP (.279) and batting average (.216).
Odds: Mets -305, Rockies +245 | Total: 10.5
✅ Best Bet: Mets -1.5 (-125)

Seattle Mariners (32-29) @ Los Angeles Angels (28-33) – 9:38 PM ET
🔹 Bryce Miller (SEA): 2-4, 5.36 ERA — shaky on the road
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 2-6, 5.34 ERA — 14 HR allowed
🔍 Mariners have dropped 3 straight but face a soft Angels bullpen (4.98 ERA). Cal Raleigh is red-hot with 7 HR in last 10 and could feast on Hendricks’ flyball tendencies.
Odds: Mariners -135, Angels +114 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-102)

Baltimore Orioles (25-36) @ Oakland Athletics (24-40) – 10:05 PM ET
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 5-5, 4.70 ERA — solid during 6-game win streak
🔹 SP TBD (OAK): Likely JP Sears
🔍 Orioles have won 9 of 11, holding opponents to 11 runs during their streak. A’s have MLB’s worst ERA (5.79) and allow most runs.
Odds: Orioles -130, Athletics +110 | Total: 10.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.5 (-120)

Atlanta Braves (27-34) @ San Francisco Giants (35-28) – 10:15 PM ET
🔹 Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 4-4, 3.13 ERA — excellent control (1.03 WHIP)
🔹 Hayden Birdsong (SF): 3-1, 2.37 ERA — Giants have 2.22 ERA last 5 games
🔍 Braves have lost 4 straight and hit .220 during that span. Pitcher-friendly Oracle Park and two sharp young arms suggest a tight, low-scoring finish.
Odds: Braves -135, Giants +114 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-108)

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