Friday's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

⭐ Mets-Rockies mismatch, Skubal vs Cubs, and Brewers stay hot behind rising rookie arm

We deliver concise daily MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re always informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

Follow us on Twitter for more. Reply to this email with your thoughts, bets, or anything else — we read every response.

11 Surprising Money Mistakes Even Smart People Make

You’re smart about saving money, like shopping clearance racks, limiting eating out, and choosing affordable streaming services. However, there are still some cost-cutting tips you might not know yet. Once you discover these, you could quickly find extra cash in your pocket.

🔥 Top Picks

Tigers -1.5 (+115) vs Cubs – 7:10 PM ET
Tarik Skubal (2.26 ERA) is MLB’s top starter by advanced metrics and hasn’t allowed a run in 16 innings. Detroit is 21-8 at home and faces Ben Brown (5.72 ERA) and a Cubs team that struggles vs lefties.

Brewers ML (-148) vs Padres – 8:10 PM ET
Milwaukee’s won 9 of 10 and Chad Patrick (2.97 ERA) hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in a start. San Diego’s road OPS is just .689, and Randy Vasquez has struggled with walks and homers.

Royals -1.5 (+130) vs White Sox – 7:40 PM ET
KC is 4-3 in their last 7 and faces a White Sox lineup with the AL’s lowest slugging vs righties (.332). Seth Lugo gets the edge over Davis Martin in a favorable divisional tilt.

Sponsored

Daily News for Curious Minds

Be the smartest person in the room by reading 1440! Dive into 1440, where 4 million Americans find their daily, fact-based news fix. We navigate through 100+ sources to deliver a comprehensive roundup from every corner of the internet – politics, global events, business, and culture, all in a quick, 5-minute newsletter. It's completely free and devoid of bias or political influence, ensuring you get the facts straight. Subscribe to 1440 today.

⚾ Game Previews

All times EDT

Miami Marlins (23-37) @ Tampa Bay Rays (33-29) – 1:10 PM ET
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA, expected): 2-0, 2.00 ERA in May — refining sinker-heavy approach
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 5-5, 3.86 ERA, 48 SO — steady in recent outings
🔍 Rays are surging after a sweep of Texas; Marlins were just swept by Colorado and own MLB’s worst road starter ERA (6.73). Tampa’s elite double-play defense adds another edge.
Odds: Rays -155, Marlins +130 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Rays ML (-155)

Philadelphia Phillies (37-25) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (23-40) – 6:40 PM ET
🔹 Joe Ross (PHI): 2-1, 4.34 ERA — 2.82 ERA in 5 career starts vs PIT
🔹 Bailey Falter (PIT): 4-3, 3.14 ERA — 0 runs allowed in 4 of last 5 starts
🔍 Phillies have dropped 4 of 5; offense has scored just 4 runs in last 3 losses. Pirates slug just .339 vs righties, lowest in NL, but Falter has been sharp at home.
Odds: Phillies -135, Pirates +114 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-108)

Texas Rangers (29-34) @ Washington Nationals (29-33) – 6:45 PM ET
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 3-4, 3.71 ERA — returns to face former team
🔹 Michael Soroka (WSH): 2-3, 5.81 ERA — struggles with command
🔍 Rangers have been swept and are batting just .222 as a team. Marcus Semien’s heating up, but Corbin has the edge in a matchup of uneven lineups and shaky bullpens.
Odds: Rangers -122, Nationals +102 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-108)

Boston Red Sox (30-34) @ New York Yankees (38-23) – 7:05 PM ET
🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 4-3, 4.44 ERA — 3 quality starts, solid stretch
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 3-3, 5.19 ERA — inconsistent, but serviceable
🔍 Yankees are 5-0 vs teams under .500 and own MLB’s best OPS vs both lefties and righties. Devers has a modest 4-game hit streak for Boston.
Odds: Yankees -198, Red Sox +164 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Yankees ML (-198)

Arizona Diamondbacks (31-31) @ Cincinnati Reds (30-33) – 7:10 PM ET
🔹 SP: Arizona likely going bullpen game (Rodriguez IL)
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 4-4, 3.10 ERA, 60 SO — reliable lefty option
🔍 D-Backs hitters strike out just 17% vs lefties, best in MLB. Reds hit just .213 vs LHP with a .332 SLG. Game tilts on Arizona’s ability to patch together innings.
Odds: Diamondbacks -118, Reds -102 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-112)

Chicago Cubs (39-23) @ Detroit Tigers (41-23) – 7:10 PM ET
🔹 Ben Brown (CHC): 3-3, 5.72 ERA — vulnerable to fly balls
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 5-2, 2.26 ERA, 99 SO — 16 scoreless innings streak
🔍 Skubal dominates while Cubs strike out often. Detroit's 21-8 at home and riding their ace in a likely low-scoring affair.
Odds: Tigers -175, Cubs +145 | Total: 7.0
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+115)

Houston Astros (34-28) @ Cleveland Guardians (33-28) – 7:10 PM ET
🔹 Colton Gordon (HOU): 0-1, 5.95 ERA — allowing 1.22 hits per inning
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 3-3, 4.22 ERA — better at home (3.94 ERA)
🔍 Astros mash lefties (.788 OPS), and Peña (.335 BA vs LHP) could do damage. Game trends toward offense with winds blowing out and both starters shaky.
Odds: Astros -130, Guardians +110 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)

Kansas City Royals (33-30) @ Chicago White Sox (20-43) – 7:40 PM ET
🔹 Seth Lugo (KC): 3-5, 3.45 ERA — steady, low-walks righty
🔹 Davis Martin (CWS): 2-6, 3.67 ERA — capable, but low run support
🔍 Royals have won 4 of 7 and strike out the least vs RHP (18%). White Sox own worst AL slugging vs righties (.332). KC is set up to exploit the matchup.
Odds: Royals -155, White Sox +130 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Royals -1.5 (+130)

Toronto Blue Jays (33-29) @ Minnesota Twins (34-28) – 8:10 PM ET
🔹 Paxton Schultz (TOR): 0-0, 1.84 ERA — bullpen role likely
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 4-1, 3.48 ERA — 2.70 ERA in 4 career starts vs TOR
🔍 Blue Jays are hot—winners of 7 of 8 and lead MLB with 53 runs in last 7 games. Twins pitching has been stout at home, but Toronto’s bats may overpower.
Odds: Twins -155, Blue Jays +130 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-108)

San Diego Padres (35-26) @ Milwaukee Brewers (34-29) – 8:10 PM ET
🔹 Randy Vasquez (SD): 3-4, 3.99 ERA — vulnerable to righty power
🔹 Chad Patrick (MIL): 3-4, 2.97 ERA — 9 straight starts allowing ≤3 ER
🔍 Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10 and crush at home. Vasquez’s .487 SLG allowed to righties could be costly vs Chourio & co.
Odds: Brewers -148, Padres +124 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (-148)

Los Angeles Dodgers (38-25) @ St. Louis Cardinals (34-28) – 8:15 PM ET
🔹 Justin Wrobleski (LAD): 1-1, 8.00 ERA — emergency call-up
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 6-1, 3.65 ERA, 76 SO — 7 shutout IP in last start
🔍 Dodgers slug .567 with RISP (MLB-best), but Gray's command vs a young SP gives Cards the edge at home (20-10 record at Busch).
Odds: Cardinals -122, Dodgers +102 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Cardinals ML (-122)

New York Mets (39-24) @ Colorado Rockies (12-50) – 8:40 PM ET
🔹 Kodai Senga (NYM): 6-3, 1.60 ERA — elite form
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 1-10, 7.14 ERA — torched in May (9.10 ERA)
🔍 Mets swept Rockies last week, winning each by multiple runs. Rockies have MLB’s worst OBP (.279) and batting average (.216).
Odds: Mets -305, Rockies +245 | Total: 10.5
✅ Best Bet: Mets -1.5 (-125)

Seattle Mariners (32-29) @ Los Angeles Angels (28-33) – 9:38 PM ET
🔹 Bryce Miller (SEA): 2-4, 5.36 ERA — shaky on the road
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 2-6, 5.34 ERA — 14 HR allowed
🔍 Mariners have dropped 3 straight but face a soft Angels bullpen (4.98 ERA). Cal Raleigh is red-hot with 7 HR in last 10 and could feast on Hendricks’ flyball tendencies.
Odds: Mariners -135, Angels +114 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-102)

Baltimore Orioles (25-36) @ Oakland Athletics (24-40) – 10:05 PM ET
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 5-5, 4.70 ERA — solid during 6-game win streak
🔹 SP TBD (OAK): Likely JP Sears
🔍 Orioles have won 9 of 11, holding opponents to 11 runs during their streak. A’s have MLB’s worst ERA (5.79) and allow most runs.
Odds: Orioles -130, Athletics +110 | Total: 10.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.5 (-120)

Atlanta Braves (27-34) @ San Francisco Giants (35-28) – 10:15 PM ET
🔹 Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 4-4, 3.13 ERA — excellent control (1.03 WHIP)
🔹 Hayden Birdsong (SF): 3-1, 2.37 ERA — Giants have 2.22 ERA last 5 games
🔍 Braves have lost 4 straight and hit .220 during that span. Pitcher-friendly Oracle Park and two sharp young arms suggest a tight, low-scoring finish.
Odds: Braves -135, Giants +114 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-108)

🎯 Boost Your Betting Research with Jaxon 2.0

Looking to make smarter picks faster? Meet Jaxon 2.0 — Pine Sports’ AI-powered research assistant.

🧠 With Jaxon, you can:

  • Ask game-specific questions and get instant insights

  • Explore player matchups, trends, and prop recommendations

  • Access real data from the last 10 years — no spreadsheets needed

💡 Trusted by bettors, creators, and live broadcasters alike.

💸 Use code MONTE for 25% off your first subscription
 Subscribe now →

👀 New to Monte Carmelo?

Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:

🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…

Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info

Any Feedback?

Does our content and format appeal to you and make you want to read again tomorrow?

We want to hear from you!

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Interested in making your own newsletter? Use the link below to receive a 30-day trial + 20% OFF for 3 months on Beehiiv! Reply to this email, and we’ll even help you get started with AI tips and tricks to jumpstart your journey