Monday's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

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Red Sox/Reds Under 7.5 (-106) – 7:10 PM ET
Garrett Crochet has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 14 of 16 starts, and rookie Chase Burns flashed legit stuff in his MLB debut. With Boston's offense averaging just 2.7 runs in their last 8 games, this profiles as a low-scoring grind.

Yankees ML (-148) @ Blue Jays – 7:07 PM ET
Carlos Rodón has allowed 0 ER in back-to-back starts, while Max Scherzer is still shaking off rust with a 5.63 ERA in limited action. The Yankees hold edges on the mound, in the pen, and in plate discipline, making this a clear value spot.

Giants/Diamondbacks Under 8.0 (-108) – 9:40 PM ET
Logan Webb’s 2.52 ERA pairs with Ryne Nelson’s recent hot streak (2 ER over last 15.2 IP), and Chase Field’s homer-suppressing environment boosts the under. Both bullpens could also keep things tight late.

All times EDT

San Diego Padres (45-38) @ Philadelphia Phillies (49-35) – 6:35 PM
🔹 Matt Waldron (SD): Season debut – 4.91 ERA in 2024
🔹 Zack Wheeler (PHI): 7-3, 2.45 ERA, 126 SO — 1 ER or fewer in four straight starts
🔍 Wheeler is in Cy Young form, and faces a Padres team that strikes out a lot vs RHP. Waldron’s season debut adds volatility, but Philly’s bats haven’t been clicking lately.
💰 Odds: Phillies -227, Padres +183 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-119)

St. Louis Cardinals (47-38) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (35-50) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Erick Fedde (STL): 3-7, 4.11 ERA — rocked for 7 ER in last start
🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 3-7, 4.48 ERA — 14 ER in last 2 starts
🔍 Both offenses are hot off weekend sweeps, and neither starter is missing bats. Add in shaky command and this has fireworks potential.
💰 Odds: Pirates -115, Cardinals -106 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-122)

New York Yankees (48-35) @ Toronto Blue Jays (45-38) – 7:07 PM
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 9-5, 2.92 ERA, 119 SO — 6 shutout innings in last start
🔹 Max Scherzer (TOR): 0-0, 5.63 ERA — still ramping up after IL stint
🔍 Yankees have the better arm, the better bullpen, and their bats just erupted for 12 runs on Sunday. Scherzer remains a question mark, and Toronto’s lineup has cooled.
💰 Odds: Yankees -148, Blue Jays +124 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Yankees ML (-148)

Cincinnati Reds (44-40) @ Boston Red Sox (41-44) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Chase Burns (CIN): 0-0, 5.40 ERA — 8 Ks in 5 IP debut
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 7-4, 2.06 ERA, 135 SO — .211 BAA, dominant in 2025
🔍 Boston’s offense is cold, averaging just 2.7 runs in recent losses, and Crochet has been lights out. Burns showed big-league stuff in his debut and could keep it tight.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -178, Reds +145 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-106)

Sacramento Athletics (34-52) @ Tampa Bay Rays (47-37) – 7:35 PM
🔹 Jacob Lopez (OAK): 2-4, 3.56 ERA — rotation ERA still worst in MLB
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 7-5, 2.45 ERA — leads one of MLB’s best staffs
🔍 Tampa Bay’s pitching advantage is massive, and Oakland’s bullpen (5.86 ERA) continues to sink them. DPs and limited walks should help keep this one under.
💰 Odds: Rays -184, Athletics +150 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-102)

Baltimore Orioles (36-47) @ Texas Rangers (41-43) – 8:05 PM
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 1-0, 1.62 ERA — excellent in limited innings
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 4-7, 4.24 ERA — inconsistent but improving
🔍 Both teams are .500 in their last 10, and Rogers has been sharp. But Globe Life Field boosts offense, and Corbin has been more hittable than his ERA suggests.
💰 Odds: Orioles -111, Rangers -109 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-111)

Kansas City Royals (39-45) @ Seattle Mariners (43-40) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 4-7, 3.33 ERA — KC 6-4 as underdog in his starts
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 1-4, 5.40 ERA — Mariners 1-6 ATS in his outings
🔍 Seattle owns this matchup historically, winning 9 of 10 at home vs KC. But both pitchers are inconsistent and the under looks sharp given the Mariners’ bullpen dominance.
💰 Odds: Mariners -164, Royals +134 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-120)

San Francisco Giants (45-39) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (41-42) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 7-5, 2.52 ERA — 1.85 ERA in June, dominates Arizona
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 4-2, 3.71 ERA — just 2 ER over last 15.2 IP
🔍 Two starters in great form face off in a park that suppresses power. San Francisco’s bullpen edge could prove decisive late.
💰 Odds: Giants -157, D-backs +128 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-108)

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