Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

We deliver concise daily MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re always informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

Follow us on Twitter for more. Reply to this email with your thoughts, bets, or anything else — we read every response.

🔥 Top Picks

Brewers ML (+110) @ Reds – 7:10 PM ET
Freddy Peralta (2.77 ERA) faces Hunter Greene (2.63 ERA) in a marquee NL Central duel. Milwaukee’s won 8 straight and owns 4 of 5 in this season series, riding the hot bat of Christian Yelich.

Twins -1.5 (-115) @ Athletics – 10:05 PM ET
Minnesota torched Oakland 10-4 on Monday and gets Pablo López (2.75 ERA) against a mystery starter and an A’s bullpen with a 6.16 ERA. Oakland’s dropped 17 of 18 and is 9-20 at home.

Tigers -1.5 (-105) @ White Sox – 7:40 PM ET
Detroit blasted 5 HRs in last night’s 13-1 win and has won 7 of 8. Rookie Sawyer Gipson-Long debuts vs Shane Smith, who's solid (2.68 ERA), but Chicago’s lost 7 of 8 and looks lifeless.

Sponsored

Hire an AI BDR & Get Qualified Meetings On Autopilot

Outbound requires hours of manual work.

Hire Ava who automates your entire outbound demand generation process, including:

• Intent-Driven Lead Discovery Across Dozens of Sources

• High Quality Emails with Human-Level Personalization

• Follow-Up Management

• Email Deliverability Management

Hire Ava to slash costs & boost productivity.

⚾ Game Previews

All times EST

Houston Astros (32-27) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (22-38) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU): 0-1, 5.89 ERA, 26 SO — inconsistent but flashed 12-K upside
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 4-5, 2.15 ERA, 77 SO — carrying the Pirates' rotation
🔍 Skenes gets the ball in a tight matchup vs a league-average Astros offense. Pittsburgh's improved under Don Kelly, but McCullers’ volatility keeps this close.
Odds: Astros -134, Pirates +114 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-115)

Colorado Rockies (10-50) @ Miami Marlins (23-35) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Rockies SP: TBD
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 2-7, 8.47 ERA, 40 SO — allowed 2+ ER in every start
🔍 The Rockies snapped a 10-game skid behind 2 HRs from Hunter Goodman, but Alcantara hasn’t looked right all year. Both lineups have struggled, so this could stay low scoring.
Odds: Marlins -175, Rockies +145 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-102)

Chicago Cubs (37-22) @ Washington Nationals (28-31) – 6:45 PM
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 2-0, 3.98 ERA, 16 SO — Cubs 4-0 in his starts
🔹 Trevor Williams (WSH): 3-5, 5.69 ERA, 43 SO — solid vs SEA last outing
🔍 The Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 and averaging over 5 runs on the road. Washington’s 11-5 in their last 16, but Horton has been sharp and supported by a stingy bullpen.
Odds: Cubs -136, Nationals +116 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Cubs ML (-136)

Cleveland Guardians (32-26) @ New York Yankees (36-22) – 7:05 PM
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 4-5, 3.86 ERA, 50 SO — steady but unspectacular
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 7-3, 2.60 ERA, 90 SO — two straight scoreless outings
🔍 Rodón has owned José Ramírez historically (.220 BA), and he’s been dominant lately. Yankees are heavy home favorites with good reason.
Odds: Yankees -174, Guardians +146 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-105)

Philadelphia Phillies (36-23) @ Toronto Blue Jays (31-28) – 7:07 PM
🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 4-1, 3.32 ERA, 70 SO — one of Philly’s most consistent arms
🔹 Bowden Francis (TOR): 2-6, 5.04 ERA, 46 SO — coming off 5 scoreless vs TEX
🔍 Toronto's .266 average vs lefties (3rd in MLB) could test Sánchez. Phillies have struggled in late-game comebacks (33-119 when trailing after 6).
Odds: Blue Jays -120, Phillies +102 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (+100)

Los Angeles Angels (27-32) @ Boston Red Sox (29-33) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 1-5, 3.06 ERA, 58 SO — 2 ER or fewer in 7 of last 9 starts
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 2-1, 3.83 ERA, 29 SO — hasn’t completed 5 innings in last 5 starts
🔍 Both offenses erupted Monday in a 7-6 game. Angels have OBP struggles vs lefties; Red Sox can’t consistently make contact.
Odds: Red Sox -122, Angels +104 | Total: 10.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-105)

🔥 Brewers (33-28) @ Reds (29-32) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 5-3, 2.77 ERA, 66 SO — in peak form
🔹 Hunter Greene (CIN): 4-3, 2.63 ERA, 66 SO — just 4 ER allowed in last 2 starts
🔍 Milwaukee’s won 8 straight and 4 of 5 in this matchup. With Yelich hot and Peralta dialed in, the Brewers look live again.
Odds: Reds -130, Brewers +110 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (+110)

Arizona Diamondbacks (28-31) @ Atlanta Braves (27-31) – 7:15 PM
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 3-7, 5.54 ERA, 66 SO — team is 5-13 in his starts
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 0-3, 4.50 ERA, 15 SO — hasn’t completed 5 IP since return
🔍 Neither ace is in form. Braves are winless in Strider starts and Arizona’s dropped 8 of 10. Could come down to the bullpens.
Odds: Braves -168, Diamondbacks +142 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-115)

Texas Rangers (29-31) @ Tampa Bay Rays (30-29) – 7:35 PM
🔹 Tyler Mahle (TEX): 5-2, 1.64 ERA, 48 SO — elite all season
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 4-4, 2.33 ERA, 48 SO — 18 scoreless IP streak
🔍 Mahle vs Rasmussen is a classic pitchers’ duel. Semien heating up for TEX, but the under looks sharp.
Odds: Rays -126, Rangers +108 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-105)

🔥 Tigers (40-21) @ White Sox (18-42) – 7:40 PM
🔹 Tigers SP: Sawyer Gipson-Long (MLB debut)
🔹 Shane Smith (CHW): 1-3, 2.68 ERA, 54 SO — hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start
🔍 Detroit leads MLB with 40 wins and crushed 5 HRs in a 13-1 rout last night. Chicago’s lost 7 of 8 and is reeling.
Odds: Tigers -180, White Sox +150 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers -1.5 (-105)

Kansas City Royals (31-29) @ St. Louis Cardinals (33-26) – 7:45 PM
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 3-6, 4.33 ERA, 52 SO — career 2.51 ERA vs STL
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 4-3, 4.23 ERA, 42 SO — steady in the middle innings
🔍 Royals debut top prospect Jac Caglianone in a regional rivalry matchup. Cardinals look to clean up fielding issues after rough weekend.
Odds: Cardinals -122, Royals +104 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-122)

Baltimore Orioles (22-36) @ Seattle Mariners (32-26) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 4-3, 3.23 ERA, 35 SO — leading recent rotation surge
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 0-2, 11.42 ERA, 8 SO — roughed up in last 2 starts
🔍 Seattle’s won 3 straight, but Kirby’s struggles are real. Ryan O’Hearn (slashing .329/.416/.535) looms as a trade target and threat.
Odds: Mariners -134, Orioles +116 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Orioles ML (+116)

San Diego Padres (34-24) @ San Francisco Giants (33-27) – 9:45 PM
🔹 Ryan Bergert (SD): 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 SO — bullpen opener
🔹 Landen Roupp (SF): 3-4, 3.54 ERA, 56 SO — effective in middle innings
🔍 Padres are 34-24 ATS and continue to find ways to win despite scoring 1 run or fewer in 8 of last 16. Giants have been shut out twice in 3 games.
Odds: Padres -108, Giants -108 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-124)

🔥 Twins (32-27) @ Athletics (23-38) – 10:05 PM
🔹 Pablo López (MIN): 4-3, 2.75 ERA, 57 SO — ace-level production
🔹 Athletics SP: TBD
🔍 Oakland has lost 17 of 18 and owns the worst bullpen ERA in baseball (6.16). Minnesota crushed them 10-4 Monday and has the pitching edge again.
Odds: Twins -205, Athletics +170 | Total: 10.0
🔥 Top Pick: Twins -1.5 (-115)

New York Mets (38-22) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (36-24) – 10:10 PM
🔹 Tylor Megill (NYM): 4-4, 3.52 ERA, 72 SO — command shaky with 27 BB
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 0-0, 4.91 ERA, 6 SO — still regaining form post-injury
🔍 Mets are 7-1 in last 8 and just beat LA in extras. Kershaw’s not vintage yet, and the Mets hit lefties well.
Odds: Dodgers -138, Mets +118 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (+102)

👀 New to Monte Carmelo?

Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:

🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…

Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info

Any Feedback?

Interested in making your own newsletter? Use the link below to receive a 30-day trial + 20% OFF for 3 months on Beehiiv! Reply to this email, and we’ll even help you get started with AI tips and tricks to jumpstart your journey