Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers -1.5 (+105) vs Twins – 7:10 PM ET
Tarik Skubal is on a Cy Young tear (9-2, 2.29 ERA, 125 Ks), and faces a Twins team that’s 18-26 on the road with a 5.78 bullpen ERA over the last 10 games. Detroit’s 29-14 at home and primed to roll.

Blue Jays Team Total Over 2.5 First 5 Innings (-115) vs Red Sox – 1:35 PM ET
Walker Buehler’s June has been brutal (11.57 ERA, 14 BB in 22 IP), and Toronto ranks top 5 in OPS and wOBA vs righties over the past 30 days. Lauer’s steady form gives Toronto the early edge.

Under 8.5 (-117) in Rockies vs Brewers – 2:10 PM ET
Milwaukee has allowed just 2 runs this series and sends Chad Patrick (2.94 home ERA) against German Marquez (5.79 ERA). Colorado’s league-worst lineup won’t help this total hit the Over.

All times EDT

🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 5-6, 3.96 ERA, 71 SO — 6.35 ERA in 2 starts vs CLE this season
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 5-5, 4.25 ERA, 54 SO — 4.00 BB/9, struggles with control
🔍 Cleveland is hitting .210 in June and has lost four straight home series, while STL’s Alec Burleson is batting .336 on the road. With two shaky starters and slumping offenses, this could be a grind.
💰 Odds: STL -116, CLE -105 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)

🔹 Frankie Montas (NYM): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 SO — 5 shutout IP in season debut
🔹 Mike Burrows (PIT): 1-2, 4.45 ERA, 30 SO — allowed 3+ ER in 4 of 6 starts
🔍 The Mets are reeling, dropping 12 of 15, but Montas looked sharp in his debut. Pittsburgh’s offense has done damage early but struggles late (.222 vs relievers).
💰 Odds: NYM -144, PIT +118 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-102)

🔹 Taj Bradley (TB): 5-5, 4.57 ERA, 77 SO — 3.89 ERA in June, 35 BB in 86.2 IP
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 6-7, 4.60 ERA, 72 SO — 2.90 home ERA, held TB to 1 run in June 17 start
🔍 Rays are 11-4 in their last 15, with Aranda on a 13-game hit streak. Despite shaky starters, both teams lean toward the Under in pitcher-friendly Camden Yards.
💰 Odds: TB -110, BAL -110 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-117)

🔹 Eric Lauer (TOR): 4-1, 2.21 ERA, 41 SO — opponents hitting .188
🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 5-5, 6.29 ERA, 56 SO — 11.57 ERA in June
🔍 Buehler’s meltdown continues, and Toronto’s offense ranks top-5 vs righties. Blue Jays strike out the least in MLB and should capitalize early.
💰 Odds: TOR -117, BOS -104 | Total: 9.5
🔥 Top Pick: TOR Over 2.5 Runs First 5 Innings (-115)

🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 6-2, 2.08 ERA, 59 SO — 7+ IP in 4 straight starts
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 3-5, 4.07 ERA, 53 SO — 8-1, 2.05 ERA vs PHI career
🔍 A legit ace duel with playoff intensity. Philly’s been boom-or-bust offensively, while Atlanta’s Matt Olson rides a 29-game OB streak.
💰 Odds: ATL -161, PHI +132 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)

🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 2-8, 4.83 ERA, 68 SO — 7 ER in last start, 6.79 road ERA
🔹 Marcus Stroman (NYY): 0-1, 11.57 ERA — returns from 69-day IL stint
🔍 Stroman and Severino have both been awful, and the total reflects that. Yankees should bounce back after getting shut out, but both bullpens are shaky.
💰 Odds: NYY -225, OAK +181 | Total: 10.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-117)

🔹 Stephen Kolek (SD): 3-3, 3.95 ERA, 42 SO — 3 or fewer ER in 6 straight
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 5-5, 3.63 ERA, 80 SO — 3 straight quality starts
🔍 Great American Ball Park usually plays big, but these two starters limit damage. Padres have won 5 of 7 and often strike first.
💰 Odds: CIN -137, SD +113 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-102)

🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 7-5, 4.47 ERA, 70 SO — struggles on road
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 8-4, 2.88 ERA, 102 SO — 2.33 ERA at home
🔍 Valdez has led Houston to 9 straight wins in his starts, and Cubs have trouble vs lefties. Houston’s bullpen is elite in close games.
💰 Odds: HOU -157, CHC +129 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-115)

🔹 Dodgers SP: TBD
🔹 Kris Bubic (KC): 6-5, 2.18 ERA, 96 SO — coming off QS vs TB
🔍 Dodgers lead MLB in runs scored and OPS with RISP, while KC ranks last in both. If Bubic falters, it could get ugly fast.
💰 Odds: LAD -119, KC -102 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-110)

🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 0-5, 4.52 ERA, 52 SO — looking for first win
🔹 Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 2-7, 4.66 ERA, 51 SO — .628 OPS allowed to righties
🔍 Giants own the 3rd-best team ERA (3.39), while White Sox rank last in batting average and OPS vs RHP. Verlander finally gets a soft landing.
💰 Odds: SF -157, CWS +129 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105)

🔹 Germán Márquez (COL): 3-9, 5.79 ERA — 1.64 WHIP, 5+ ER in 4 of last 7
🔹 Chad Patrick (MIL): 3-7, 3.72 ERA, 85 SO — 3 or fewer ER in 7 straight
🔍 Brewers have outscored COL 13-2 in this series and won 8 of 10. Patrick dominates RHB and Milwaukee’s bullpen is well-rested.
💰 Odds: MIL -272, COL +216 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (-117)

🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 4-5, 3.69 ERA, 75 SO — 3.25 ERA vs TEX in last 5
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 4-5, 4.55 ERA — 6.75 ERA in June, 32 BB in 65.1 IP
🔍 Mariners are 6-2 vs TEX this year and 6-0 after a loss in that span. Castillo’s consistency and Texas’ slump makes this lean low scoring.
💰 Odds: SEA -122, TEX +100 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-112)

🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 5-8, 4.59 ERA — 4+ ER in 3 of last 5
🔹 Jack Kochanowicz (LAA): 3-8, 5.49 ERA — multiple HRs allowed in 5 of 7
🔍 With both starters getting hit hard, expect runs. Angel Stadium’s homer-friendly conditions should help both lineups.
💰 Odds: LAA -137, WSH +113 | Total: 10.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-103)

🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 3-7, 5.56 ERA — 12 HR allowed in 68 IP
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 3-4, 5.40 ERA — opponents batting .297
🔍 Marlins have won 6 straight and are averaging nearly 8 runs/game during the streak. But both starters have struggled all year.
💰 Odds: ARI -200, MIA +162 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-116)

🔹 Chris Paddack (MIN): 3-6, 4.64 ERA — 5.32 road ERA, 14 HR allowed
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 9-2, 2.29 ERA — 125:13 K:BB, 0.87 WHIP
🔍 Skubal is dominating and Detroit thrives at home (29-14). With Minnesota’s bullpen crumbling (5.78 ERA last 10), this could be one-way traffic.
💰 Odds: DET -291, MIN +230 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+105)

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