Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Mets ML (-144) @ Pirates – 6:40 PM ET
David Peterson has kept opponents in check all season with a 2.98 ERA, and now gets a Pirates team that ranks 29th vs lefties (67 wRC+). Mitch Keller is 1–10 and getting zero run support.

Rays ML (-136) @ Orioles – 7:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay’s won six straight on the road, and Ryan Pepiot is locked in, allowing just 7 runs in his last 24.2 IP. Baltimore’s offense is ice cold, and Sugano has been shaky in June.

Under 7.0 (-123) – Mariners @ Rangers – 8:05 PM ET
Two elite arms in Gilbert and Eovaldi clash in a low-total environment. With Globe Life playing pitcher-friendly and both lineups struggling, this shapes up as a tight, low-scoring game.

All times EDT

David Peterson (NYM): 5-3, 2.98 ERA, 78 SO – ranks in the 99th percentile in groundball rate
🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 1-10, 4.02 ERA, 73 SO – MLB-worst 2.14 runs of support per start
🔍 Peterson faces a Pirates team that ranks last in wRC+ this month (73) and struggles against lefties. The Mets lead the league in HRs this June and have crushed RHP.
💰 Odds: Mets -144, Pirates +118 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Mets ML (-144)

Ryan Pepiot (TB): 5-6, 3.04 ERA, 91 SO – 22.2 scoreless innings by Rays starters
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 5-4, 3.55 ERA – 9 ER in last 14.1 IP
🔍 Tampa’s won six straight on the road and leads MLB since May 20 with a 25-9 record. Baltimore’s offense is in the gutter, hitting just .151 with two strikes this season.
💰 Odds: Rays -136, Orioles +112 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Rays ML (-136)

Mitch Spence (OAK): 2-2, 3.84 ERA – 2.75 ERA in four starts
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 4-4, 4.66 ERA – 1 run allowed in 7.1 IP vs OAK in May
🔍 New York is trying to stabilize after going 4–9 in their last 13. Oakland’s bullpen owns the worst ERA in MLB (5.94), while Aaron Judge continues to pace the majors in batting average.
💰 Odds: Yankees -267, Athletics +212 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-102)

Sonny Gray (STL): 7-2, 3.72 ERA, 90 SO – 3 or fewer runs in 11 of 13 starts
🔹 Luis Ortiz (CLE): 4-8, 4.30 ERA – 41 BB in 81.2 IP
🔍 Gray faces a Guardians team that strikes out 31% of the time in righty-righty matchups—the worst mark in MLB. St. Louis has the edge in both offense and starting pitching here.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -131, Guardians +107 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105)

José Berríos (TOR): 3-3, 3.51 ERA – 3 ER in 13.2 IP vs BOS this year
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 3-2, 3.31 ERA – 1 ER in last 13 IP
🔍 Boston’s offense has fallen apart since trading Devers, hitting just .188 over their last nine. Berríos has been sharp lately, while Guerrero (forearm) may return Friday.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -121, Blue Jays -101 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-103)

MIN: Starter TBD (Festa likely – 6.39 ERA, 8 ER in last outing)
🔹 Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET): 0-0, 4.58 ERA – 6.1 IP, 4 ER vs TB in last start
🔍 Detroit boasts the AL’s best record and a .799 OPS vs lefties, while Minnesota’s rotation walks just 7% of batters. Festa's struggles make this a soft spot for the Tigers.
💰 Odds: Tigers -126, Twins +104 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (+100)

Dylan Cease (SD): 3-6, 4.43 ERA, 109 SO – top-20 MLB starter
🔹 Nick Martinez (CIN): 4-8, 4.40 ERA – 3.55 ERA at home
🔍 Cease's swing-and-miss stuff faces a Reds team that thrives at home. Both bullpens are solid, and the total feels inflated by the ballpark.
💰 Odds: Padres -132, Reds +109 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (+101)

Mick Abel (PHI): 2-1, 3.47 ERA – 2 or fewer runs in 3 of 4 MLB starts
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 2-4, 4.77 ERA – 10 HR allowed in 66 IP
🔍 Philly's bats have gone cold, scoring just one run across their last three games. The under has hit in 22 of Atlanta’s last 27 vs NL East foes at home.
💰 Odds: Braves -181, Phillies +148 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-122)

Landen Roupp (SF): 5-5, 3.67 ERA – 70 SO in 76 IP
🔹 Aaron Civale (CWS): 1-4, 5.03 ERA – 7 ER in last 2 starts
🔍 Giants pen leads MLB with a 2.85 ERA and .618 OPS allowed. The White Sox continue to rank last in batting average and show little offensive life.
💰 Odds: Giants -156, White Sox +128 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-108)

Logan Gilbert (SEA): 2-2, 3.12 ERA – 60 SO, 0.89 WHIP
🔹 Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 4-3, 1.56 ERA – returns from IL
🔍 Two top-tier arms face off in a hitter-suppressing park. The Mariners have the AL’s best road OBP (.343) and better away form, but scoring could be scarce either way.
💰 Odds: Mariners -118, Rangers -103 | Total: 7.0
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.0 (-123)

Cade Horton (CHC): 3-1, 3.73 ERA – rough last start (6 ER in 4.2 IP)
🔹 Brandon Walter (HOU): 0-1, 3.80 ERA – 2.53 xFIP
🔍 Both teams sit atop their divisions. The Cubs average 5.76 runs/game on the road but face a Houston pen that leads MLB in RISP defense.
💰 Odds: Astros -115, Cubs -106 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-102)

Dustin May (LAD): 4-5, 4.46 ERA – 5.94 ERA on the road
🔹 Noah Cameron (KC): 2-3, 2.08 ERA – first start vs LAD
🔍 Dodgers are rolling with 8 wins in 10, while KC has lost 10 straight at home and scored just 4 runs in their last five. Ohtani leads LA with 28 homers.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -156, Royals +128 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-116)

Jose Quintana (MIL): 5-2, 2.98 ERA – 6 scoreless innings in last start
🔹 Rockies SP: TBD – staff allows .312 BA, lowest K rate in MLB
🔍 Brewers have won 6 of 7 and now host the worst team in baseball. Yelich is hitting .429 over his last 10, and Turang carries a 10-game hit streak.
💰 Odds: Brewers -226, Rockies +182 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-103)

Jake Irvin (WSH): 6-3, 4.18 ERA – .244 opponent AVG
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 5-5, 3.39 ERA – 10 K in last outing
🔍 LA’s recent pitching has been excellent, posting a 2.32 ERA over their last 10. Washington has allowed the most late-inning runs in MLB.
💰 Odds: Angels -168, Nationals +138 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-123)

Eury Pérez (MIA): 0-2, 6.17 ERA – struggles vs lefties
🔹 Merrill Kelly (ARI): 7-3, 3.39 ERA – 9.0 K/9, .211 BAA
🔍 Arizona mashes righties (.467 SLG vs RHP), and Miami starters have the worst road ERA in baseball (6.20). With Carroll and Moreno out, Marte (.714 SLG last 10) is stepping up.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -188, Marlins +153 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-107)

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