Thursday's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

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Braves ML (-108) @ Mets – 7:10 PM ET
Atlanta’s won 8 of 10 against the Mets and 6 of their last 10 overall, while the bullpen has been untouchable (1.08 ERA over 5 games). Grant Holmes has rebounded, and Canning owns a 6.08 ERA over his last 5.

Rays ML (-132) @ Royals – 2:10 PM ET
Tampa Bay’s won five straight on the road and faces a Royals team averaging an MLB-worst 2.78 runs/game at home. Baz and the bullpen should keep KC’s cold bats quiet.

Under 7.0 (-109) – Phillies @ Astros – 2:10 PM ET
Two of the league’s best arms square off in Sánchez (2.87 ERA) vs. Brown (1.88 ERA, 1.45 at home). Eleven of their last twelve meetings have gone under.

All times EDT

Oakland Athletics (33-49, .402) @ Detroit Tigers (50-31, .617) – 1:10 PM
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 6-5, 4.24 ERA, 72 SO — 18 Ks in 12 scoreless innings vs. DET
🔹 Dietrich Enns (DET): First MLB appearance since 2021, 2.89 ERA in Triple-A
🔍 Springs has owned Detroit, but the A’s bullpen is a liability (MLB-worst 5.85 ERA). Enns returns to the bigs after a solid stint in Toledo, and Detroit’s lineup, led by Greene, thrives at home.
💰 Odds: Tigers -168, Athletics +138 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (+101)

Toronto Blue Jays (42-37, .532) @ Cleveland Guardians (40-38, .513) – 1:10 PM
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 5-6, 4.60 ERA, 84 SO — 2.61 career ERA vs CLE
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 4-7, 3.86 ERA, 75 SO — 2.50 ERA at home
🔍 Bibee's been sharp at home and has dominated Toronto in three career starts. Both teams are playoff contenders with recent inconsistency. The under's hit in 7 of Cleveland’s last 10.
💰 Odds: Guardians -120, Blue Jays -102 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-112)

Seattle Mariners (41-38, .519) @ Minnesota Twins (38-42, .475) – 1:10 PM
🔹 Emerson Hancock (SEA): 3-3, 5.43 ERA, 50 SO — shelled for 9 ER in last start
🔹 Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 2-4, 5.06 ERA, 46 SO — 7 HR allowed in last 31.2 IP
🔍 Seattle’s road bats (.782 OPS) meet a reeling Twins team that's lost 11 of 13. With both starters struggling and Minnesota’s late-inning pitching faltering, this one sets up for a high score.
💰 Odds: Twins -119, Mariners -102 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-121)

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Tampa Bay Rays (45-35, .563) @ Kansas City Royals (38-42, .475) – 2:10 PM
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 7-3, 4.79 ERA, 77 SO — 7 straight 5+ IP starts
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 4-7, 4.81 ERA, 69 SO — 6 quality starts this year
🔍 Tampa's won 5 straight road games, while the Royals have dropped 4 in a row. KC's home offense is the worst in MLB, and Baz gets a great bounce-back spot.
💰 Odds: Rays -132, Royals +108 | Total: 10.0
🔥 Top Pick: Rays ML (-132)

Philadelphia Phillies (47-33, .588) @ Houston Astros (47-33, .588) – 2:10 PM
🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 6-2, 2.87 ERA, 92 SO — 4 straight quality starts
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 8-3, 1.88 ERA, 109 SO — 1.45 ERA at home
🔍 Both teams come in tied and feature ace-level arms. Houston’s won 6 straight at home and 10 straight series, while Philly’s bats have gone quiet.
💰 Odds: Astros -149, Phillies +123 | Total: 7.0
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.0 (-109)

Chicago Cubs (47-33, .588) @ St. Louis Cardinals (44-37, .543) – 2:15 PM
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 3-2, 2.82 ERA, 34 SO — 1.10 WHIP
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 5-3, 4.48 ERA, 58 SO — 6 scoreless innings last outing
🔍 The Cubs snapped a 3-game skid but face a Cards team that's 8-2 in their last 10. Chicago’s bullpen has a 1.27 ERA vs division foes, the best in MLB.
💰 Odds: Cubs -143, Cardinals +118 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-115)

Los Angeles Dodgers (50-31, .617) @ Colorado Rockies (18-62, .225) – 3:10 PM
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 3-0, 3.31 ERA, 24 SO — 3 ER in last 3 starts
🔹 Austin Gomber (COL): 0-1, 8.38 ERA, 4 SO — just 9.2 IP this season
🔍 The Dodgers have won 9 of 10 vs. Colorado and bring a .278 average over their last five games into Coors. Kershaw’s form and Rockies’ poor OBP vs RHP could keep this under the big number.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -305, Rockies +239 | Total: 12.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 12.0 (-115)

Miami Marlins (33-45, .423) @ San Francisco Giants (44-36, .550) – 3:45 PM
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 2-0, 2.60 ERA, 25 SO — Marlins' best road arm
🔹 Hayden Birdsong (SF): 3-1, 3.25 ERA, 55 SO — Giants SPs allow .296 BA w/ RISP
🔍 Miami's won 3 straight behind solid defense and pitching. SF has lost 7 of 10, and this series leans low-scoring.
💰 Odds: Giants -192, Marlins +156 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-105)

Atlanta Braves (37-42, .468) @ New York Mets (47-34, .580) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Grant Holmes (ATL): 4-6, 3.71 ERA, 97 SO — blanked MIA in last start
🔹 Griffin Canning (NYM): 7-3, 3.91 ERA, 67 SO — 6.08 ERA over last 5 starts
🔍 Atlanta owns the season series 5-1 and has won 8 of 10 against NYM overall. With the Mets slumping and their offense struggling at Citi Field, the Braves are in position to steal the finale.
💰 Odds: Braves -108, Mets -112 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Braves ML (-108)

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