Wednesday's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

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Phillies ML (-156) @ Astros – 8:10 PM ET
Zack Wheeler has allowed just 2 ER over his last 17 innings and owns a 2.86 ERA on the road. Houston’s Colton Gordon has a 5.31 ERA at home, and Philly’s won 9 of 12—huge SP edge here.

Braves/Mets Under 9.0 (-102) – 7:10 PM ET
Clay Holmes is holding opponents to a .203 SLG with two strikes, and the Mets have scored just 24 runs over their last 10 games. Atlanta’s dominated the series, but both teams are ice-cold at the plate.

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Rangers -1.5 (+104) @ Orioles – 6:35 PM ET
DeGrom has a 1.31 ERA in his career vs. Baltimore and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since May. Brandon Young has a 6.23 ERA and faces a Texas team that leads MLB in SP OPS allowed.

All times EDT

Arizona Diamondbacks (41-38) @ Chicago White Sox (25-55) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 5-8, 5.60 ERA, 86 SO — 7 ER in last start vs COL
🔹 Sean Burke (CHW): 3-7, 4.50 ERA, 61 SO — 1 ER in last outing
🔍 Arizona’s won 5 of 6 and held the Sox to 1 run this series. Marte is on fire, hitting .577 over his last 6. Chicago ranks bottom 3 in OBP and SLG.
💰 Odds: ARI -157, CHW +129 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-101)

Pittsburgh Pirates (32-49) @ Milwaukee Brewers (44-36) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 4-6, 1.85 ERA, 106 SO — 1.85 ERA despite poor W-L
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 2-0, 1.64 ERA, 11 SO — 1 H allowed over 11 IP
🔍 Brewers are scoring in bunches but allow plenty too. Skenes vs Misiorowski is an elite young arms duel, and books expect a pitcher’s game.
💰 Odds: MIL -110, PIT -111 | Total: 6.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-101)

Boston Red Sox (40-41) @ Los Angeles Angels (39-40) – 4:07 PM ET
🔹 Richard Fitts (BOS): 0-3, 4.71 ERA — 5 ER in 1 IP vs LAA earlier this month
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 2-6, 3.01 ERA — 1.31 ERA at home
🔍 Angels have won 6 of 9 and dominated Fitts in his last start. Boston mashes lefties (.272 AVG, .461 SLG), which could push this total over.
💰 Odds: LAA -132, BOS +108 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-122)

Washington Nationals (33-47) @ San Diego Padres (43-36) – 4:10 PM ET
🔹 MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 3-7, 3.19 ERA, 123 SO — facing former team
🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 7-2, 3.64 ERA — 2.76 ERA at home
🔍 Padres have won 7 of 8 vs WSH, and Pivetta’s been excellent at Petco. Nationals allow 1.99 runs/game in late innings—worst in MLB.
💰 Odds: SD -156, WSH +128 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-113)

Texas Rangers (39-41) @ Baltimore Orioles (34-45) – 6:35 PM ET
🔹 Jacob deGrom (TEX): 7-2, 2.24 ERA — 1.31 ERA vs BAL
🔹 Brandon Young (BAL): 0-1, 6.23 ERA — first start vs TEX
🔍 Baltimore ranks bottom 5 in nearly every offensive metric. DeGrom should cruise against a rookie and weak lineup.
💰 Odds: TEX -156, BAL +128 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Rangers -1.5 (+104)

Oakland Athletics (32-49) @ Detroit Tigers (50-30) – 6:40 PM ET
🔹 Jacob Lopez (OAK): 1-4, 4.25 ERA — 1 ER over last 3 starts
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 5-8, 4.83 ERA — 15 ER in last 2 starts
🔍 Oakland’s bullpen is a disaster (5.89 ERA, worst in MLB). Detroit leads MLB in win % and dropped 11 runs in the opener.
💰 Odds: DET -186, OAK +151 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-116)

Toronto Blue Jays (42-36) @ Cleveland Guardians (39-38) – 6:40 PM ET
🔹 Max Scherzer (TOR): 0-0, 6.00 ERA — limited pitch count in return
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 5-3, 3.58 ERA — 1.99 ERA in June
🔍 Scherzer is limited to ~80 pitches, while Williams has dominated TOR historically. Jays lead MLB in lowest strikeout rate.
💰 Odds: CLE -123, TOR +101 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-106)

Atlanta Braves (37-41) @ New York Mets (46-34) – 7:10 PM ET
🔹 Didier Fuentes (ATL): 0-1, 7.20 ERA — 3 SO in MLB debut
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 7-4, 3.04 ERA — 2.30 ERA vs ATL in career
🔍 Braves are 5-0 vs NYM this year. But Mets' lineup has gone silent and Citi Field suppresses offense.
💰 Odds: NYM -157, ATL +129 | Total: 9.0
🔥 Top Pick: Under 9.0 (-102)

New York Yankees (45-34) @ Cincinnati Reds (42-38) – 7:10 PM ET
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 9-2, 2.05 ERA — 2.26 ERA on the road
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 7-5, 4.13 ERA — 5.23 ERA over last 6
🔍 Reds are hot (12-5 in last 17), but Fried is dealing. Yankees offense has stalled, scoring under 4 runs in 8 of last 12.
💰 Odds: NYY -218, CIN +176 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-102)

Tampa Bay Rays (44-35) @ Kansas City Royals (38-41) – 7:40 PM ET
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 6-5, 2.61 ERA — 4.41 ERA last 3 starts
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 4-6, 3.24 ERA — 1 ER in last start
🔍 KC has lost 8 straight at home, scoring just 2.85 runs/game there. Tampa is 22-8 since May 20 and leads MLB in road ERA.
💰 Odds: TB -132, KC +108 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-119)

Seattle Mariners (41-37) @ Minnesota Twins (37-42) – 7:40 PM ET
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 1-3, 6.16 ERA — allowed runs in all 6 starts
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 7-3, 3.06 ERA — Twins’ most reliable arm
🔍 Twins have lost 11 of 12, allowing 46 runs in last 4. Mariners have MLB’s best road OBP (.349).
💰 Odds: MIN -132, SEA +108 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-112)

Chicago Cubs (46-33) @ St. Louis Cardinals (44-36) – 7:45 PM ET
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 6-3, 2.84 ERA — no road wins yet
🔹 Erick Fedde (STL): 3-6, 3.54 ERA — 3.2 ER avg allowed
🔍 Cubs are sliding (2-8 last 10), while Cards are surging (8-2 last 10). Both lineups have been productive lately.
💰 Odds: CHC -149, STL +122 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-117)

Philadelphia Phillies (47-32) @ Houston Astros (46-33) – 8:10 PM ET
🔹 Zack Wheeler (PHI): 7-2, 2.61 ERA — 2 ER over last 17 IP
🔹 Colton Gordon (HOU): 2-1, 4.54 ERA — 5.31 ERA at home
🔍 Phillies have won 9 of 12 and get their ace vs Gordon’s poor home splits. Astros haven’t lost a series in 9 tries, but this is Philly’s edge.
💰 Odds: PHI -156, HOU +128 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Phillies ML (-156)

Los Angeles Dodgers (49-31) @ Colorado Rockies (18-61) – 8:40 PM ET
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 6-6, 2.76 ERA — 1.76 ERA on road
🔹 Chase Dollander (COL): 2-7, 6.19 ERA — 9.58 ERA at home
🔍 Dodgers should feast on Dollander, who allows over 3 ER/game. Ohtani leads a lineup slugging .627 in altitude.
💰 Odds: LAD -340, COL +264 | Total: 11.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 11.0 (-109)

Miami Marlins (32-45) @ San Francisco Giants (44-35) – 9:45 PM ET
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA): 2-2, 3.81 ERA — 2 ER or less in 8 of last 9
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 7-5, 2.49 ERA — 1.35 ERA at home
🔍 Marlins have the worst road ERA in MLB. Webb’s been nearly untouchable in San Francisco.
💰 Odds: SF -232, MIA +187 | Total: 7.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.0 (-116)

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