Tuesday's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers/Athletics Under 7.5 (-115) – 6:40 PM ET
Tarik Skubal (2.06 ERA) has been dominant at Comerica, while Oakland’s bats have scored 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 10 on the road. This one profiles as a pitcher’s duel.

Braves ML (-149) vs Mets – 7:10 PM ET
Strider’s punched out 21 over his last 12 innings and owns a perfect 4-0 mark vs the Mets. With Montas debuting after a rough rehab stint and New York slumping (1-9 last 10), Atlanta’s the value side.

Diamondbacks ML (-126) @ White Sox – 7:40 PM ET
Ryne Nelson has held hitters to a .204 AVG and .622 OPS, while Chicago trots out an opener with a 1.52 WHIP and just 2 wins in 12 games. Arizona’s .809 OPS vs righties is the clincher.

All times EDT

🔹 Jacob Latz (TEX): 1-0, 3.26 ERA, 30 SO — allowed 1 ER over 5.2 IP in his last start
🔹 Charlie Morton (BAL): 4-7, 5.64 ERA, 74 SO — 2.42 ERA over last 5 starts
🔍 The O's rank dead last in OPS vs lefties, and Latz held KC in check last week. Baltimore's won 18 of 28 but faces a Texas team with a top-5 bullpen. In 100-degree heat, expect runs to come hard.
💰 Odds: Orioles -143, Rangers +118 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-116)

🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 2-7, 4.42 ERA, 66 SO — road ERA of 0.93
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 8-2, 2.06 ERA, 117 SO — 0.85 WHIP, 12 BB in 96 IP
🔍 Detroit's slumping but still 26-12 at home. Skubal’s been lights out and Oakland’s scored 3 or fewer in 7 of 10 away. This one has shutdown written all over it.
💰 Odds: Tigers -330, Athletics +257 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

🔹 Eric Lauer (TOR): 3-1, 2.29 ERA, 36 SO — Under is 3-1 in last 4 starts
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 5-4, 4.21 ERA, 50 SO — .308 AVG vs LHB
🔍 Cleveland’s scored 4 or fewer in 18 of 19, and Toronto mashes lefties (.271 AVG). Lauer keeps games low-scoring, and the Guardians are allergic to runs lately.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -137, Guardians +113 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-101)

🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 2-5, 3.89 ERA, 45 SO — 21 Ks in last 12 IP
🔹 Frankie Montas (NYM): Season debut — 12.05 ERA in 6 rehab outings
🔍 Strider dominates the Mets, while Montas looked lost in the minors. Atlanta’s won 7 of 10 and New York’s dropped 9 of 10. The lean is clear.
💰 Odds: Braves -149, Mets +122 | Total: 9.0
🔥 Top Pick: Braves -149

🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 9-5, 3.10 ERA, 114 SO — .132 BAA with 2 strikes
🔹 Chase Burns (CIN): MLB debut — 1.77 ERA in minors
🔍 Rodón's been sharp, and the Yanks hit righties well (.778 OPS). But New York’s lost 8 of 11 and faces a red-hot Elly De La Cruz.
💰 Odds: Yankees -164, Reds +134 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-112)

🔹 Taj Bradley (TB): 4-5, 4.95 ERA, 73 SO — 5.79 ERA over last 5
🔹 Kris Bubic (KC): 6-4, 2.12 ERA, 88 SO — 8 ER over last 9.2 IP
🔍 Rays are scoring in bunches (6.5 RPG last 15 days), and KC can’t keep up. Tampa also handles righties well, while the Royals struggle at home.
💰 Odds: Royals -137, Rays +113 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-104)

🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 4-5, 3.38 ERA, 72 SO — 4.59 ERA on road
🔹 Chris Paddack (MIN): 3-6, 4.48 ERA, 56 SO — 12 ER over last 2 starts
🔍 Seattle’s offense is red-hot (41 runs last 4) and Paddack’s been lit up lately. The Mariners hit .274 on the road, best in MLB.
💰 Odds: Twins -111, Mariners -110 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-106)

🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 4-2, 3.88 ERA, 45 SO — 1 ER in last start
🔹 Jordan Leasure (CWS): 2-4, 4.23 ERA — 1st career start (32 relief apps)
🔍 Arizona crushes righties (.809 OPS) and Chicago is ice-cold at the plate (.217 AVG in June). Marte’s red-hot and Leasure’s overmatched.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -126, White Sox +104 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-126)

🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 3-6, 3.94 ERA, 61 SO — 7 ER in last outing
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 7-4, 2.76 ERA, 90 SO — 3 ER over last 4 starts
🔍 Pirates are slugging .339 as a team—worst in MLB—and now face Peralta, who's dealing. Milwaukee’s hot bats should seal a bounce-back.
💰 Odds: Brewers -218, Pirates +176 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-111)

🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 7-4, 3.84 ERA, 67 SO — 6-2 career vs STL
🔹 Michael McGreevy (STL): 1-1, 2.70 ERA, 15 SO — 0.84 WHIP in 16.2 IP
🔍 Cubs lead MLB in road OPS (.802), and this one feels like another shootout. The over has cashed in 6 of the last 7 matchups.
💰 Odds: Cubs -112, Cardinals -108 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-119)

🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 6-1, 2.20 ERA, 52 SO — 0.91 ERA over last 6
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 8-4, 3.09 ERA, 99 SO — 1.85 ERA vs PHI career
🔍 Both lefties are locked in and have dominant splits. These are two of MLB’s most efficient pitching staffs—expect a tight one.
💰 Odds: Astros -157, Phillies +129 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-119)

🔹 Dodgers SP: TBD
🔹 Germán Márquez (COL): 3-8, 6.11 ERA, 50 SO — 7.89 ERA at home
🔍 The Rockies allow 7.5 runs/game at Coors and Márquez has been torched all season. LA leads MLB in scoring—this could get ugly fast.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -274, Rockies +217 | Total: 12.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 12.0 (-111)

🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 7-4, 2.20 ERA, 125 SO — Under in 11 of 15 starts
🔹 Tyler Anderson (LAA): 2-5, 4.56 ERA, 65 SO — 18 ER over last 4
🔍 The Sox crush lefties (.274 AVG) and Crochet’s been lights out. LA’s bullpen is gassed and Kenley Jansen is iffy—Boston has the edge.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -169, Angels +138 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-115)

🔹 Trevor Williams (WSH): 3-8, 5.54 ERA, 58 SO — only 1 HR allowed in last 5
🔹 Ryan Bergert (SD): 1-0, 1.88 ERA, 19 SO — 2.25 ERA as starter
🔍 Padres bullpen is elite at home (2.63 ERA), and Washington struggles after wins. This sets up well for San Diego’s arms to control the game.
💰 Odds: Padres -172, Nationals +140 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-106)

🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 3-7, 5.68 ERA, 48 SO — held SF to 2 ER last time out
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 0-4, 4.45 ERA, 47 SO — 2.63 ERA vs MIA career
🔍 SF’s bullpen leads MLB in opponent AVG and Quantrill's Marlins are slugging just .384. Low score and late drama feel likely.
💰 Odds: Giants -181, Marlins +148 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-110)

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