Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Brewers ML (+109) @ Twins – 2:10 PM ET
Quinn Priester (3.46 ERA) is in form, while the Twins have lost 12 of 15. Milwaukee’s outscored them 26-6 in the series and is chasing a fourth straight win.

Tigers ML (-106) @ Rays – 12:10 PM ET
Casey Mize has held opponents to 3 ER or fewer in 9 of 11 starts. Tampa's hot, but Littell’s 2.14 HR/9 makes him vulnerable vs Riley Greene and a Detroit team that's 29-7 when not allowing a homer.

Under 9.5 (-102) – Orioles @ Yankees – 11:35 AM ET
Both offenses are depleted or slumping, and each club has trended under lately. Kremer has owned NYY in three straight starts, and light winds at Yankee Stadium favor pitchers.

All times EDT

🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 6-7, 4.80 ERA, 65 SO — 3-0 in last 3 vs NYY with 5 ER in 16.2 IP
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 4-4, 4.83 ERA, 90 SO — elite 11.7 K/9, strong xERA/xFIP
🔍 Yankees have lost 7 of 9, while Baltimore’s won 6 of 9. Orioles missing key bats (Rutschman, Mountcastle, O’Neill) vs NYY’s MLB-best .450 SLG vs RHP.
Odds: Yankees -206, Orioles +167 | Total: 9.5
🔥 Top Pick: Under 9.5 (-102)

🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 7-2, 2.96 ERA, 59 SO — 8 Ks over 7 IP in last start
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 6-7, 3.88 ERA, 61 SO — leads MLB in HR/9 (2.14)
🔍 Tampa’s 22-8 since May 20, but Littell's longball issues are a red flag vs a Tigers team 29-7 when not allowing HRs. Riley Greene has 17 HR, 59 RBI.
Odds: Rays -114, Tigers -106 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-106)

🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 4-4, 4.40 ERA, 49 SO — 5.10 ERA on road, 30 BB in 61.1 IP
🔹 Bailey Falter (PIT): 5-3, 3.49 ERA, 50 SO — 2 ER or fewer in 6 of last 8 starts
🔍 Rangers have won 6 of 7 vs PIT. Pirates slug just .334 vs RHP.
Odds: Pirates -113, Rangers -108 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-119)

🔹 Adrian Houser (CWS): 2-2, 2.15 ERA, 22 SO — 9.58 ERA vs TOR lifetime
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 7-3, 3.75 ERA, 83 SO — 3-1, 2.84 ERA last 5 vs CWS
🔍 White Sox have lost 9 of 10. Alejandro Kirk is 6-for-6 lifetime vs Houser.
Odds: Blue Jays -218, White Sox +176 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-119)

🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 2-3, 4.45 ERA, 51 SO — owns 2.89 ERA in 8 career games vs MIA
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 3-8, 6.88 ERA, 55 SO — 2.12 ERA in June, improved form
🔍 Braves have won 7 of 9; Marlins' SPs have 6.23 ERA on road.
Odds: Braves -142, Marlins +117 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-113)

🔹 Quinn Priester (MIL): 5-2, 3.46 ERA, 46 SO — 1 ER in last start, 10 QS in 12
🔹 David Festa (MIN): 1-1, 4.78 ERA, 29 SO — short last start (3.2 IP, 2 ER)
🔍 Brewers have dominated series (26-6 run diff); Twins have lost 12 of 15.
Odds: Twins -133, Brewers +109 | Total: 9.5
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (+109)

🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 6-1, 1.84 ERA, 69 SO — 1 ER or less in 9 of 12 starts
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 4-4, 4.35 ERA, 45 SO — 5.1 scoreless vs CIN in April
🔍 Cards have won 5 straight; Abbott’s games trending under (7 of last 9).
Odds: Reds -114, Cardinals -106 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-101)

🔹 Logan Gilbert (SEA): 1-2, 2.55 ERA, 54 SO — 0.79 WHIP, 10 Ks in last start
🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 4-2, 3.84 ERA, 52 SO — allows consistent contact (.267 BAA)
🔍 Cubs and Mariners combined for 17 runs Saturday; Cal Raleigh leads MLB with 30 HR.
Odds: Mariners -121, Cubs -101 | Total: 11.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 11.5 (-105)

🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 8-4, 5.38 ERA, 58 SO — 6.53 ERA in road starts
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 2-10, 6.72 ERA, 35 SO — 7.51 ERA at Coors
🔍 D-backs chasing sweep; Ketel Marte is 11-for-22 vs COL this year.
Odds: Diamondbacks -206, Rockies +167 | Total: 12.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 12.5 (-119)

🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 2-3, 4.15 ERA, 34 SO — 3.43 ERA on road
🔹 JP Sears (OAK): 5-6, 5.45 ERA, 58 SO — 6.91 ERA in home starts
🔍 Guardians' last 6 have gone under; A's bullpen owns MLB-worst 5.93 ERA.
Odds: Guardians -122, Athletics +101 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-114)

🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 3-1, 4.73 ERA, 41 SO — 1 ER last 2 starts
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 8-2, 2.68 ERA, 97 SO — 2.29 ERA in 8 home starts
🔍 Boston averaging 2.6 R/G over last 5 road games. 8 of last 10 Sox games stayed under.
Odds: Giants -164, Red Sox +134 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-116)

🔹 Ryan Gusto (HOU): 4-3, 4.31 ERA, 60 SO — opponents hitting .274
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 5-6, 4.79 ERA, 53 SO — 9 Ks vs NYY last start
🔍 Astros have won 8 of 10; Angels average 4.1 R/G and face MLB’s 5th-best ERA.
Odds: Astros -123, Angels +101 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-105)

🔹 Michael Soroka (WSH): 3-5, 5.06 ERA, 49 SO — 6.12 ERA on road
🔹 Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 0-0, 9.00 ERA — likely 1-2 IP as opener
🔍 Nats have 8 HR this series but are 2-12 last 14. Dodgers slugging .494 at home.
Odds: Dodgers -266, Nationals +212 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-108)

🔹 Seth Lugo (KC): 4-5, 3.05 ERA, 61 SO — 4.66 FIP suggests some regression
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 3-4, 3.70 ERA, 43 SO — high BB%, low K%
🔍 Contact-heavy lineups with both teams bottom-3 in strikeouts.
Odds: Royals -112, Padres -108 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-107)

🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 5-2, 2.60 ERA, 74 SO — 4th-best ERA in NL
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 6-3, 4.41 ERA, 97 SO — 1.47 ERA last 5 vs NYM
🔍 Mets slug .417 on road; Bohm (.708 SLG vs Peterson) anchors PHI lineup.
Odds: Phillies -115, Mets -105 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-105)

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