Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Brewers ML (+111) @ Twins – 2:10 PM
Jose Quintana’s quietly sharp 3.35 ERA meets a Twins team that’s dropped 4 of 5. Milwaukee ranks fourth in the NL in road OPS and hung 17 runs on Minnesota Friday.

Phillies ML (-114) vs Mets – 7:15 PM
Mick Abel (2.21 ERA) has been lights out, and Philly’s won 8 of 9 while New York’s lost 7 straight and scored just 12 total runs during the skid.

Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110) @ Rockies – 9:10 PM
Arizona torched Colorado for 14 runs Friday, and now gets Merrill Kelly (3.41 ERA) vs Carson Palmquist’s 7.76 ERA in Coors. Rockies have dropped 9 of 11.

All times EDT

Detroit Tigers (48-29) @ Tampa Bay Rays (42-34) – 12:10 PM
🔹 Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET): 0-0, 3.97 ERA — returning from elbow/hip surgeries, just 11.1 IP this season
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 4-6, 3.11 ERA — 1.62 ERA over last 5 starts, 11 Ks in last outing
🔍 Tigers have hit the Over in 7 straight, and Friday’s 14-8 slugfest shows both bats are hot. Pepiot’s been nails lately, but Detroit has lost 7 straight Saturdays.
Odds: Tigers +103, Rays -134 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-111)

Baltimore Orioles (33-42) @ New York Yankees (43-32) – 1:05 PM
🔹 Zach Eflin (BAL): 6-3, 4.81 ERA — 5.98 road ERA, but 10 straight 5+ IP starts
🔹 Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 3-3, 3.16 ERA — 2.21 FIP last month, 3 shutout starts in last 4
🔍 Yankees have dropped 7 of 8, while Baltimore's won 7 of 10. But Schmidt’s been their anchor and Judge is hot (8 total bases last 2 games).
Odds: Orioles +147, Yankees -180 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-115)

Milwaukee Brewers (41-35) @ Minnesota Twins (37-38) – 2:10 PM
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 4-2, 3.35 ERA — 7 of 9 starts with ≤2 ER
🔹 Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 2-3, 5.13 ERA — 8 HR in 47.1 IP
🔍 Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 and crushed Minnesota 17-6 Friday. Quintana gets a favorable matchup vs Twins' cold lineup.
Odds: Brewers +111, Twins -136 | Total: 10.0
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (+111)

Cincinnati Reds (39-37) @ St. Louis Cardinals (41-35) – 2:15 PM
🔹 Brent Suter (CIN): 1-0, 2.91 ERA — bullpen arm, just 6 IP in 2 starts
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 7-2, 3.84 ERA — 2.85 ERA at home
🔍 Cards have won 4 straight and are averaging nearly 7 runs per game in that span. Hot bats + summer heat at Busch = scoring environment.
Odds: Reds +162, Cardinals -199 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-108)

Seattle Mariners (38-36) @ Chicago Cubs (45-30) – 2:20 PM
🔹 Emerson Hancock (SEA): 3-2, 4.48 ERA — up-and-down with 2 blowup games
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 3-1, 3.47 ERA — 1.21 WHIP, 5.2 scoreless last outing
🔍 Wind blowing out at Wrigley + Friday’s 13-run game sets up another hitter-friendly day. Cal Raleigh’s on a tear, and both teams crush first pitches.
Odds: Mariners +140, Cubs -172 | Total: 12.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 12.5 (-107)

Chicago White Sox (24-52) @ Toronto Blue Jays (40-35) – 3:07 PM
🔹 Aaron Civale (CWS): 1-3, 4.67 ERA — 1.070 OPS allowed at Rogers Centre
🔹 José Berríos (TOR): 2-3, 3.81 ERA — 14-6 career vs CWS
🔍 Jays have the lowest K-rate in MLB, bad news for Civale’s 19.5% K rate. Toronto’s averaging nearly 6 runs per game this month.
Odds: White Sox +160, Blue Jays -198 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-118)

Boston Red Sox (40-37) @ San Francisco Giants (42-34) – 4:05 PM
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 3-1, 3.49 ERA — 7 straight starts w/ ≤3 ER
🔹 Landen Roupp (SF): 4-5, 3.99 ERA — 2.88 home ERA
🔍 Both bullpens are elite, both lineups are cold. Boston’s hitting .201 over last 10, while SF’s relief staff leads MLB in opponent AVG.
Odds: Red Sox -102, Giants -119 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-110)

Texas Rangers (37-39) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (30-47) – 4:05 PM
🔹 Kumar Rocker (TEX): 2-4, 7.31 ERA — 1.69 WHIP, 4+ ER in 4 of last 6
🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 1-9, 4.08 ERA — 10 quality starts in 14 outings
🔍 Pirates offense is dead last in MLB slugging, and Keller’s been snakebit by run support. Under looks strong here.
Odds: Rangers -110, Pirates -111 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)

Atlanta Braves (34-40) @ Miami Marlins (30-44) – 4:10 PM
🔹 Grant Holmes (ATL): 3-6, 3.97 ERA — 92 Ks, 11 HR allowed
🔹 Eury Pérez (MIA): 0-1, 6.43 ERA — 1.86 WHIP in just 7 IP
🔍 Acuña Jr. is red hot and dominating the Marlins. Still, pitcher-friendly park and shaky lineups keep the total low.
Odds: Braves -158, Marlins +129 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-111)

Kansas City Royals (38-38) @ San Diego Padres (40-35) – 7:15 PM
🔹 Noah Cameron (KC): 2-2, 1.91 ERA — 0.90 WHIP, 0.47 road ERA
🔹 Dylan Cease (SD): 2-6, 4.69 ERA — 6 ER in last start
🔍 Royals are riding a 4-game win streak and Cease is vulnerable right now. Cameron's been dominant, but KC hasn't capitalized on his starts.
Odds: Royals +132, Padres -161 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-122)

New York Mets (45-31) @ Philadelphia Phillies (46-30) – 7:15 PM
🔹 Griffin Canning (NYM): 6-3, 3.80 ERA — 10 ER in last 2
🔹 Mick Abel (PHI): 2-0, 2.21 ERA — .202 BAA in 4 starts
🔍 Phillies are 29-13 at home and have won 8 of 9. Mets have scored 12 total runs in 7 straight losses.
Odds: Mets -106, Phillies -114 | Total: 10.0
🔥 Top Pick: Phillies ML (-114)

Arizona Diamondbacks (38-37) @ Colorado Rockies (17-59) – 9:10 PM
🔹 Merrill Kelly (ARI): 6-3, 3.41 ERA — 8-3 career vs Rockies
🔹 Carson Palmquist (COL): 0-4, 7.76 ERA — 1.76 WHIP
🔍 D-backs crushed 21 hits in Friday’s 14-8 win. Coors + 90° temps + Palmquist = fireworks.
Odds: Diamondbacks -220, Rockies +178 | Total: 12.0
🔥 Top Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110)

Houston Astros (44-32) @ Los Angeles Angels (36-39) – 9:38 PM
🔹 Brandon Walter (HOU): 0-0, 1.53 ERA — 0.91 WHIP
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 4-5, 3.54 ERA — 1 ER last 2 starts
🔍 Astros have won 18 of 25 and own MLB's top bullpen with 0.120 AVG allowed w/ 2 strikes. Tight matchup leans low scoring.
Odds: Astros +104, Angels -126 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-119)

Cleveland Guardians (37-37) @ Oakland Athletics (32-46) – 10:05 PM
🔹 Luis L. Ortiz (CLE): 3-8, 4.64 ERA — 6 Ls in last 7 decisions
🔹 Mitch Spence (OAK): 2-1, 3.50 ERA — 1.06 ERA in June
🔍 Guardians have scored just 14 runs over their 7-game road trip and struggle vs RHP. A’s have won 6 of 8 and Spence is locked in.
Odds: Guardians -136, Athletics +112 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-115)

Washington Nationals (31-45) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (47-30) – 10:10 PM
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 5-3, 4.23 ERA — 4.88 ERA vs LAD
🔹 Dustin May (LAD): 4-4, 4.46 ERA — 3.68 home ERA
🔍 Dodgers have won 4 straight vs WSH and Nationals are on a 5-game road skid. Expect fireworks late—LAD is batting .299 w/ RISP.
Odds: Nationals +216, Dodgers -272 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-110)

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