Friday's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

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Rangers -1.5 (-105) @ Pirates – 6:40 PM ET
deGrom has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 11 straight starts, and the Pirates rank last in MLB in runs and home runs. Texas is 6-2 in deGrom’s last 8 outings and should roll against Burrows’ limited pitch count.

Phillies -1.5 (+100) vs Mets – 7:15 PM ET
Wheeler owns a 1.95 ERA at home and faces rookie Blade Tidwell (14.73 ERA) and a Mets lineup that’s lost six straight, scoring 1 run or fewer in three of the last four.

Twins ML (-163) vs Brewers – 8:10 PM ET
Joe Ryan is 4-1 in his last five home starts, and Milwaukee’s road struggles (17-20) plus Misiorowski’s inexperience point to value on Minnesota behind Buxton’s hot bat and a 12-run outburst Thursday.

All times EDT

Seattle Mariners (37-36) @ Chicago Cubs (45-29) – 2:20 PM
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 1-3, 5.96 ERA, 30 SO — 1.36 WHIP and inconsistent command
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 6-3, 2.79 ERA, 73 SO — just 1 ER over last 12 IP at home
🔍 Kirby’s struggles meet Boyd’s bounce-back season. With 75° temps and wind out at Wrigley, expect offense. Cubs are 24-13 at home and have won 4 of 6.
Odds: Cubs -149, Mariners +123 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-117)

Texas Rangers (36-39) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (30-46) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Jacob deGrom (TEX): 6-2, 2.19 ERA, 80 SO — 11 straight starts with 2 ER or less
🔹 Mike Burrows (PIT): 1-1, 4.24 ERA, 25 SO — averages under 5 IP per start
🔍 Rangers face the league's worst offense; Pirates have 3 or fewer runs in 6 of 8. deGrom should dominate.
Odds: Rangers -186, Pirates +151 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Rangers -1.5 (-105)

Detroit Tigers (48-28) @ Tampa Bay Rays (41-34) – 7:05 PM
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 5-7, 4.03 ERA, 90 SO — 7 ER in last outing, 7.00 career ERA vs TB
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 6-3, 4.54 ERA, 71 SO — 5.36 ERA at home despite last strong start
🔍 Two of the hottest June offenses collide (DET 118 wRC+, TB 123). Flaherty’s command vs a patient lineup tips it toward runs.
Odds: Rays -115, Tigers -105 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-102)

Baltimore Orioles (32-42) @ New York Yankees (43-31) – 7:05 PM
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 5-4, 3.38 ERA, 46 SO — strong control, low K rate
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 9-2, 1.89 ERA, 90 SO — 2 ER or fewer in 9 of 11 starts
🔍 Fried leads the AL’s best two-strike staff against a Baltimore team slugging just .224 in those counts. Judge is hitting .366 with 26 HRs.
Odds: Yankees -289, Orioles +228 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-105)

Chicago White Sox (23-52) @ Toronto Blue Jays (40-34) – 7:07 PM
🔹 Davis Martin (CWS): 2-7, 3.79 ERA, 53 SO — 46.1% hard-hit rate
🔹 Spencer Turnbull (TOR): 1-0, 2.08 ERA, 2 SO — first start for Toronto
🔍 White Sox are 7-31 on the road and 1-11 vs Toronto since 2023.
Odds: Blue Jays -194, White Sox +157 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-119)

Atlanta Braves (34-39) @ Miami Marlins (29-44) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Didier Fuentes (ATL): MLB debut
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 1-0, 2.78 ERA, 20 SO — possible regression ahead
🔍 Braves are 7-3 with a 2.83 team ERA over their last 10. Their 2.81 ERA in NL East games supports the Under.
Odds: Braves -144, Marlins +119 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-115)

Cincinnati Reds (39-36) @ St. Louis Cardinals (40-35) – 7:15 PM
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 7-4, 4.34 ERA, 60 SO — 5.10 ERA on the road
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 4-3, 4.83 ERA, 54 SO — 3+ ER in 4 of last 5
🔍 Reds have won 9 of 12. Both starters carry 4.00+ ERAs with shaky control.
Odds: Cardinals -149, Reds +122 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-103)

New York Mets (45-30) @ Philadelphia Phillies (45-30) – 7:15 PM
🔹 Blade Tidwell (NYM): 0-1, 14.73 ERA — 6 ER in MLB debut
🔹 Zack Wheeler (PHI): 7-2, 2.76 ERA, 110 SO — 1.95 ERA at home
🔍 Phillies have won 7 of 8 and face a rookie in freefall. Mets on a six-game skid.
Odds: Phillies -203, Mets +164 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+100)

Milwaukee Brewers (40-35) @ Minnesota Twins (37-37) – 8:10 PM
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 1-0, 0.00 ERA — 5 scoreless IP in MLB debut
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 7-2, 2.93 ERA, 89 SO — 4-1 in last 5 home starts
🔍 Twins smashed 12 runs Thursday. Ryan’s been dominant at home and Milwaukee’s weak road offense (.641 OPS).
Odds: Twins -163, Brewers +133 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Twins ML (-163)

Arizona Diamondbacks (37-37) @ Colorado Rockies (17-58) – 8:40 PM
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 4-8, 5.19 ERA, 81 SO — 4.31 xFIP suggests some bad luck
🔹 Austin Gomber (COL): 0-0, 0.00 ERA — only one start; 4.39 xFIP, 54% fly ball rate
🔍 Coors Field + two exploitable arms = fireworks. Total is a hefty 12.0 for a reason.
Odds: D-backs -187, Rockies +152 | Total: 12.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 12.0 (-109)

Houston Astros (43-32) @ Los Angeles Angels (36-38) – 9:38 PM
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 8-3, 1.88 ERA, 105 SO — 12 K in last start
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 2-6, 3.05 ERA — 4.46 xFIP suggests regression
🔍 Astros lead MLB in miss rate; Angels strike out more than anyone and hit just .141 with 2 strikes.
Odds: Astros -164, Angels +134 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-109)

Kansas City Royals (37-38) @ San Diego Padres (40-34) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 4-7, 4.91 ERA — allowed 3+ ER in 6 straight
🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 7-2, 3.40 ERA — 11 ER allowed in last 3 starts
🔍 Padres relievers are elite; Royals have MLB’s lowest HR/flyball rate (7%).
Odds: Padres -158, Royals +129 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-109)

Cleveland Guardians (37-36) @ Oakland Athletics (31-46) – 10:05 PM
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 4-6, 3.79 ERA — 7 quality starts in last 9
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 5-5, 4.52 ERA — multiple runs allowed in 5 straight
🔍 Guardians pull 50% of batted balls; A’s starters have MLB’s lowest ground ball rate.
Odds: Guardians -122, A’s +100 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-114)

Washington Nationals (31-44) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (46-30) – 10:10 PM
🔹 MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 3-6, 2.89 ERA, 119 SO — elite stuff, but poor run support
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 2-0, 3.25 ERA — 20 SO in 6 starts
🔍 12 of the Nats’ last 15 after a day game have gone under. LA’s 4 of 5 night games vs NL East: under.
Odds: Dodgers -205, Nationals +167 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-104)

Boston Red Sox (39-37) @ San Francisco Giants (42-33) – 10:15 PM
🔹 Hunter Dobbins (BOS): 4-1, 3.74 ERA — 6 scoreless IP vs NYY in last start
🔹 Hayden Birdsong (SF): 3-1, 2.79 ERA — 1.93 ERA at home
🔍 Boston’s hitting just .205 over last 10 but has won 8 of those. Low-scoring game expected with Devers facing his old club.
Odds: Giants -131, Red Sox +108 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-111)

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