Thursday's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers ML (+115) vs Pirates – 5:40 PM ET
Paul Skenes has been lights out, but Detroit is 25-11 at Comerica and mashes lefties (.797 OPS). Pittsburgh is just 5-15 in its last 20 road games and owns the lowest road slugging (.309) in MLB.

Cardinals -1.5 (+120) vs White Sox – 2:10 PM ET
St. Louis has scored 5+ runs in 5 of its last 8 games and faces Sean Burke (4.71 ERA), who just got shelled for 7 ER. The Cards are red hot and White Sox have allowed 4+ runs in 8 of 10.

Under 9.5 (-110) Twins @ Reds – 12:40 PM ET
Minnesota’s offense is ice cold, slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone. Nick Martinez (3.92 ERA) matches up well, and both teams have fresh bullpens after Wednesday's shortened game.

All times EDT

Doubleheader Notes:

🔹 Chris Paddack (MIN): 2-6, 4.30 ERA, 53 SO — gave up 8 ER in last start
🔹 Nick Martinez (CIN): 4-7, 3.92 ERA, 58 SO — consistent command, limits hits
🔍 Cincinnati’s won 9 of 11 and gets a favorable matchup vs a skidding Twins team that’s dropped 6 straight. Reds are .332 OBP vs righties (4th in NL), while the Twins chase out of the zone at one of the AL’s worst rates.
Odds: Reds -115, Twins -105 | Total: 9.5
🔥 Top Pick: Under 9.5 (-110)

🔹 Chase Dollander (COL): 2-7, 6.57 ERA, 46 SO — gave up 9 runs last time vs WAS
🔹 Trevor Williams (WAS): 3-8, 5.71 ERA, 52 SO — allowed 2+ ER in 8 of last 9
🔍 Colorado’s won 4 straight and seeks a rare sweep vs a Nats team that's lost 11 straight. Underdogs have covered in last 6 meetings.
Odds: Nationals -175, Rockies +143 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-110)

🔹 Tyler Anderson (LAA): 2-4, 4.44 ERA, 61 SO
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 8-5, 3.01 ERA, 107 SO — consistent ace-level stuff
🔍 Yankees are big home favorites behind Rodón, while Angels try to avoid falling under .500. Anderson’s vulnerable to righties and NYY lineup could pounce.
Odds: Yankees -285, Angels +225 | Total: 10.0
✅ Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (-134)

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🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 3-5, 3.33 ERA, 59 SO
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 7-2, 1.99 ERA, 111 SO — dominant and consistent
🔍 Detroit is 25-11 at home and hits lefties well (.797 OPS). Pirates rank last in road OPS (.590). Skubal owns a 0.99 WHIP and could cruise.
Odds: Pirates -140, Tigers +115 | Total: 7.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.0 (-105)

🔹 Erick Fedde (STL): 3-6, 3.65 ERA, 51 SO — 3 ER or fewer in 9 of last 10 starts
🔹 Sean Burke (CHW): 3-7, 4.71 ERA, 54 SO — allowed 7 ER in last outing
🔍 Cardinals’ lineup is heating up and White Sox struggle badly vs RHP (.630 OPS). Cardinals starters walk just 6% of batters—best in MLB.
Odds: Cardinals -172, White Sox +140 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (+120)

🔹 Michael McGreevy (STL): 1-1, 3.09 ERA, 10 SO
🔹 Mike Vasil (CHW): 3-2, 1.99 ERA, 32 SO — quietly effective
🔍 Cardinals crushed the Sox 12-2 on Tuesday and look to sweep the twin bill. Vasil has impressed, but the Cards are in control offensively.
Odds: Cardinals -172, White Sox +140 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Cardinals ML (-172)

🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 6-4, 2.60 ERA, 84 SO
🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 7-3, 3.48 ERA, 65 SO — 8 quality starts in last 9
🔍 Both teams struggle offensively of late, setting up a pitchers' duel. Cubs’ home edge and Taillon’s consistency give them the slight edge.
Odds: Cubs -131, Brewers +108 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-111)

🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 3-6, 3.38 ERA, 60 SO
🔹 Shawn Armstrong (TEX): 2-1, 2.90 ERA, 35 SO — 2nd start of season
🔍 Royals are tough to strike out and lead MLB in batting with two strikes. Texas needs this to avoid the sweep but Armstrong is untested in a starting role.
Odds: Rangers -126, Royals +104 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Royals ML (+104)

🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 3-2, 4.14 ERA, 41 SO — just 19.8% K rate
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 5-5, 4.08 ERA, 80 SO — strong xFIP (3.55)
🔍 Jays have the lowest K rate in MLB and a hot lineup. Arizona’s top-tier slugging vs RHP keeps them in it, but bullpen edge favors Toronto.
Odds: Blue Jays -143, Diamondbacks +117 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-115)

🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 5-3, 3.89 ERA, 72 SO — 4.40 ERA on the road
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 6-5, 2.58 ERA, 105 SO — 1.36 ERA at home
🔍 Giants need Webb to stop a slide after dropping 5 of 6. Guardians chase a sweep but have struggled offensively in this park.
Odds: Giants -181, Guardians +148 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-120)

🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 4-6, 1.78 ERA, 97 SO — NL-best 0.85 WHIP
🔹 TBD (DET)
🔍 Skenes is elite, but Detroit is 25-11 at home and crushes lefties. Pirates rank dead last in road OPS and slugging.
Odds: Pirates -140, Tigers +115 | Total: 7.0
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (+115)

🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 5-2, 3.05 ERA, 88 SO
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA): 2-2, 4.10 ERA, 58 SO — 2.38 ERA over last 7 starts
🔍 Philly has won 2 of 3 in the series and faces a Marlins staff allowing a .384 OBP with RISP (worst in MLB).
Odds: Phillies -145, Marlins +119 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-102)

🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 7-3, 2.87 ERA, 68 SO
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 1-5, 4.35 ERA, 37 SO — coming off 13-K gem
🔍 Mets are reeling with 5 straight losses, while Strider looks to build on dominant form. Under has hit in 5 of his 6 starts.
Odds: Braves -136, Mets +112 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-123)

🔹 Charlie Morton (BAL): 3-7, 6.05 ERA, 67 SO — 2.45 ERA last 29⅓ IP
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 6-4, 2.55 ERA, 62 SO — won 5 straight decisions
🔍 Rays are 20-7 in their last 27 and have hit .285 with RISP. Morton has rebounded but Rays’ staff leads MLB in double-play rate, key vs Baltimore’s two-strike struggles.
Odds: Rays -137, Orioles +113 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Rays ML (-137)

🔹 Colton Gordon (HOU): 2-1, 4.70 ERA, 30 SO — just 4 BB in 30⅔ IP
🔹 Jacob Lopez (OAK): 1-4, 4.80 ERA, 40 SO
🔍 Astros have outscored the A’s 24-8 over the last two games and get a plus matchup vs MLB’s worst bullpen (6.04 ERA).
Odds: Astros -137, Athletics +113 | Total: 10.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-117)

🔹 Ryan Bergert (SD): 1-0, 2.33 ERA, 16 SO — first start vs LAD
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 6-5, 2.64 ERA, 90 SO — 12.00 ERA vs SD
🔍 Dodgers are 5-1 vs Padres this year and lead MLB in RISP OPS (.923). Yamamoto has struggled vs SD, but L.A. has won 8 of 10 overall.
Odds: Dodgers -267, Padres +213 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-101)

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