Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers -1.5 (-135) vs Pirates – 6:40 PM
Skubal faces the worst road OPS in baseball (.590). Detroit crushes lefties (.797 OPS), and Heaney’s been shaky away from home (4.55 ERA).

Cardinals -1.5 (+100) vs White Sox – 7:40 PM
St. Louis has won 7 of 10 and leads MLB in fewest walks allowed, while Chicago has dropped six straight and ranks dead last in OPS vs righties (.630).

Phillies -1.5 (-105) at Marlins – 6:40 PM
Suárez has tossed 7 quality starts in 8 outings, while Mazur debuts after a brutal 7.49 ERA in 2024. Big mismatch here, and the Phils have won 6 of 8.

All times EDT

Boston Red Sox (38-37) @ Seattle Mariners (37-35) – 4:10 PM
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 6-4, 2.24 ERA, 117 SO — second-most strikeouts in MLB
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 4-4, 3.29 ERA, 67 SO — struggles with hard contact (.465 xSLG)
🔍 Boston’s offense has cooled (≤2 runs in 4 of last 5), while Seattle’s lineup continues to underwhelm at home (.222 AVG). Tight matchup favors pitching.
Odds: Red Sox -113, Mariners -107 | Total: 6.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-102)

Pittsburgh Pirates (29-45) @ Detroit Tigers (47-27) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 3-5, 3.33 ERA — 4.55 ERA on the road
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 7-2, 1.99 ERA, 111 SO — MLB’s most dominant lefty at home
🔍 Detroit is 15-5 vs lefties and has the best home record in MLB (25-11). The Pirates rank last in road OPS and win % on the road.
Odds: Tigers -328, Pirates +255 | Total: 7.0
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers -1.5 (-135)

Philadelphia Phillies (43-30) @ Miami Marlins (29-42) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 5-1, 2.32 ERA — 7 of 8 quality starts
🔹 Adam Mazur (MIA): MLB debut — struggled with control (7.49 ERA in 2024)
🔍 Philly’s won 6 of 8 and leads MLB in K% vs lefties (29%). Miami’s offense woke up Tuesday but Mazur is a clear weak link.
Odds: Phillies -176, Marlins +144 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-105)

Colorado Rockies (16-57) @ Washington Nationals (30-43) – 6:45 PM
🔹 Germán Márquez (COL): 2-8, 6.62 ERA — .302 AVG allowed to LHB
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 4-7, 4.84 ERA — better at home (3.97 ERA)
🔍 Rockies have MLB’s worst road record (9-30) and rotation ERA (6.39). Both bullpens are awful, but Washington ends their 10-game skid here.
Odds: Nationals -158, Rockies +129 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (+101)

Los Angeles Angels (35-37) @ New York Yankees (42-30) – 7:05 PM
🔹 Jack Kochanowicz (LAA): 3-8, 5.53 ERA — allowed runs in every 2025 start
🔹 Ryan Yarbrough (NYY): 3-1, 3.96 ERA — used sparingly (3.3 IP per outing)
🔍 Yankees haven’t scored in 29 innings (3 straight shutouts). Stanton's return is promising, but L.A.'s pitching continues to surprise.
Odds: Yankees -231, Angels +186 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-111)

Arizona Diamondbacks (36-36) @ Toronto Blue Jays (39-33) – 7:07 PM
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 2-3, 6.27 ERA — 2 ER in each of last 2 starts
🔹 Eric Lauer (TOR): 2-1, 2.37 ERA — not gone past 5 IP yet
🔍 D-backs slug .470 vs righties (MLB-best), while Jays’ bullpen (2nd in K%, 3rd in opp. AVG) could be the difference.
Odds: Blue Jays -112, Diamondbacks -108 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (+101)

Minnesota Twins (36-36) @ Cincinnati Reds (38-35) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 4-3, 4.40 ERA — 9.26 ERA in June
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 4-5, 3.76 ERA — 1.13 WHIP, consistent Ks
🔍 Twins are slumping (lost 5 straight), and strike out 26% vs LHP. Reds have won 8 of 10.
Odds: Reds -137, Twins +113 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Reds ML (-137)

New York Mets (45-28) @ Atlanta Braves (32-39) – 7:15 PM
🔹 Paul Blackburn (NYM): 0-0, 6.75 ERA — 7 ER in last 4.1 IP
🔹 Chris Sale (ATL): 4-4, 2.79 ERA, 107 SO — 1.19 ERA in last 7 starts
🔍 Sale is locked in, but the Mets lead MLB in OPS from innings 7-9 and wRC+ last 30 days. Could be closer than the line suggests.
Odds: Braves -188, Mets +153 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-108)

Baltimore Orioles (31-41) @ Tampa Bay Rays (40-33) – 7:35 PM
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 0-0, 0.00 ERA — dominated Boston in lone MLB start
🔹 Taj Bradley (TB): 4-5, 4.35 ERA — 6.52 ERA vs BAL in 4 starts
🔍 O’s bullpen leads MLB with 0.75 ERA in June. Both teams inconsistent, but pitching edge leans Baltimore despite being slight dogs.
Odds: Rays -115, Orioles -105 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-124)

St. Louis Cardinals (38-35) @ Chicago White Sox (23-50) – 7:40 PM
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 7-2, 3.84 ERA — perfect bounce-back record (3-0, 0.50 ERA after rough starts)
🔹 Sean Burke (CHW): 3-7, 4.71 ERA — shelled for 7 ER in last start
🔍 White Sox have lost 6 straight and can’t hit righties (.630 OPS). Gray dominates poor lineups.
Odds: Cardinals -175, White Sox +143 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (+100)

Kansas City Royals (35-38) @ Texas Rangers (36-37) – 8:05 PM
🔹 Kris Bubic (KC): 5-4, 1.92 ERA — 1.48 ERA in 7 road starts
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 4-5, 3.66 ERA — has allowed runs in 8 straight starts
🔍 KC strikes out the second least in MLB but struggles with RISP (.599 OPS). Bubic has edge, but Royals don’t walk much and fail to convert.
Odds: Royals -136, Rangers +112 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-106)

Milwaukee Brewers (39-35) @ Chicago Cubs (45-28) – 8:05 PM
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 1-0, 0.00 ERA — 4 BB in debut, erratic
🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 7-3, 3.48 ERA — 6 straight quality starts
🔍 Cubs lead MLB in road slugging (.480) and are red-hot at Wrigley. Brewers offense continues to slump.
Odds: Cubs -159, Brewers +130 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Cubs -1.5 (+132)

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Cleveland Guardians (36-35) @ San Francisco Giants (41-32) – 9:45 PM
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 4-4, 4.28 ERA — 1.51 WHIP, vulnerable
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 0-3, 4.33 ERA — returns from IL
🔍 Giants bullpen leads MLB in ERA (2.63). Cleveland has MLB’s highest chase rate with 2 strikes (42%).
Odds: Giants -137, Guardians +113 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-118)

Houston Astros (42-31) @ Oakland Athletics (30-45) – 10:05 PM
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 7-4, 3.10 ERA — 2.36 ERA in May, owns A’s
🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 2-6, 4.47 ERA — 14 ER in last 3 starts
🔍 Astros lead MLB in miss rate (29%) and are 7-1 in last 8. A’s have MLB’s 2nd-worst home ERA (5.83).
Odds: Astros -167, A’s +137 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Astros -1.5 (-102)

San Diego Padres (39-33) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (45-29) – 10:10 PM
🔹 Stephen Kolek (SD): 3-2, 3.50 ERA — 6.46 FIP vs LHB
🔹 Emmet Sheehan (LAD): Season debut — missed 2024
🔍 Dodgers have MLB’s best home OPS (.859) and are 7-2 in their last 9. Padres are 1-5 in last six and shaky vs lefty-heavy lineups.
Odds: Dodgers -206, Padres +167 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-108)

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