Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers ML (-193) vs Pirates – 6:40 PM ET
Detroit is 24-11 at home and crushes left-handed pitching (.272 AVG, .793 OPS). Mize (2.95 ERA) faces a Pirates team batting .209 on the road and just dropped 3 of 4 to the Cubs.

Blue Jays ML (-120) vs Diamondbacks – 7:07 PM ET
Chris Bassitt (3.70 ERA) is 4-0 with a 3.07 ERA in his career vs Arizona. Toronto is 9-1 in its last 10 home games, while Pfaadt enters with a rough 5.50 ERA and 5.12 FIP.

Reds ML (-120) vs Twins – 7:10 PM ET
Andrew Abbott (6-1, 1.87 ERA) leads a Cincinnati team that's won 2 of 3 vs DET. The Twins have lost 4 straight and struggled to score, with just 1 run in Sunday’s finale.

All times EDT

Philadelphia Phillies (43-29, .597) @ Miami Marlins (28-42, .400) – 6:10 PM
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 6-2, 4.23 ERA, 93 SO — 8 quality starts, strong vs MIA earlier this year
🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 3-7, 5.61 ERA, 46 SO — .304 opponent AVG at home
🔍 Phillies have scored 34 runs in their 5-game win streak. Luzardo faces his old team again after a 7 IP, 1 ER start in April.
Odds: Phillies -188, Marlins +153 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-112)

Pittsburgh Pirates (29-44, .397) @ Detroit Tigers (46-27, .630) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Bailey Falter (PIT): 5-3, 3.36 ERA, 46 SO — strong HR suppression, just 7 in 75 IP
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 6-2, 2.95 ERA, 55 SO — elite control (18 BB in 61 IP)
🔍 Tigers mash lefties and are 24-11 at home. Pirates are hitting .209 on the road and just 10-25 away.
Odds: Tigers -193, Pirates +157 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-193)

Colorado Rockies (15-57, .208) @ Washington Nationals (30-42, .417) – 6:45 PM
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 1-10, 7.23 ERA, 35 SO — worst ERA among qualified starters
🔹 Michael Soroka (WSH): 3-4, 5.14 ERA, 40 SO — 3.75 xFIP suggests some bad luck
🔍 Nationals on a 9-game losing streak; Rockies won Game 1 and chase rare 3-game streak.
Odds: Nationals -205, Rockies +167 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-117)

Los Angeles Angels (34-37, .479) @ New York Yankees (42-29, .592) – 7:05 PM
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 4-6, 5.20 ERA, 44 SO — average 5 IP per start
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 4-3, 4.86 ERA, 79 SO — better at home (3.42 ERA)
🔍 Yankees have lost 4 straight, scoring <1 run per game. Stanton returns to support red-hot Judge (100 hits).
Odds: Yankees -248, Angels +199 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-103)

Arizona Diamondbacks (36-35, .507) @ Toronto Blue Jays (38-33, .535) – 7:07 PM
🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 8-4, 5.50 ERA, 55 SO — high xERA, inconsistent
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 7-3, 3.70 ERA, 78 SO — 4-0, 3.07 ERA lifetime vs ARI
🔍 Toronto’s 9-1 in last 10 at home, Bassitt has owned the D-backs.
Odds: Blue Jays -120, Diamondbacks -101 | Total: 9.0
🔥 Top Pick: Blue Jays ML (-120)

Minnesota Twins (36-35, .507) @ Cincinnati Reds (37-35, .514) – 7:10 PM
🔹 David Festa (MIN): 1-1, 4.76 ERA, 25 SO — one quality start in five outings
🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 6-1, 1.87 ERA, 64 SO — 5 scoreless starts
🔍 Twins have lost 4 straight. Reds beat DET twice and have hit righties well (.758 OPS).
Odds: Reds -120, Twins -102 | Total: 9.0
🔥 Top Pick: Reds ML (-120)

New York Mets (45-27, .625) @ Atlanta Braves (31-39, .443) – 7:15 PM
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 5-2, 2.49 ERA, 71 SO — but 1-3 with 4.97 ERA vs ATL
🔹 Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 5-4, 3.11 ERA, 84 SO — 0.86 ERA vs NYM
🔍 Mets lead NL East, but Braves are 12-4 vs NYM in last 16 at home.
Odds: Braves -137, Mets +113 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-114)

Baltimore Orioles (30-41, .423) @ Tampa Bay Rays (40-32, .556) – 7:35 PM
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 5-7, 4.99 ERA, 61 SO — 4.30 xFIP hints at slight bounce
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 6-6, 3.84 ERA, 58 SO — 6 wins in last 8 starts
🔍 Rays have scored 7+ runs in 4 straight wins. Jake Mangum hitting .304 last 15 games.
Odds: Rays -123, Orioles +101 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Rays ML (-123)

St. Louis Cardinals (37-35, .514) @ Chicago White Sox (23-49, .319) – 7:40 PM
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 3-6, 4.17 ERA, 62 SO — 7 quality starts
🔹 Shane Smith (CWS): 3-3, 2.37 ERA, 64 SO — 4 scoreless starts
🔍 Cards are 3-7 in last 10; Sox on 5-game skid. STL walks just 7% of batters.
Odds: Cardinals -149, White Sox +122 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-103)

Kansas City Royals (34-38, .472) @ Texas Rangers (36-36, .500) – 8:05 PM
🔹 Seth Lugo (KC): 3-5, 3.18 ERA, 52 SO — steady in 12 starts
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 4-3, 3.88 ERA, 45 SO — first-ever start vs KC
🔍 Rangers have won 7 of 8; Royals have lost 6 straight, slugging just .314 with RISP.
Odds: Rangers -137, Royals +113 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-116)

Milwaukee Brewers (39-34, .534) @ Chicago Cubs (44-28, .611) – 8:05 PM
🔹 Chad Patrick (MIL): 3-6, 3.25 ERA, 71 SO — solid rookie, 1.26 WHIP
🔹 Ben Brown (CHC): 3-5, 5.71 ERA, 83 SO — 1.47 WHIP
🔍 Cubs have best road OPS (.808); Brewers 4-1 in last 5 division games.
Odds: Cubs -156, Brewers +128 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-105)

Boston Red Sox (38-36, .514) @ Seattle Mariners (36-35, .507) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 5-4, 5.01 ERA, 51 SO — 3 ER over 7 IP in last start
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 5-4, 3.39 ERA, 72 SO — 7.9 K/9
🔍 Sox have won 6 straight; Mariners bat just .220 at home.
Odds: Mariners -182, Red Sox +149 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-117)

Cleveland Guardians (35-35, .500) @ San Francisco Giants (41-31, .569) – 9:45 PM
🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 1-3, 4.26 ERA, 28 SO — tries to steady Cleveland
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 8-1, 2.55 ERA, 92 SO — 2-1, 1.93 ERA vs CLE
🔍 Guardians lost 8 of 10; Devers debuts for SF. Giants bullpen best in late innings.
Odds: Giants -158, Guardians +129 | Total: 7.0
✅ Best Bet: Giants ML (-158)

Houston Astros (41-31, .569) @ Oakland Athletics (30-44, .405) – 10:05 PM
🔹 Jason Alexander (HOU): 0-0, 18.00 ERA, 5 SO — 13 ER in 6 IP
🔹 JP Sears (OAK): 5-5, 5.08 ERA, 58 SO — gave up 9 ER to HOU last time
🔍 A’s on 4-game win streak; Kurtz hit walk-off HR Monday. Astros lead season series 2-1.
Odds: Astros -121, Athletics -101 | Total: 11.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 11.0 (-103)

San Diego Padres (39-32, .549) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (44-29, .603) – 10:10 PM
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 3-4, 3.57 ERA, 41 SO — held LAD to 1 ER in last start
🔹 Dodgers SP: TBD
🔍 Dodgers lead MLB in runs/game (5.55), AVG (.264), and are 12-6 as -215+ favorites.
Odds: Dodgers -226, Padres +182 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

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