Today's MLB Preview + Best Bets

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Phillies ML (-113) @ Marlins – 6:40 PM ET
Mick Abel's poise (2.35 ERA) meets Sandy Alcantara’s 7.14 ERA and a Philly team that's won 5 of 6. The Phillies already tagged Alcantara for 6 runs in 2 innings back in April.

Nationals -1.5 (+120) vs Rockies – 6:45 PM ET
Jake Irvin has been solid at home, while the Rockies are a disaster on the road (.200 AVG, .261 OBP). Palmquist (0-4, 7.77 ERA) has allowed 3+ ER in 5 straight starts

Mariners ML (-176) vs Red Sox – 9:40 PM ET
Logan Gilbert (2.37 ERA) returns to T-Mobile, where he’s posted a 2.10 ERA. Boston's on a heater, but losing Devers and facing Seattle’s dominant home splits makes this a sharp spot to back Gilbert.

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Philadelphia Phillies (42-29, .592) @ Miami Marlins (28-41, .406) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Mick Abel (PHI): 1-0, 2.35 ERA, 14 SO — rookie showing poise in early MLB starts
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 3-7, 7.14 ERA, 50 SO — torched by Phillies in April (6 ER in 2 IP)
🔍 Philly is 5-1 in June homestand and just swept Toronto. Alcantara’s recent “improvement” came vs PIT and COL, and Miami’s staff owns MLB’s 2nd-worst ERA.
Odds: Phillies -113, Marlins -108 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Phillies ML (-113)

Colorado Rockies (14-57, .197) @ Washington Nationals (30-41, .423) – 6:45 PM
🔹 Carson Palmquist (COL): 0-4, 7.77 ERA, 16 SO — 3+ ER in 5 straight starts
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 5-3, 4.21 ERA, 54 SO — 3-1 in last 4 home outings
🔍 Washington’s won 8 of their last 9 night games vs COL after a loss. Rockies rank last in OBP on the road (.261) and have a .200 AVG away from Coors.
Odds: Nationals -173, Rockies +141 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Nationals -1.5 (+120)

Los Angeles Angels (33-37, .471) @ New York Yankees (42-28, .600) – 7:05 PM
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 4-5, 3.86 ERA, 64 SO — 12 K in last outing
🔹 Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 3-3, 3.60 ERA, 57 SO — 6 shutout IP in last start
🔍 Yankees are 21-12 at home and mash righties (AL-best OPS). Angels' road trip (0-3) has been rough, and their lineup ranks dead last in OBP vs righties.
Odds: Yankees -194, Angels +157 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+105)

Baltimore Orioles (30-40, .429) @ Tampa Bay Rays (39-32, .549) – 7:35 PM
🔹 Zach Eflin (BAL): 6-2, 4.08 ERA, 36 SO — 6.2 IP, 1 ER in last start
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 3-6, 3.31 ERA, 73 SO — 3 HR allowed over last 2 starts
🔍 Both clubs come off sweeps, but Rays have bullpen edge (2nd in ERA) and a better road/home split. Offenses red-hot — both scored 30+ runs in last 6 games.
Odds: Rays -111, Orioles -110 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Rays ML (-111)

Boston Red Sox (37-36, .507) @ Seattle Mariners (36-34, .514) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 2-1, 5.45 ERA, 31 SO — trending up (3 of last 4 starts 1 ER or less)
🔹 Logan Gilbert (SEA): 1-1, 2.37 ERA, 44 SO — 2.10 ERA at home
🔍 Mariners swept CLE and have best AL OBP on the road, but Gilbert dominates at T-Mobile. Red Sox are 5-0 in last 5 but debut without Devers after trade shock.
Odds: Mariners -176, Red Sox +144 | Total: 7.0
🔥 Top Pick: Mariners ML (-176)

Houston Astros (41-30, .577) @ Oakland Athletics (29-44, .397) – 10:05 PM
🔹 Ryan Gusto (HOU): 4-3, 4.56 ERA, 52 SO
🔹 Athletics SP: TBD (bullpen day likely)
🔍 Astros have won 5 straight, while Oakland’s bullpen ranks last in ERA. Jeremy Pena (.402, 1.028 OPS last 20 games) continues to rake.
Odds: Astros -132, Athletics +109 | Total: 10.5
✅ Best Bet: Astros ML (-132)

San Diego Padres (39-31, .557) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (43-29, .597) – 10:10 PM
🔹 Dylan Cease (SD): 2-5, 4.28 ERA, 96 SO — 0-3 on road (5.65 ERA), but 1.95 career ERA vs LAD
🔹 Shohei Ohtani (LAD): First pitching appearance since 2023 — expected 1-2 IP
🔍 Ohtani returns to the mound, but it’s Cease who’s dominated LAD (7 scoreless IP last week). Still, Dodgers slug .927 OPS w/RISP and lead MLB in home scoring.
Odds: Dodgers -158, Padres +128 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-102)

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