Friday's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers ML (-132) vs Reds – 7:10 PM ET
Keider Montero has allowed just 4 runs in his last 15.1 IP and gets a Cincinnati lineup with a 4.76 road ERA from Nick Martinez. Detroit’s 23-9 at home and drawing sharp money.

Blue Jays ML (-101) vs Phillies – 6:45 PM ET
Toronto’s won 12 of 14 and leads MLB with a .273 AVG vs LHP. Ranger Suárez is sharp, but Gausman is steady and the Jays are undervalued here by the market.

Over 8.0 (-111) Twins @ Astros – 8:10 PM ET
Chris Paddack’s been solid, but Colton Gordon’s allowed 3+ runs in 4 of 5 starts. With Byron Buxton heating up and Bregman’s injury uncertainty, both teams have offensive upside.

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🔥 Top Pick
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 4-6, 1.88 ERA, 92 SO — 7.2 dominant IP in last outing
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 3-1, 4.11 ERA, 25 SO — 3 ER or fewer in 5 of 6 starts
🔍 Skenes faces a Cubs team with a .776 OPS vs RHP and strong late-game scoring. Pirates have won 5 of 7 but are just 9-23 on the road.
Odds: Cubs -121, Pirates +100 | Total: 6.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-126)

🔥 Top Pick
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 5-4, 3.87 ERA, 73 SO — 3.50 career ERA with Toronto
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 4-1, 2.70 ERA, 38 SO — 1.36 ERA in last 6 starts
🔍 Toronto hits .273 vs LHP (best in MLB) and has won 12 of 14. Suárez is hot, but Gausman gives the Jays an edge in what looks like a tight matchup.
Odds: Phillies -120, Blue Jays -101 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Blue Jays ML (-101)

✅ Best Bet
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA): 2-2, 3.99 ERA, 53 SO — high-stress recent outing
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 4-6, 4.44 ERA, 47 SO — 2.01 ERA vs MIA
🔍 Washington has lost 5 straight and bats .196 over that stretch. Miami’s staff struggles vs righties (.820 OPS allowed), but Edward Cabrera may keep this one low-scoring.
Odds: Nationals -119, Marlins -102 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (+101)

✅ Best Bet
🔹 Jack Kochanowicz (LAA): 3-7, 5.61 ERA, 48 SO — up-and-down season
🔹 Charlie Morton (BAL): 2-7, 6.59 ERA, 57 SO — 2 ER or fewer in 5 of last 6
🔍 Orioles have won 8 of 12 but Morton’s volatility and a 10.5 total suggest fireworks. Angels have won 3 straight and added top prospect Christian Moore.
Odds: Orioles -192, Angels +156 | Total: 10.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.5 (-107)

🔥 Top Pick
🔹 Nick Martinez (CIN): 4-6, 3.70 ERA, 53 SO — 4.76 ERA on the road
🔹 Keider Montero (DET): Improving — 13 H, 4 R in last 15.1 IP
🔍 Detroit is 23-9 at home and drawing sharp money. Martinez’s road struggles vs Montero’s recent form tips this one to the Tigers.
Odds: Tigers -132, Reds +108 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-132)

✅ Best Bet
🔹 Taj Bradley (TB): 4-5, 4.58 ERA, 66 SO — elite soft contact metrics
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 7-3, 2.95 ERA, 65 SO — 4 ER in June, thriving as a starter
🔍 Mets have won 6 straight and are 27-7 at home. Holmes is settling in and the bullpen backs him up with a league-best 2.77 SP ERA.
Odds: Mets -186, Rays +151 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Mets -1.5 (+120)

✅ Best Bet
🔹 Ryan Yarbrough (NYY): 3-1, 4.17 ERA, 43 SO — roughed up in last BOS outing
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 6-4, 2.35 ERA, 110 SO — 5 ER last time vs NYY
🔍 Yankees lead MLB in HR (108) and slugging (.464). Crochet must navigate a tough lineup, but the Sox have won 4 of 5.
Odds: Red Sox -149, Yankees +123 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-109)

✅ Best Bet
🔹 Germán Márquez (COL): 2-8, 7.00 ERA, 41 SO — 8.12 road ERA
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 2-3, 4.08 ERA, 49 SO — stable, but not dominant
🔍 Rockies are 3-45 when opponents score first and opponents hit .321 vs COL starters. Braves are -337 favorites and likely to tee off early.
Odds: Braves -337, Rockies +262 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Braves -1.5 (-160)

✅ Best Bet
🔹 Adrian Houser (CWS): 2-1, 1.48 ERA, 20 SO — 3 ER or fewer in 4 straight
🔹 Rangers: Bullpen game
🔍 Rangers have scored 34 runs in their last 3 and just swept the Twins. Houser gets a revenge shot against his former club.
Odds: Rangers -187, White Sox +152 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-113)

✅ Best Bet
🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 1-6, 4.77 ERA, 60 SO — 0.87 road ERA in 5 starts
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 3-5, 3.01 ERA, 55 SO — reliable at home
🔍 A's have lost 14 straight on the road and their bullpen has a 6.14 ERA away from home. Royals’ recent slump offsets that edge, though.
Odds: Royals -161, Athletics +132 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Royals ML (-161)

🔥 Top Pick
🔹 Chris Paddack (MIN): 2-5, 3.53 ERA, 52 SO — 2.40 ERA in May
🔹 Colton Gordon (HOU): 1-1, 5.11 ERA, 25 SO — 3+ ER in 4 of 5 starts
🔍 Twins’ bats have cooled, but Buxton is surging (.333, 14 RBI since return). Astros’ staff leads MLB in K rate, but Gordon is vulnerable.
Odds: Astros -115, Twins -106 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.0 (-111)

✅ Best Bet
🔹 Erick Fedde (STL): 3-5, 3.54 ERA, 46 SO — solid command, needs run support
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 5-4, 2.69 ERA, 78 SO — elite form, poor offensive support
🔍 Cardinals are batting .256 (4th in MLB) but are on a 5-game skid. Brewers lead MLB in stolen bases and drew sharp action overnight.
Odds: Brewers -156, Cardinals +128 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-115)

✅ Best Bet
🔹 Stephen Kolek (SD): 3-1, 3.00 ERA, 29 SO — 0.85 ERA in 5 road starts
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 2-2, 4.60 ERA, 38 SO — 2.67 ERA at home
🔍 D-backs have slugged .476 vs RHP (best in NL), but Kolek’s been dominant on the road. Arizona's won 4 straight at Chase Field.
Odds: Diamondbacks -137, Padres +113 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-116)

✅ Best Bet
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 5-3, 3.86 ERA, 71 SO — 2.89 ERA in last 7
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 4-4, 3.31 ERA — winless since May 10
🔍 Guardians hit just .203 in righty-righty matchups. Seattle’s offense is cold, but Williams has been sharp.
Odds: Mariners -115, Guardians -106 | Total: 7.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.0 (-101)

✅ Best Bet
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 5-5, 2.58 ERA, 101 SO — 8 of last 10 starts over 5.5 Ks
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 6-4, 2.20 ERA, 86 SO — elite form
🔍 Dodgers lead the NL West by 1 game. Giants’ bullpen is shaky without Chapman, while Yamamoto continues to dominate.
Odds: Dodgers -192, Giants +156 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-123)

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