Thursday's MLB Preview + Best Bets

We deliver concise daily MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re always informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

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Tigers -1.5 (+104) @ Orioles – 6:35 PM ET
Tarik Skubal has a 2.16 ERA and 105 Ks, while Baltimore is hitting just .205 against lefties this year with a .282 SLG—the worst in MLB. Tigers’ bats rank 4th in MLB vs LHP (.269 AVG) and should support their ace.

Astros -1.5 (-106) vs White Sox – 8:10 PM ET
Framber Valdez has gone unbeaten in his last 6 starts (1.84 ERA), while the White Sox offense ranks last in the AL in SLG vs RHP. Houston’s elite rotation (MLB-best ERA) faces Davis Martin, who's winless in his last 4.

Giants -1.5 (-110) @ Rockies – 3:10 PM ET
Hayden Birdsong (2.55 ERA) anchors a San Francisco team on a 7-game win streak, while Antonio Senzatela (6.68 ERA) has allowed 11 HR in 62 IP. Rockies have MLB’s worst record (.179) and lowest team AVG (.220).

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All times EDT

Washington Nationals (30-37, .448) @ New York Mets (44-24, .647) – 1:10 PM
🔹 Michael Soroka (WSH): 3-3, 4.86 ERA, 35 SO — coming off 6 scoreless vs TEX
🔹 Kodai Senga (NYM): 6-3, 1.59 ERA, 65 SO — NL ERA leader, dominating at Citi Field
🔍 Mets are 26-7 at home and boast MLB’s best team ERA (2.85). Nationals bullpen ranks near-worst in ERA (5.64) and OBP allowed.
Odds: Mets -224, Nationals +181 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-102)

Texas Rangers (32-36, .471) @ Minnesota Twins (36-31, .537) – 1:10 PM
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 3-5, 3.52 ERA, 43 SO — 7.00 ERA lifetime vs MIN
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 4-2, 3.78 ERA, 54 SO — 1-0 vs TEX, 5.40 ERA
🔍 Rangers rank bottom-tier in AVG (.224) and OBP vs RHP. Twins own 4th-best OBP vs RHP and strike out just 20% of the time.
Odds: Twins -168, Rangers +138 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Twins ML (-168)

San Francisco Giants (40-28, .588) @ Colorado Rockies (12-55, .179) – 3:10 PM
🔹 Hayden Birdsong (SF): 3-1, 2.55 ERA, 45 SO — 4 HR allowed in 42.1 IP
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 1-10, 6.68 ERA, 33 SO — 1.93 WHIP, 11 HR allowed
🔍 Giants are riding a 7-game win streak and lead MLB in bullpen ERA (2.43). Rockies have worst win pct and lowest team AVG (.220) in the league.
Odds: Giants -217, Rockies +175 | Total: 11.5
🔥 Top Pick: Giants -1.5 (-110)

Detroit Tigers (44-25, .638) @ Baltimore Orioles (27-39, .409) – 6:35 PM
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 6-2, 2.16 ERA, 105 SO — 0.82 WHIP, dominant vs CHC last start
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 5-6, 4.98 ERA, 53 SO — 5 ER allowed vs OAK in last outing
🔍 Orioles are hitting .205 with a .282 SLG vs LHP, both worst in MLB. Tigers slug .778 OPS vs lefties and are surging behind Skubal.
Odds: Tigers -194, Orioles +157 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+104)

New York Yankees (41-25, .621) @ Kansas City Royals (34-34, .500) – 7:40 PM
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 4-3, 5.34 ERA, 75 SO — inconsistent across 13 starts
🔹 Seth Lugo (KC): 3-5, 3.46 ERA, 50 SO — solid despite record
🔍 Yankees’ .813 OPS leads AL, while Royals have lost 9 of last 10 vs NYY. Judge has homered in both games of the series.
Odds: Yankees -156, Royals +128 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Yankees ML (-156)

St. Louis Cardinals (36-32, .529) @ Milwaukee Brewers (36-33, .522) – 7:40 PM
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 7-1, 3.35 ERA, 81 SO — projected 6.2 Ks, 2.1 ER
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): MLB debut — Top-100 prospect, elite velocity
🔍 Cardinals own NL's best batting avg on pitches out of zone (.168). Brewers are hitting just .213 at home—the worst in MLB. Yelich (13 HR, 41 RBI) is out.
Odds: Cardinals -138, Brewers +114 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Cardinals ML (-138)

Pittsburgh Pirates (28-41, .406) @ Chicago Cubs (41-27, .603) – 8:05 PM
🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 3-4, 3.24 ERA, 52 SO — allowed 4 ER vs CHC earlier this year
🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 6-3, 3.54 ERA, 58 SO — steady across 13 starts
🔍 Cubs have won 8 straight vs PIT following a road loss. Pirates are hitting .216 on the road and have a .617 OPS away from home.
Odds: Cubs -207, Pirates +168 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Cubs -1.5 (-110)

Chicago White Sox (23-45, .338) @ Houston Astros (37-30, .552) – 8:10 PM
🔹 Davis Martin (CHW): 2-6, 3.62 ERA, 48 SO — winless in last 4
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 6-4, 3.07 ERA, 84 SO — 1.84 ERA over last 6 starts
🔍 Astros lead MLB in starting pitcher strikeout rate and team ERA. White Sox are last in AL in SLG vs RHP and were blown out 10-2 on Wednesday.
Odds: Astros -245, White Sox +196 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Astros -1.5 (-106)

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