Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers ML (-101) @ Orioles – 6:35 PM ET
Casey Mize (2.91 ERA) anchors a Detroit squad that's 44-24 and 4th best in MLB in slugging vs LHP (.445). They face a struggling Baltimore team that ranks 20th offensively and just dropped the opener.

Brewers ML (+118) vs Braves – 2:10 PM ET
Atlanta’s lost 15 of 19 and struggles vs elite pitching teams (5-16 vs top 10 in runs allowed). Rookie Chad Patrick (2.84 ERA) has been nails, and Milwaukee’s 4th in runs allowed league-wide.

Giants -1.5 (-120) @ Rockies – 8:40 PM ET
Robbie Ray (2.44 ERA) faces MLB’s worst team in both record (12-54) and ERA (6.59). Colorado is last in runs, hits, and winning percentage — all signs point to another San Francisco rout.

All times EDT

Miami Marlins (25-40, .385) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (27-41, .397) – 12:35 PM
🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 3-6, 5.63 ERA, 40 SO — 3.25 ERA since May 1, trending up
🔹 Bailey Falter (PIT): 4-3, 3.49 ERA, 43 SO — 1.60 ERA since May 1
🔍 Both starters are red-hot, but Miami’s rotation owns MLB’s worst road ERA (6.36). Pirates ride a 4-game win streak and edge the Marlins in team momentum.
Odds: Pirates -152, Marlins +125 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-101)

Chicago Cubs (41-26, .612) @ Philadelphia Phillies (38-29, .567) – 1:05 PM
🔹 Ben Brown (CHC): 3-4, 5.37 ERA, 78 SO — inconsistent, facing pressure
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 5-2, 4.46 ERA, 83 SO — 20 ER in last 5.2 IP; possibly tipping pitches
🔍 Cubs lead NL in late-inning OPS (.796) and own a +108 run differential. Phillies have dropped 8 of 10, and Luzardo's recent collapse puts them on shaky ground.
Odds: Phillies -119, Cubs -102 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-120)

Cincinnati Reds (35-33, .515) @ Cleveland Guardians (34-32, .515) – 1:10 PM
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 4-4, 3.21 ERA, 64 SO — 5 straight starts with ≤3 ER
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 3-4, 4.42 ERA, 40 SO — vulnerable vs lefty-heavy lineups
🔍 Reds are 5-0 vs CLE in 2025 and 7-1 in their last 8 AL games. Guardians are ice cold against lefties, ranking 29th in OPS and SLG.
Odds: Reds -115, Guardians -106 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Reds ML (-115)

Atlanta Braves (28-38, .424) @ Milwaukee Brewers (36-32, .529) – 2:10 PM
🔹 Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 4-4, 3.24 ERA, 75 SO — top-tier metrics
🔹 Chad Patrick (MIL): 3-5, 2.84 ERA, 63 SO — strong rookie campaign
🔍 Braves are 2-28 when scoring ≤3 runs and 5-16 vs top 10 pitching. Brewers allow the 4th-fewest runs in MLB and have the edge with Patrick on the bump.
Odds: Braves -144, Brewers +118 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (+118)

Toronto Blue Jays (37-30, .552) @ St. Louis Cardinals (36-31, .537) – 2:15 PM
🔹 Eric Lauer (TOR): 2-1, 2.08 ERA, 24 SO — solid, but 7.27 ERA career vs STL
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 3-5, 3.82 ERA, 58 SO — capable at home
🔍 Jays have won 11 of 13, but Cardinals often strike first (72% road games). Lauer’s STL track record is a red flag.
Odds: Cardinals -144, Blue Jays +118 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-110)

Seattle Mariners (33-33, .500) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (33-34, .493) – 3:40 PM
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 5-3, 3.07 ERA, 69 SO — consistent 6-inning anchor
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 1-3, 6.70 ERA, 55 SO — struggles continue
🔍 Mariners rank 2nd in road OBP, but D-backs slug .476 vs RHP — best in MLB. Woo’s form gives Seattle a shot to salvage finale.
Odds: Mariners -112, Diamondbacks -109 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Mariners ML (-112)

Sacramento Athletics (26-43, .377) @ Los Angeles Angels (32-34, .485) – 4:07 PM
🔹 JP Sears (OAK): 5-5, 5.21 ERA, 49 SO — lit up by LAA in last outing (4 HR allowed)
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 3-6, 5.40 ERA, 41 SO — volatile but experienced
🔍 Angels are 6-0 vs A’s this year and lead MLB in first-pitch XBH rate (48%). A’s have worst team ERA in MLB and have dropped 23 of 27.
Odds: Angels -141, Athletics +116 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Angels ML (-141)

Los Angeles Dodgers (40-28, .588) @ San Diego Padres (38-28, .576) – 4:10 PM
🔹 Justin Wrobleski (LAD): 1-2, 7.20 ERA, 13 SO — struggling to miss bats
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 3-4, 3.69 ERA, 37 SO — 5.68 xFIP suggests regression
🔍 Dodgers lead NL in slugging vs LHP (.462) and OPS (.797). Padres excel with RISP but have dropped 4 of 6. Big rubber match in NL West.
Odds: Dodgers -144, Padres +119 | Total: 10.0
✅ Best Bet: Dodgers ML (-144)

Detroit Tigers (44-24, .647) @ Baltimore Orioles (26-39, .400) – 6:35 PM
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 6-1, 2.91 ERA, 48 SO — consistently limits damage
🔹 Zach Eflin (BAL): 5-2, 4.47 ERA, 31 SO — 3.56 xERA, unlucky stretch
🔍 Tigers crush lefties (.445 SLG) and own MLB’s 2nd-best bullpen. Orioles are 7-3 in last 10 but face tall task vs red-hot Detroit.
Odds: Orioles -121, Tigers -101 | Total: 9.0
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-101)

Washington Nationals (30-36, .455) @ New York Mets (43-24, .642) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 5-2, 4.02 ERA, 50 SO — steady, but vulnerable to hard contact
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 4-2, 2.80 ERA, 65 SO — solid performance incoming
🔍 Mets own MLB’s top home win percentage and crush RHP (.764 OPS). Nationals' bullpen has 2nd-worst ERA in baseball.
Odds: Mets -272, Nationals +216 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Mets -1.5 (-130)

Tampa Bay Rays (36-31, .537) @ Boston Red Sox (33-36, .478) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 6-5, 3.68 ERA, 52 SO — Rays have won 8 straight with him starting
🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 4-4, 5.18 ERA, 44 SO — xFIP 4.12 suggests some bounce-back
🔍 Rays are 7-3 in last 10 and elite on the road (.540 win%). Roman Anthony has sparked BOS lineup, but Littell’s streak can’t be ignored.
Odds: Red Sox -115, Rays -105 | Total: 10.0
✅ Best Bet: Rays ML (-105)

Texas Rangers (32-35, .478) @ Minnesota Twins (35-31, .530) – 7:40 PM
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 4-2, 3.48 ERA, 42 SO — looks sharp in extended role
🔹 David Festa (MIN): 0-1, 5.40 ERA, 21 SO — 8 ER in last outing
🔍 Rangers just dropped 16 runs on MIN, and Leiter's recent form gives them the edge. Twins have strong bullpen (6th in MLB), but Festa’s volatility is a liability.
Odds: Twins -149, Rangers +122 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Rangers ML (+122)

New York Yankees (40-25, .615) @ Kansas City Royals (34-33, .507) – 7:40 PM
🔹 Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 2-3, 4.04 ERA, 50 SO — xERA of 3.06, potential upside
🔹 Kris Bubic (KC): 5-3, 1.43 ERA, 79 SO — due for regression per xFIP
🔍 Yankees lead MLB in HRs (105) and slugging (.466); KC ranks dead last in homers. NYY has already swept season series (4-0).
Odds: Yankees -126, Royals +104 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+140)

Chicago White Sox (23-44, .343) @ Houston Astros (36-30, .545) – 8:10 PM
🔹 Sean Burke (CWS): 3-6, 4.03 ERA, 50 SO — first career start vs HOU
🔹 Ryan Gusto (HOU): 3-3, 4.78 ERA, 45 SO — Astros have lost last 6 Gusto starts
🔍 Astros crush RHP (.276 home BA), and Pena leads lineup with 81 hits. Sox have MLB’s worst BA (.222) and SLG vs RHP.
Odds: Astros -174, White Sox +142 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Astros ML (-174)

San Francisco Giants (39-28, .582) @ Colorado Rockies (12-54, .182) – 8:40 PM
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 8-1, 2.44 ERA, 87 SO — 8 straight quality starts
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 1-8, 5.19 ERA, 52 SO — opponents hitting .320 vs COL SPs
🔍 Giants riding 6-game win streak; Rockies are MLB-worst in runs, hits, and team ERA. Ray is dialed in.
Odds: Giants -209, Rockies +169 | Total: 10.0
🔥 Top Pick: Giants -1.5 (-120)

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