Today’s MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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All times ET

Tigers -1.5 (-115) vs Rangers – 6:40 PM
Skubal has been lights-out at home with a 1.06 ERA, and Detroit’s 13-3 record at Comerica reflects it. Texas has lost 6 of 8 and ranks bottom six in average vs lefties.

Padres -1.5 (-115) at Rockies – 8:40 PM
San Diego shut out Colorado in a three-game sweep last month and now gets Antonio Senzatela (5.50 ERA) at Coors. The Rockies have dropped six straight and own MLB’s worst offense.

Braves ML (-148) at Pirates – 6:40 PM
Pittsburgh’s lost seven straight, scoring just 1.5 runs per game over the past week. Elder’s ground-ball game (53% GB rate) fits well vs a struggling Pirates lineup.

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Rangers at Tigers – 6:40 PM
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 2-1, 3.28 ERA — 5.00 ERA on the road
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 3-2, 2.21 ERA — 1.06 ERA at home
🔍 Insight: Detroit’s won four straight, scoring 8+ in each, and owns a 13-3 home record. Texas is just 6-12 on the road and ranks 26th in average vs LHP.
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers -1.5 (-115)

Braves at Pirates – 6:40 PM
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 2-1, 5.06 ERA — 53% ground-ball rate
🔹 Bailey Falter (PIT): 1-3, 5.06 ERA — 3+ ER in 3 of last 5
🔍 Insight: Atlanta’s coming off a 3-1 series win and faces a Pirates team that hasn’t won in May. Pittsburgh’s hitting .143 as a team during the losing streak.
🔥 Top Pick: Braves ML (-148)

Cardinals at Nationals – 6:45 PM
🔹 Erick Fedde (STL): 2-3, 4.78 ERA — faces former team
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 3-2, 3.48 ERA — 11 ER in last 9 IP
🔍 Insight: St. Louis leads the NL in batting average (.260) and contact rate. Washington’s slight favorite status doesn’t match their current form.
✅ Best Bet: Cardinals ML (-108)

Brewers at Rays – 7:05 PM
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 4-1, 2.83 ERA — thriving despite shaky peripherals
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 2-5, 5.62 FIP — 21 runs allowed over last 5 starts
🔍 Insight: Milwaukee’s hitting just .206 over their last 10 but is 6-4 thanks to strong pitching. Tampa’s offense has cratered, batting .219 over that same span.
✅ Best Bet: Brewers ML (-115)

Cubs at Mets – 7:10 PM
🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 2-1, 3.86 ERA — 4 straight quality starts
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 4-1, 2.95 ERA — hasn’t allowed a HR all year
🔍 Insight: The Mets have won 14 of their last 17 at home. Chicago's struggled at the plate recently and faces a dominant Citi Field staff.
✅ Best Bet: Mets ML (-155)

Phillies at Guardians – 7:10 PM
🔹 Aaron Nola (PHI): 1-5, 4.61 ERA — just 1 ER over last 13 IP
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 2-2, 5.06 ERA — command issues (5 BB in last start)
🔍 Insight: Philly’s won 8 of 10 and leads MLB in strikeout rate. Cleveland’s bullpen could keep it close, but Nola’s regained form gives the Phillies the edge.
✅ Best Bet: Phillies ML (-125)

Red Sox at Royals – 7:40 PM
🔹 Hunter Dobbins (BOS): 2-1, 3.78 ERA — first road start
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 3-3, 4.23 ERA — 1.93 ERA at home
🔍 Insight: Kansas City’s won six straight and just dominated Chicago. Lorenzen’s home dominance and the Royals’ current form give them the edge.
✅ Best Bet: Royals ML (+100)

Marlins at White Sox – 7:40 PM
🔹 Max Meyer (MIA): 2-3, 3.92 ERA — 47 K in 39 IP
🔹 Bryse Wilson (CHW): 0-1, 5.56 ERA — 11 BB in 22.2 IP
🔍 Insight: Miami’s favored despite losing 9 of 11. Chicago’s scored 0 or 1 in three of last four and owns MLB’s worst average (.216).
✅ Best Bet: Marlins ML (-155)

Reds at Astros – 8:10 PM
🔹 Nick Martinez (CIN): 1-3, 4.19 ERA — back-to-back quality starts
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 5-1, 1.67 ERA — 0.36 ERA in April
🔍 Insight: Brown’s been dominant and Peña has sparked Houston’s top of the lineup. Cincinnati’s lost 5 of 6 and just put Hunter Greene on the IL.
✅ Best Bet: Astros -1.5 (+110)

Giants at Twins – 8:10 PM
🔹 Jordan Hicks (SF): 1-3, 6.03 ERA — struggles away from home
🔹 Chris Paddack (MIN): 0-3, 5.57 ERA — hasn’t reached 6th inning in any start
🔍 Insight: Minnesota’s won 5 straight and is hitting .287 with RISP lately. Giants are 5-1 in their last six but vulnerable on the road.
✅ Best Bet: Over 9 (-120)

Padres at Rockies – 8:40 PM
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 1-3, 3.90 ERA — faces MLB's weakest offense
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 1-5, 5.50 ERA — struggles at Coors
🔍 Insight: Padres shut out Colorado in three straight earlier this season. Rockies have lost six straight and have the fewest runs in baseball.
🔥 Top Pick: Padres -1.5 (-115)

Orioles at Angels – 9:38 PM
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 3-2, 3.00 ERA — 2 ER over last 11 IP
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 1-3, 5.28 ERA — best outing last start
🔍 Insight: Baltimore’s dropped 4 straight and bullpen’s falling apart (.779 SLG allowed last 7 days). Hendricks may not hold up against Orioles’ bounce-back urgency.
✅ Best Bet: Over 10 (-102)

Dodgers at Diamondbacks – 9:40 PM
🔹 Roki Sasaki (LAD): 1-1, 3.86 ERA — first start vs ARI
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 1-3, 5.92 ERA — career 6.00 ERA vs LAD
🔍 Insight: Arizona’s elite late-inning offense meets a Dodgers team that ranks 2nd in NL AVG. Expect offense in a high-scoring park.
✅ Best Bet: Over 10 (-105)

Blue Jays at Mariners – 9:40 PM
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 2-3, 3.83 ERA — tough test in Seattle
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 3-2, 3.29 ERA — 1 ER in last 12 IP
🔍 Insight: Seattle’s 4th in MLB in HRs and has already won a series vs Toronto this year. Jays offense ranks 24th in MLB and now faces Castillo at home.
✅ Best Bet: Mariners ML (-148)

Yankees at Athletics – 10:05 PM
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 1-2, 5.65 ERA — 7.07 ERA on road
🔹 Osvaldo Bido (OAK): 2-2, 4.71 ERA — 6.32 ERA at home
🔍 Insight: Sutter Health Park plays big for offense and both pitchers are struggling. Judge’s slump is a concern, but NY’s offense (.465 SLG) leads AL.
✅ Best Bet: Over 11 (EVEN)

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