Today’s MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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All times ET

Tigers -1.5 (-125) at Rockies – 3:10 PM
Casey Mize (5-1, 2.70 ERA) faces the 6-29 Rockies, who strike out at a league-worst 28% rate and own the worst bullpen ERA in MLB (5.41). Detroit’s relievers have a 0.53 ERA over the past week.

Phillies ML (-148) at Rays – 7:05 PM
Jesús Luzardo (3-0, 1.94 ERA) has a 1.59 road ERA and faces a Tampa Bay lineup hitting .182 vs lefties. The Phillies have outscored the Rays 15-4 in the first two games.

Royals -1.5 (-120) vs White Sox – 2:10 PM
Kris Bubic (3-2, 1.98 ERA) has allowed zero earned runs in three of his seven starts. Kansas City is 14-5 at home and going for a four-game sweep against MLB’s lowest-scoring team (3.13 runs/game).

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Orioles at Twins – 1:10 PM
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 3-4, 5.73 ERA — three starts allowing 5+ runs this season
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 4-1, 3.72 ERA — five straight quality starts
🔍 Insight: Minnesota is 11-6 at home and owns a 2.35 starter ERA over the last 14 days. Baltimore ranks last in MLB with a .192 average with RISP and is 5-13 on the road.
✅ Best Bet: Twins ML (-155)

Rangers at Red Sox – 1:35 PM
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 2-1, 4.58 ERA — gave up six earned in 4.1 IP vs Seattle
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 2-0, 2.55 ERA — strong start to 2025
🔍 Insight: The Rangers chase 31% of pitches outside the zone (highest in AL) and draw walks at just a 7% clip (second-lowest). Boston snapped a three-game skid with a 6-4 win last night.
✅ Best Bet: Red Sox ML (-155)

White Sox at Royals – 2:10 PM
🔹 Davis Martin (CHW): 1-3, 3.52 ERA — effective despite poor run support
🔹 Kris Bubic (KC): 3-2, 1.98 ERA — zero earned runs in 3 of 7 starts
🔍 Insight: The White Sox average 3.13 runs per game (last in MLB) and were held to one run yesterday. KC owns the second-best team ERA (2.99) and is 14-5 at home.
🔥 Top Pick: Royals -1.5 (-120)

Tigers at Rockies (Game 1) – 3:10 PM
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 5-1, 2.70 ERA — AL’s winningest starter
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 0-4, 5.70 ERA — struggling season
🔍 Insight: Detroit owns MLB’s best bullpen ERA over the past week (0.53). Colorado is 6-29, has lost four straight, and leads the league in strikeout rate (28%).
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers -1.5 (-125)

Phillies at Rays – 7:05 PM
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 3-0, 1.94 ERA — 1.59 ERA in road games
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 2-4, 4.23 ERA — 1-3, 4.82 ERA at Tropicana Field
🔍 Insight: Tampa Bay is hitting .182 against lefties this season. Philly has won eight straight over the Rays, including 7-0 and 8-4 wins to open this series.
🔥 Top Pick: Phillies ML (-148)

Reds at Braves – 7:15 PM
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 3-3, 3.27 ERA — allowed 6 ER last time out
🔹 Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 1-3, 3.92 ERA — gave up 6 runs in 3.2 IP vs LAD
🔍 Insight: Cincinnati snapped a four-game skid with a 4-3 win yesterday. Atlanta’s lineup has underperformed this series despite facing MLB’s lowest groundball rate staff (39%).
✅ Best Bet: Under 8 (-115)

Blue Jays at Angels – 9:38 PM
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 2-2, 2.95 ERA — 4-0, 2.02 ERA in last 5 vs Angels
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 2-4, 3.83 ERA — 6.14 ERA at home
🔍 Insight: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. carries a 9-game hitting streak, and Toronto’s bullpen allows a .432 SLG (2nd worst in MLB). Angels relievers have a 7.03 ERA, worst in MLB.
✅ Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (-125)

Dodgers at Diamondbacks – 9:40 PM
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 4-2, 0.90 ERA — 4 ER in 40 IP, .160 BAA
🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 5-2, 3.79 ERA — 6.20 ERA in 4 career starts vs LAD
🔍 Insight: The Dodgers have won 9 of 11. Arizona has gone 2-6 in its last 8 home games. Over has hit in each of the last 7 meetings between these teams.
✅ Best Bet: Dodgers ML (-148)

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