We’re Back — Plus a New Tool & Prediction Market News

Hey all —

Took a short, unannounced break after the Kentucky Derby to consider how we can best serve you going forward. Appreciate your patience. Don’t worry, though, we’re not going anywhere!

During that time, we’ve been refining the AI behind our picks and doubling down on our partnership with Inside Edge to keep the facts sharp. One big update: we’ve been exploring how to integrate prediction markets into our content offering — especially after the new CFTC ruling may open up national access via platforms like Kalshi (read more here).

We even built a prototype:
👉 Check out our early prediction markets tool

Still early, but if you're into prediction markets or want to see more of this direction, we’re open to feedback — maybe even a spinoff newsletter.

Also testing a new format today: just the Top 3 picks up top without the full game previews (just listing the games). If you like the brevity, or prefer the deep dive, let us know. Your feedback is what shapes this thing.

-Monte Carmelo Team

All times ET

Reds ML (+100) at Braves – 7:20 PM
Hunter Greene (2.53 ERA, 12 K last outing) gets the nod as Cincinnati looks to snap a four-game skid. The flamethrower has dominated Atlanta in the past (2-0, 3.00 ERA), including seven scoreless innings in last year’s win. Braves starter Grant Holmes (4.24 ERA) has been solid but inconsistent, and Cincinnati’s due after dropping two tight games to open the series. With Greene’s strikeout stuff and the Reds' urgency, this is a buy-low spot.

Brewers ML (-110) vs Astros – 1:10 PM
Houston is 1-5 in Framber Valdez’s last six starts, and he's sporting a 4.97 ERA since April 1. Milwaukee counters with Quinn Priester, who’s been shaky (5.79 ERA), but the Brewers are 19-6 when scoring first and get a struggling Astros team that's lost five of six. With Valdez scuffling and the Astros 6-11 on the road, Milwaukee’s value at near even money is hard to pass up.

Under 8 (-110): Mets at Diamondbacks – 3:40 PM
Ace-level arms square off as Kodai Senga (1.38 ERA) faces Merrill Kelly, who’s allowed 2 or fewer earned in six of seven starts. Senga blanked the D-backs in four innings last week despite a short leash, while Kelly is efficient when healthy. With two teams seeing each other for the second time in a week and both offenses cooled off, expect a tight, low-scoring finale.

⚾ Cleveland Guardians (21-15, .583) @ Washington Nationals (17-20, .459)
Time: 12:05 PM EDT | Venue: Nationals Park
Away Pitcher: Logan Allen (1-2, ERA: 4.02, SO: 22)
Home Pitcher: Michael Soroka (0-1, ERA: 7.20, SO: 3)

⚾ Houston Astros (17-18, .486) @ Milwaukee Brewers (19-18, .514)
Time: 01:10 PM EDT | Venue: American Family Field
Away Pitcher: Framber Valdez (1-4, ERA: 4.39, SO: 37)
Home Pitcher: Quinn Priester (1-0, ERA: 5.79, SO: 17)

⚾ Pittsburgh Pirates (12-25, .324) @ St. Louis Cardinals (18-19, .486)
Time: 01:15 PM EDT | Venue: Busch Stadium
Away Pitcher: Mitch Keller (1-3, ERA: 4.38, SO: 29)
Home Pitcher: Sonny Gray (3-1, ERA: 4.12, SO: 39)

⚾ San Francisco Giants (23-14, .622) @ Chicago Cubs (22-15, .595)
Time: 02:20 PM EDT | Venue: Wrigley Field
Away Pitcher: Robbie Ray (4-0, ERA: 3.05, SO: 41)
Home Pitcher: Ben Brown (3-2, ERA: 4.88, SO: 35)

⚾ Seattle Mariners (21-14, .600) @ Athletics (20-17, .541)
Time: 03:35 PM EDT | Venue: Sutter Health Park
Away Pitcher: Bryan Woo (4-1, ERA: 2.58, SO: 38)
Home Pitcher: Gunnar Hoglund (1-0, ERA: 1.50, SO: 7)

⚾ New York Mets (23-14, .622) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (19-17, .528)
Time: 03:40 PM EDT | Venue: Chase Field
Away Pitcher: Kodai Senga (3-2, ERA: 1.38, SO: 31)
Home Pitcher: Merrill Kelly (3-1, ERA: 4.06, SO: 27)

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⚾ Los Angeles Dodgers (24-12, .667) @ Miami Marlins (14-21, .400)
Time: 04:40 PM EDT | Venue: loanDepot park
Away Pitcher: TBD
Home Pitcher: Valente Bellozo (0-2, ERA: 4.97, SO: 7)

⚾ Texas Rangers (18-18, .500) @ Boston Red Sox (18-19, .486)
Time: 06:45 PM EDT | Venue: Fenway Park
Away Pitcher: Tyler Mahle (3-1, ERA: 1.19, SO: 32)
Home Pitcher: Tanner Houck (0-2, ERA: 6.38, SO: 30)

⚾ Philadelphia Phillies (20-15, .571) @ Tampa Bay Rays (16-19, .457)
Time: 07:05 PM EDT | Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
Away Pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez (3-1, ERA: 3.45, SO: 39)
Home Pitcher: Shane Baz (3-1, ERA: 3.86, SO: 37)

⚾ San Diego Padres (23-12, .657) @ New York Yankees (20-16, .556)
Time: 07:05 PM EDT | Venue: Yankee Stadium
Away Pitcher: Dylan Cease (1-2, ERA: 5.61, SO: 39)
Home Pitcher: Max Fried (6-0, ERA: 1.01, SO: 39)

⚾ Cincinnati Reds (18-19, .486) @ Atlanta Braves (17-18, .486)
Time: 07:15 PM EDT | Venue: Truist Park
Away Pitcher: Hunter Greene (4-2, ERA: 2.53, SO: 55)
Home Pitcher: Grant Holmes (2-2, ERA: 4.24, SO: 35)

⚾ Baltimore Orioles (13-21, .382) @ Minnesota Twins (16-20, .444)
Time: 07:40 PM EDT | Venue: Target Field
Away Pitcher: Charlie Morton (0-6, ERA: 9.76, SO: 26)
Home Pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson (2-2, ERA: 4.03, SO: 30)

⚾ Chicago White Sox (10-26, .278) @ Kansas City Royals (21-16, .568)
Time: 07:40 PM EDT | Venue: Kauffman Stadium
Away Pitcher: Jonathan Cannon (2-3, ERA: 4.26, SO: 32)
Home Pitcher: Michael Wacha (1-4, ERA: 3.52, SO: 29)

⚾ Detroit Tigers (22-13, .629) @ Colorado Rockies (6-28, .176)
Time: 08:40 PM EDT | Venue: Coors Field
Away Pitcher: Jackson Jobe (2-0, ERA: 3.38, SO: 18)
Home Pitcher: Chase Dollander (2-3, ERA: 6.48, SO: 25)

⚾ Toronto Blue Jays (16-19, .457) @ Los Angeles Angels (14-20, .412)
Time: 09:38 PM EDT | Venue: Angel Stadium
Away Pitcher: José Berríos (1-1, ERA: 3.98, SO: 36)
Home Pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi (0-4, ERA: 4.21, SO: 33)

Then check out our website! We have write-ups for every NBA game throughout the playoffs, in addition to live updating MLB scores & odds with sports news.

Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:

🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…

Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info

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