Today's MLB Preview: Fried vs Gonsolin headlines stacked slate with Tigers-Royals

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Tigers ML (-180) @ Royals – 8:10 PM ET
Casey Mize (6-1, 2.45 ERA) returns from the IL to face a KC lineup he dominated in April. Detroit’s won 6 of their last 7 vs the Royals and just swept the Giants.

Padres -1.5 (+105) vs Pirates – 9:40 PM ET
Nick Pivetta (5-2, 2.72 ERA) is 4-0 with a 1.44 ERA at home, and the Padres (31-23) match up well against a Pirates team that’s 21-36 overall and still finding its offense.

Under 7.5 (-122) Twins @ Mariners – 10:10 PM ET
Bryan Woo owns a 0.93 ERA at home, and Twins rookie Zebby Matthews hasn’t been sharp. But Seattle’s offense has been cold and the Twins thrive late—this shapes up as a low-scoring duel.

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Cincinnati Reds (28-29) @ Chicago Cubs (35-21) – 2:20 PM
🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 4-0, 1.73 ERA, 47 SO — allowed 1 ER or fewer in 8 of 9 starts
🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 3-1, 3.51 ERA, 41 SO — hit hard by CIN last week (6 ER in 5 IP)
🔍 Abbott outdueled Rea last weekend and enters red-hot, but the Cubs are tough at home. Wrigley winds and De La Cruz’s bat add volatility.
Odds: Cubs -164, Reds +138 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-115)

Chicago White Sox (18-38) @ Baltimore Orioles (19-36) – 4:30 PM
🔹 Jared Shuster (CWS): 0-0, 6.59 ERA, 11 SO — rough overall metrics
🔹 Zach Eflin (BAL): 3-2, 5.40 ERA, 18 SO — allowed 12 ER in last 2 starts
🔍 Both teams are in the AL basement, but Sean Burke's recent success gives Chicago some upset potential. Eflin’s struggles open the door.
Odds: Orioles -164, White Sox +138 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-122)

Milwaukee Brewers (29-28) @ Philadelphia Phillies (36-20) – 6:45 PM
🔹 DL Hall (MIL): 1-0, 3.86 ERA — just 1 appearance this season
🔹 Taijuan Walker (PHI): 2-3, 2.97 ERA, 33 SO — consistent but 6.00 career ERA vs MIL
🔍 Brewers swept BOS and have late-game magic going. Walker’s past vs MIL adds intrigue despite PHI’s 8-2 surge.
Odds: Phillies -198, Brewers +166 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-122)

Athletics (23-34) @ Toronto Blue Jays (28-28) – 7:07 PM
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 5-3, 3.97 ERA, 47 SO — 6.75 ERA first time through the order
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 4-3, 3.38 ERA, 63 SO — reliable, coming off dominant win
🔍 Toronto blasted OAK 11-0 Thursday and faces a vulnerable starter. Bassitt has held down trade rumors with solid form.
Odds: Blue Jays -185, Athletics +154 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+102)

Los Angeles Angels (25-30) @ Cleveland Guardians (30-25) – 7:10 PM
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 3-5, 3.73 ERA, 47 SO — steady but not backed by offense
🔹 Luis Ortiz (CLE): 2-5, 4.73 ERA, 59 SO — swing-and-miss stuff
🔍 Angels strike out more than any AL team vs righties; bad news vs Ortiz. Trout’s return is a spark, but Cleveland’s been more consistent.
Odds: Guardians -172, Angels +144 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Guardians ML (-172)

Colorado Rockies (9-47) @ New York Mets (34-22) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 0-7, 5.86 ERA — NL-worst .336 opponent avg
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 3-2, 2.79 ERA, 54 SO — in control lately
🔍 Freeland’s been shelled all season, allowing a .336 opponent average—the worst in the NL. With Peterson in control and Colorado in free fall, this shapes up as a clear mismatch.
Odds: Mets -450, Rockies +350 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Mets -1.5 (-165)

San Francisco Giants (31-25) @ Miami Marlins (22-32) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Kyle Harrison (SF): 0-1, 3.86 ERA — only 1 MLB start
🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 3-4, 6.09 ERA, 31 SO — ERA down from 8.00 recently
🔍 SF’s .201 team avg last 10 games leaves room for Miami, but Quantrill has been erratic. Giants have edge if Harrison holds.
Odds: Giants -166, Marlins +140 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Giants ML (-166)

Boston Red Sox (27-31) @ Atlanta Braves (26-29) – 7:15 PM
🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 1-1, 5.27 ERA — 0-2 vs ATL with 11.12 ERA lifetime
🔹 Grant Holmes (ATL): 3-3, 3.68 ERA — 1 ER in 7 IP vs SD last start
🔍 Giolito’s brutal history vs ATL is a concern, and Holmes is Atlanta’s most reliable arm lately. Boston’s lost 5 straight.
Odds: Braves -198, Red Sox +166 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Braves ML (-198)

St. Louis Cardinals (32-24) @ Texas Rangers (27-30) – 8:05 PM
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 3-3, 2.73 ERA — 2 ER or fewer in 8 straight starts
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 3-2, 4.17 ERA — pressure-packed spot for young arm
🔍 Cardinals are rolling while Texas has lost 8 of 10 and can’t score. Liberatore’s stability is a huge edge here.
Odds: Cardinals -138, Rangers +118 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Cardinals ML (-138)

🔥 Detroit Tigers (37-20) @ Kansas City Royals (30-27) – 8:10 PM
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 6-1, 2.45 ERA — coming off IL after dominating start to season
🔹 Seth Lugo (KC): 3-4, 3.02 ERA — steady but facing red-hot DET
🔍 Tigers have won 6 of 7 vs KC and just swept the Giants. Mize beat KC in April and looks to do it again.
Odds: Tigers -180, Royals +152 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-180)

Tampa Bay Rays (29-27) @ Houston Astros (30-26) – 8:10 PM
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 3-5, 3.55 ERA — 7 shutout innings vs TOR last start
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 4-4, 3.39 ERA — veteran steadiness
🔍 Rays crushed HOU 13-3 Thursday. Pepiot’s in form, but Valdez is tough at home. This is about bounce-back vs momentum.
Odds: Astros -134, Rays +116 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)

Washington Nationals (26-30) @ Arizona D-Backs (27-29) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 4-1, 3.42 ERA — part of 5-game Nats win streak
🔹 Merrill Kelly (ARI): 5-2, 3.52 ERA — dependable veteran
🔍 Nats are hot, and Irvin’s been sharp. D-Backs reeling after a 10-1 loss to PIT, but Kelly steadies them.
Odds: D-Backs -200, Nationals +168 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-110)

🔥 Pittsburgh Pirates (21-36) @ San Diego Padres (31-23) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 1-6, 3.66 ERA — 1.89 ERA over last 3 starts
🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 5-2, 2.72 ERA — 4-0, 1.44 ERA at home
🔍 Padres are 17-10 at Petco and crushing the ball. Pivetta’s been elite at home; this is a clear mismatch.
Odds: Padres -240, Pirates +198 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Padres -1.5 (+105)

🔥 Minnesota Twins (30-25) @ Seattle Mariners (30-25) – 10:10 PM
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): 0-1, 7.71 ERA — shaky rookie debut
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 5-2, 2.69 ERA — 0.93 ERA at home
🔍 Seattle’s in a funk, but Woo has been dominant at T-Mobile. With Matthews still adjusting, expect a tight, low-scoring game.
Odds: Mariners -108, Twins -108 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-122)

New York Yankees (35-20) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (34-22) – 10:10 PM
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 7-0, 1.29 ERA, 67 SO — ace-level dominance
🔹 Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 2-1, 4.68 ERA — inconsistent
🔍 Yankees have won 9 of 10 and lead MLB with +113 run diff. Fried vs Dodgers offense is the clash to watch, especially with Judge and Ohtani starring.
Odds: Dodgers -116, Yankees -102 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-122)

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