Today’s MLB Rundown + Best Bets

Every day, we send you quick, no-fluff MLB previews — quick takeaways for every matchup, so you can stay sharp on the day’s action without doing homework.

We also give our best bets. We simulate the sports traders, not the games. Using state-of-the-art AI reasoning models, we replicate how betting analysts actually price games — to find where the edges are.

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All times ET

Tigers -1.5 (-115) at Angels – 9:38 PM
Jack Flaherty (3.34 ERA) draws the start against Kyle Hendricks, who’s been shelled for 17 runs in 23 innings. Detroit’s covered the run line in both games this series, outscoring the Angels 20-8.

Mets ML (-166) vs Cardinals – 2:15 PM
Tylor Megill owns a 1.74 ERA and has held hitters to a .198 average. New York has won 8 of 10 and is averaging over 6 runs per game over the last two weeks.

Astros -1.5 (-148) at White Sox – 2:10 PM
Hunter Brown (1.22 ERA) has been lights-out, and Houston faces MLB’s worst offense (.220 AVG, .620 OPS). White Sox starter Davis Martin (3.24 ERA) faces a lineup clicking again after Friday’s loss.

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Rays at Yankees – 1:05 PM
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 1-5, 5.03 ERA
🔹 Ryan Yarbrough (NYY): 0-0, 4.11 ERA
🔍 Insight: Tampa Bay is hitting just .187 vs lefties, and Yarbrough gets the nod as New York looks to lock down another divisional win. Littell has struggled on the road and faces a powerful Yankee lineup.
✅ Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (-105)

Astros at White Sox – 2:10 PM
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 4-1, 1.22 ERA
🔹 Davis Martin (CWS): 1-3, 3.24 ERA
🔍 Insight: Brown’s been elite (9.7 K/9, 1.22 ERA), and the White Sox have the worst OPS in baseball. Houston is a heavy favorite for a reason.
🔥 Top Pick: Astros -1.5 (-148)

Mets at Cardinals – 2:15 PM
🔹 Tylor Megill (NYM): 3-2, 1.74 ERA
🔹 Erick Fedde (STL): 1-3, 4.68 ERA
🔍 Insight: The Mets are red-hot with a 22-11 record and scoring over six runs per game lately. Fedde faces a brutal matchup against a locked-in lineup.
🔥 Top Pick: Mets ML (-166)

Guardians at Blue Jays – 3:07 PM
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 2-2, 5.14 ERA
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 2-3, 4.50 ERA
🔍 Insight: Both starters have been inconsistent, but Toronto’s won three straight and Cleveland's lineup ranks 22nd in runs. Slight edge to the Jays in a tight spot.
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-105)

Rockies at Giants – 4:05 PM
🔹 Bradley Blalock (COL): 0-1, 10.29 ERA
🔹 Jordan Hicks (SF): 1-3, 6.12 ERA
🔍 Insight: Colorado’s lost 26 of 32, while San Francisco’s won 9 straight at home vs the Rockies. Hicks gets a get-right spot against MLB’s coldest offense.
✅ Best Bet: Giants -1.5 (-142)

Padres at Pirates – 4:05 PM
🔹 Randy Vasquez (SD): 1-3, 4.28 ERA
🔹 Bailey Falter (PIT): 1-3, 5.93 ERA
🔍 Insight: San Diego’s crushing lefties (.288 AVG, 17% K rate), and Falter has been a mess. Padres should roll again.
✅ Best Bet: Padres ML (-122)

Twins at Red Sox – 4:10 PM
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 3-1, 4.13 ERA
🔹 Hunter Dobbins (BOS): 2-0, 2.45 ERA
🔍 Insight: Ober has a 1.59 career ERA vs Boston, but the Sox have scored 11 runs in two straight wins and average 5.1/game at home.
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-112)

Athletics at Marlins – 4:10 PM
🔹 Osvaldo Bido (OAK): 2-2, 4.31 ERA
🔹 Max Meyer (MIA): 2-1, 3.18 ERA
🔍 Insight: Oakland’s been feisty at 18-15, but the Marlins’ bullpen (.891 OPS allowed) is a liability. Meyer has flashed solid stuff, but Miami’s offense continues to scuffle.
✅ Best Bet: Athletics ML (+105)

Diamondbacks at Phillies – 6:05 PM
🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 5-1, 2.83 ERA
🔹 Aaron Nola (PHI): 0-5, 5.40 ERA
🔍 Insight: Arizona leads MLB in runs and dominates high velocity, while Nola’s 0-5 despite back-to-back quality starts. Great matchup for a tight one.
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-118)

Nationals at Reds – 6:40 PM
🔹 Trevor Williams (WSH): 1-3, 5.70 ERA
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 3-2, 2.25 ERA
🔍 Insight: Lodolo’s been dominant and the Nats have MLB’s worst road bullpen ERA. Reds have won 7 of 10 and are tough at home.
✅ Best Bet: Reds -1.5 (+110)

Mariners at Rangers – 7:05 PM
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 3-2, 3.62 ERA
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 2-1, 3.79 ERA
🔍 Insight: Seattle’s won seven straight series and owns MLB’s top ERA. Texas has scored 2 runs in three games and lost six of seven.
✅ Best Bet: Mariners ML (-130)

Cubs at Brewers – 7:10 PM
🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 1-1, 4.01 ERA
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 4-0, 1.14 ERA
🔍 Insight: The Cubs rake lefties (.872 OPS vs LHP) and crushed Milwaukee 10-0 Friday. Quintana has been sharp, but this is a brutal matchup.
✅ Best Bet: Cubs ML (-110)

Dodgers at Braves – 7:15 PM
🔹 Roki Sasaki (LAD): 0-1, 3.55 ERA
🔹 Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 1-2, 2.87 ERA
🔍 Insight: Sasaki’s stuff is electric but walk rate (16%) remains a concern. Schwellenbach’s command gives Atlanta a chance, though their lineup has gone cold.
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)

Royals at Orioles – 7:15 PM
🔹 Kris Bubic (KC): 2-2, 2.25 ERA
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 3-1, 3.00 ERA
🔍 Insight: Royals rank dead last in OPS vs lefties (.590), and the under has hit in 15 of their last 18 combined. Sharp pitching on both sides.
✅ Best Bet: Under 9 (-115)

Tigers at Angels – 9:38 PM
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 1-3, 3.34 ERA
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 0-3, 6.65 ERA
🔍 Insight: Detroit has scored 10 runs in back-to-back wins and draws the struggling Hendricks. Tigers’ starters hold a 3.14 ERA and have overwhelmed LA all series.
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers -1.5 (-115)

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