Today’s MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Cubs -1.5 (-155) vs Rockies – 2:20 PM
Chicago faces a rookie with an 11.88 ERA and leads MLB in runs. The Rockies are 9-44 and have lost 6 of 8 to the Cubs. Big mismatch.

Red Sox/Brewers Under 7.5 (-120) – 2:10 PM
Garrett Crochet (1.98 ERA) has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 5 straight starts, while Chad Patrick (3.23 ERA) has held his own. Low total fits the profile.

Dodgers -1.5 (-107) @ Guardians – 6:10 PM
L.A. is 8-2 in Yamamoto starts, and he brings a 1.86 ERA to Cleveland. Gavin Williams is solid, but the Dodgers are in bounce-back mode after a tough series.

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San Francisco Giants (31-22, .585) @ Detroit Tigers (34-20, .630) – 1:10 PM
🔹 Hayden Birdsong (SF): 2-0, 1.91 ERA, 29 SO — shut out KC over 5 IP in debut
🔹 Keider Montero (DET): 1-1, 5.28 ERA, 21 SO — battling inconsistency
🔍 The Giants have scored 4 or fewer in 8 straight, while the Tigers are 18-8 at home. Montero draws a struggling lineup as Detroit looks to protect home turf.
Odds: Tigers -118, Giants -102 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105)

Boston Red Sox (27-28, .491) @ Milwaukee Brewers (26-28, .481) – 2:10 PM
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 4-3, 1.98 ERA, 78 SO — 5 straight starts with ≤2 ER
🔹 Chad Patrick (MIL): 2-4, 3.23 ERA, 45 SO — consistently competitive
🔍 Jarren Duran is hitting .438 over his last 8, but this total is telling. Two hot arms in a pitchers’ park with the under juiced.
Odds: Red Sox -155, Brewers +130 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)

Colorado Rockies (9-44, .170) @ Chicago Cubs (32-21, .604) – 2:20 PM
🔹 Carson Palmquist (COL): 0-2, 11.88 ERA, 2 SO — 13 ER in 8.1 IP
🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 3-3, 4.13 ERA, 44 SO — 7 IP, 1 ER vs Miami last outing
🔍 The Cubs are rolling (7 of last 9), and they draw the worst team in MLB. Colorado’s Palmquist has been shelled in both starts.
Odds: Cubs -355, Rockies +280 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-155)

St. Louis Cardinals (30-23, .566) @ Baltimore Orioles (18-34, .346) – 3:05 PM
🔹 Erick Fedde (STL): 3-3, 3.77 ERA, 34 SO — solid vs Cubs last time out
🔹 Charlie Morton (BAL): 0-7, 7.68 ERA, 40 SO — no quality starts, 5 games with 4+ ER
🔍 Cardinals are 18-12 on the road and have won 3 straight. Baltimore scores just 3.82 runs/game (26th), and Morton’s been a liability.
Odds: Cardinals -112, Orioles -108 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Cardinals ML (-112)

Toronto Blue Jays (25-27, .481) @ Texas Rangers (26-28, .481) – 4:05 PM
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 4-4, 4.03 ERA, 55 SO — 5.27 ERA on the road
🔹 Jacob deGrom (TEX): 4-1, 2.33 ERA, 62 SO — 1.47 ERA at home
🔍 Jays scored just 2 runs in 3 games vs Tampa. DeGrom’s been dominant at home (.191 BAA), and Toronto’s bats are cold.
Odds: Rangers -135, Blue Jays +114 | Total: 7.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 7 (-122)

Cincinnati Reds (26-28, .481) @ Kansas City Royals (29-25, .537) – 4:10 PM
🔹 Nick Martinez (CIN): 2-5, 3.43 ERA, 43 SO — consistent despite record
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 3-5, 3.77 ERA, 50 SO — steady veteran presence
🔍 Royals are 17-9 at home and play tight, low-scoring games. Elly De La Cruz brings power/speed, but both lineups are streaky.
Odds: Royals -115, Reds -105 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-115)

Chicago White Sox (17-36, .321) @ New York Mets (32-21, .604) – 4:10 PM
🔹 Adrian Houser (CWS): 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 SO — 6 scoreless vs SEA in debut
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 5-3, 3.13 ERA, 53 SO — solid anchor of staff
🔍 Mets are 19-6 at home and just took down the Dodgers. White Sox are 5-21 on the road and still dead last in the AL.
Odds: Mets -270, White Sox +220 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Mets -1.5 (-115)

Los Angeles Dodgers (32-21, .604) @ Cleveland Guardians (29-23, .558) – 6:10 PM
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 5-3, 1.86 ERA, 68 SO — Dodgers 8-2 in his starts
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 4-2, 3.94 ERA, 57 SO — can keep games close
🔍 José Ramírez has hit in 18 straight, but Cleveland got shut out Sunday. Dodgers are favored, and Yamamoto has been elite.
Odds: Dodgers -166, Guardians +140 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-107)

Minnesota Twins (29-23, .558) @ Tampa Bay Rays (26-26, .500) – 7:05 PM
🔹 Chris Paddack (MIN): 2-4, 3.98 ERA, 35 SO — inconsistent
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 3-5, 4.25 ERA, 38 SO — faces former team (.301 BAA vs MIN)
🔍 Rays are riding a 5-game win streak after a 13-0 blowout. Both teams are 7-3 over their last 10, and Littell has history with Minnesota bats.
Odds: Rays -122, Twins +102 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9 (-115)

Pittsburgh Pirates (19-35, .352) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (26-27, .491) – 8:10 PM
🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 3-3, 2.91 ERA, 42 SO — 1 ER in each of last 2 starts
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 1-1, 4.60 ERA, 30 SO — inconsistent role
🔍 D-backs are -192 favorites but have lost 5 straight. Pirates can’t hit (3.04 runs/game), but Heaney’s been quietly excellent.
Odds: Diamondbacks -192, Pirates +160 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-120)

Miami Marlins (21-30, .412) @ San Diego Padres (29-22, .569) – 8:40 PM
🔹 Ryan Weathers (MIA): 1-0, 1.80 ERA, 9 SO — strong early returns
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 3-4, 3.49 ERA, 27 SO — 4 straight starts with ≤2 ER
🔍 Manny Machado’s heating up (.321 AVG), and Padres just took the series opener. Market leans under in a low-total pitching duel.
Odds: Padres -155, Marlins +130 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8 (-118)

New York Yankees (32-20, .615) @ Los Angeles Angels (25-27, .481) – 9:38 PM
🔹 Yankees starter: TBD
🔹 Jack Kochanowicz (LAA): 3-5, 5.03 ERA, 35 SO — command issues
🔍 Aaron Judge leads MLB with 18 HRs and just hit another in a 13-1 rout. Angels dropped 2 straight after a win streak, and Kochanowicz is volatile.
Odds: Yankees -170, Angels +142 | Total: 10.0
✅ Best Bet: Yankees ML (-170)

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