Today’s MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Cubs ML (-112) @ Reds – 4:10 PM
Colin Rea (3-0, 2.38 ERA) and Andrew Abbott (3-0, 1.80 ERA) square off in a sharp pitching duel, but the Cubs lead MLB in scoring (6.00 runs/game) and are playing better baseball. Slight edge to Chicago in a toss-up line.

Angels -1.5 (+118) vs Marlins – 10:07 PM
Jose Soriano (3.57 ERA) gets the call against Cal Quantrill, who’s allowed 11 HR in 41 IP and owns a 6.37 ERA. LA’s riding an 8-game win streak and have homered in 13 straight—edge clearly goes to the hot home team.

Under 7.5 (-135) D-Backs @ Cardinals – 2:15 PM
Both starters are dialed in: Merrill Kelly (3.36 ERA) has allowed just 5 ER in his last 25.1 IP, and Matthew Liberatore (2.85 ERA) has given up just 2 HR in 52.1 IP. Two in-form arms meet in a low-scoring profile.

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🔹 Zach Eflin (BAL): 3-2, 5.12 ERA, 17 SO – allowed 16 ER in 28.1 IP
🔹 Hunter Dobbins (BOS): 2-1, 3.72 ERA, 32 SO – impressive control and poise for a rookie
🔍 Baltimore has lost 9 of 10 and just allowed 19 runs to Boston on Friday. Dobbins faces a depleted O's lineup still reeling from a managerial firing.
Odds: Red Sox -160, Orioles +124 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-105)

🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 3-4, 2.81 ERA, 43 SO – 5-1 career vs Twins with a 3.09 ERA
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): 0-1, 7.20 ERA, 10 SO – allowed four runs in three innings in MLB debut
🔍 Wacha holds the Twins to a .219 xBA, giving KC a clear pitching edge. Royals look to rebound after dropping Friday's 3-1 decision.
Odds: Twins -166, Royals +130 | Total: 6.5
✅ Best Bet: Royals ML (+130)

🔹 Merrill Kelly (ARI): 5-2, 3.36 ERA, 53 SO – 1.78 ERA over his last 25.1 IP
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 3-3, 2.85 ERA, 47 SO – just 2 HR allowed in 52.1 IP
🔍 Cards have won 14 of 18 while Arizona looks to stop a 2-game skid. Both starters are locked in, setting the tone for a tight, low-scoring game.
Odds: Cardinals -200, Diamondbacks +154 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-135)

🔹 Kyle Harrison (SF): 0-0, 3.38 ERA, 7 SO – first start of season with ~60 pitch cap
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 3-1, 3.88 ERA, 40 SO – solid and consistent for Washington
🔍 Giants shut out the Nats 4-0 Friday and have the bullpen to back up Harrison’s short leash. San Francisco's pitching edge holds in a favorable matchup.
Odds: Giants -162, Nationals +136 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Giants ML (-162)

🔹 Quinn Priester (MIL): 1-2, 4.66 ERA, 25 SO – former Pirate makes return to PNC Park
🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 1-6, 3.88 ERA, 48 SO – 0-6 in last 9 starts despite keeping games close
🔍 Oneil Cruz powered Pittsburgh with two homers Friday, snapping Milwaukee’s momentum. This is a get-right spot for Keller if the Pirates can offer any run support.
Odds: Pirates -112, Brewers -108 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-122)

🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 3-0, 2.38 ERA, 32 SO – has kept hitters off balance all year
🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 3-0, 1.80 ERA, 43 SO – allowed just 1 ER over last 4 starts
🔍 Two red-hot arms meet, but the Cubs' MLB-best 6.00 runs per game give them the edge. Cincinnati’s offense has struggled in high-leverage spots.
Odds: Cubs -112, Reds -108 | Total: 9.0
🔥 Top Pick: Cubs ML (-112)

🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 5-1, 2.65 ERA, 55 SO – dominant command and swing-and-miss stuff
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 3-4, 3.57 ERA, 59 SO – effective groundball specialist
🔍 Seattle has won 6 of the last 10 vs Houston and evened the series Friday. Valdez vs Woo has all the makings of a pitchers’ duel.
Odds: Pick’em -110 each | Total: 7.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.0 (-102)

🔹 Michael King (SD): 4-2, 2.59 ERA, 64 SO – elite stuff but no wins since April 30
🔹 Grant Holmes (ATL): 2-3, 4.01 ERA, 49 SO – 3 quality starts in last 4
🔍 Padres snapped a six-game skid Friday and are 5-0 vs Atlanta this year. Acuña’s return adds firepower, but San Diego holds the pitching edge.
Odds: Pick’em -110 each | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Padres ML (-110)

🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 3-2, 4.25 ERA, 27 SO – nearly no-hit Astros in last outing
🔹 Bryse Wilson (CWS): 0-2, 6.00 ERA, 19 SO – struggles to pitch deep into games
🔍 The White Sox have lost 11 of 15 to Texas, but won Friday’s opener. With both offenses cold, pitching may dominate again.
Odds: Rangers -166, White Sox +140 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)

🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 6-0, 1.29 ERA, 60 SO – ace-level dominance
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 0-6, 5.68 ERA, 41 SO – vulnerable every outing
🔍 Yankees were stunned Friday in a 3-2 loss, but Fried gives them a massive bounce-back edge. Coors Field always inflates totals, but Fried could suppress that.
Odds: Yankees -310, Rockies +250 | Total: 10.5
✅ Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (-140)

🔹 José Berríos (TOR): 1-1, 4.19 ERA, 53 SO – 11 straight starts of 5+ IP
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 3-3, 5.33 ERA, 48 SO – allowed 5 ER in last start vs MIA
🔍 Brandon Lowe is heating up, hitting .351 in the last 2 weeks to carry Tampa's offense. Berríos brings consistency to a Jays team seeking separation.
Odds: Rays -115, Blue Jays -105 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-120)

🔹 Luis L. Ortiz (CLE): 2-5, 4.66 ERA, 56 SO – showing recent signs of control
🔹 TBD (DET): —
🔍 Guardians go for a sweep after winning the first two in Detroit. The Tigers are just 17-27 at home and trying to avoid a season-shifting collapse.
Odds: Tigers -130, Guardians +110 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Guardians ML (+110)

🔹 Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 2-0, 4.05 ERA, 24 SO – 0.82 career ERA vs Mets
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 2-2, 2.86 ERA, 47 SO – pitching well despite NY's offensive slump
🔍 The Mets are batting just .188 over their last 5 and have lost 4 of 5. The Dodgers have won 3 straight and got a marathon win Friday night.
Odds: Mets -122, Dodgers +102 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-120)

🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 4-1, 3.10 ERA, 59 SO – part of a staff riding 8-game win streak
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 5-3, 3.91 ERA, 41 SO – solid but vulnerable to lefty-heavy lineups
🔍 The Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 and batting .270 vs LHP. Oakland has lost 10 straight and continues to struggle offensively.
Odds: Phillies -175, Athletics +145 | Total: 10.0
✅ Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (-108)

🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 3-4, 6.37 ERA, 29 SO – 11 HR allowed in 41 IP
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 3-4, 3.57 ERA, 46 SO – reliable option during LA’s 8-game win streak
🔍 Taylor Ward has 9 straight games with an extra-base hit and 7 HR in that span. Quantrill’s home run issues make this a mismatch against LA’s surging bats.
Odds: Angels -192, Marlins +160 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Angels -1.5 (+118)

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