Today’s MLB Rundown + Best Bets (5/18/25)

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Twins ML (+130) @ Brewers – 2:10 PM ET
Minnesota’s riding a 13-game win streak and leads MLB with a 2.39 ERA this month. Milwaukee has been shut out in four of its last five, and Freddy Peralta’s dominant home numbers (0.47 ERA) haven’t stopped the Brewers from dropping 7 of 9.

Tigers ML (+110) @ Blue Jays – 1:37 PM ET
Detroit is 7-0 when Jackson Jobe starts and owns MLB’s best record at 30-16. José Berríos has good history vs DET but Toronto’s bats have cooled and the Tigers rarely lose two in a row.

Cubs -1.5 (-120) vs White Sox – 2:20 PM ET
Chicago’s covered in both games this series by a combined 14 runs. Colin Rea (2.48 ERA) faces MLB’s worst offense (3.38 R/G), and the White Sox have lost 7 straight to the Cubs.

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All times EST

Houston Astros (23-22) @ Texas Rangers (25-22) – 1:05 PM ET
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 2-4, 3.54 ERA — 2 ER or fewer in 4 of last 5
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 3-2, 4.34 ERA — coming off first career quality start
🔍 Texas is 7-1 in its last 8 and 17-9 at home. The Astros have scored in just 2 of 27 innings this series.
Odds: Astros -122, Rangers +102 | Total: 8
✅ Best Bet: Under 8 (-108)

Washington Nationals (20-27) @ Baltimore Orioles (15-29) – 1:35 PM ET
🔹 Michael Soroka (WSH): 0-2, 6.43 ERA — 2 ER in 4 IP last start vs ATL
🔹 Zach Eflin (BAL): 3-1, 3.13 ERA — just 3 walks all season
🔍 The Nats go for the sweep as Baltimore’s dropped five straight and fired manager Brandon Hyde. Eflin gives them a pitching edge, but the O’s bullpen has collapsed late.
Odds: Orioles -192, Nationals +160 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-115)

Pittsburgh Pirates (15-31) @ Philadelphia Phillies (27-18) – 1:35 PM ET
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 3-4, 2.63 ERA — 53 Ks in 41 IP
🔹 Mick Abel (PHI): MLB debut
🔍 Philly’s offense is crushing at home (5.33 R/G), but Skenes faces a rookie making his first MLB start. Pirates have scored 2.25 runs per game over the last 14 days.
Odds: Pirates -112, Phillies -108 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Phillies ML (-108)

Atlanta Braves (23-23) @ Boston Red Sox (23-24) – 1:35 PM ET
🔹 Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 2-3, 3.31 ERA — 1.8 BB/9
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 2-0, 2.33 ERA — 1.10 ERA in 3 home starts
🔍 Boston’s bats are heating up at Fenway (.261 BA), and the Braves are just 8-16 on the road. Bello has been dominant at home, giving BOS a shot in the rubber match.
Odds: Braves -130, Red Sox +110 | Total: 9
✅ Best Bet: Red Sox ML (+110)

Detroit Tigers (30-16) @ Toronto Blue Jays (22-23) – 1:37 PM ET
🔹 Jackson Jobe (DET): 3-0, 4.32 ERA — DET is 7-0 in his starts
🔹 José Berríos (TOR): 1-1, 4.33 ERA — 2.00 ERA in last 5 vs Tigers
🔍 Detroit hasn’t lost back-to-back games more than 4 times this year and owns MLB’s best record. Jobe continues to impress.
Odds: Blue Jays -130, Tigers +110 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (+110)

Cleveland Guardians (25-20) @ Cincinnati Reds (23-24) – 1:40 PM ET
🔹 Luis Ortiz (CLE): 2-4, 4.78 ERA — 2 ER or fewer in 2 of last 3
🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 2-0, 2.10 ERA — 1 ER in last start
🔍 The Reds go for their first sweep of CLE since 2012. Their pitching’s allowed just 6 runs during a 3-game win streak, while the Guardians' bats have gone cold.
Odds: Reds -125, Guardians +105 | Total: 9
✅ Best Bet: Under 9 (-112)

Tampa Bay Rays (21-24) @ Miami Marlins (17-27) – 1:40 PM ET
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 3-2, 5.02 ERA — 9.6 K/9
🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 2-4, 7.00 ERA — no QS in 2025
🔍 Tampa looks to win the Citrus Series behind Baz, while Quantrill continues to struggle. Miami’s been shut out twice in 6 games.
Odds: Rays -166, Marlins +140 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Rays ML (-166)

St. Louis Cardinals (26-20) @ Kansas City Royals (25-22) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 3-3, 3.11 ERA — 6 straight starts w/ ≤2 ER
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 3-4, 2.96 ERA — 1.75 ERA in last 4 starts
🔍 STL has won 12 of 13 and aims to sweep the I-70 Series. Wacha is 4-0 vs his former team, but KC’s offense has gone cold with just 7 runs in their last 4 games.
Odds: Royals -110, Cardinals -110 | Total: 8
✅ Best Bet: Under 8 (-105)

Minnesota Twins (26-20) @ Milwaukee Brewers (21-25) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 4-3, 2.66 ERA — 0.47 ERA at home
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): MLB debut — 1.93 ERA, 38:9 K:BB in AAA
🔍 The Twins have 33 consecutive scoreless innings and are riding a 13-game win streak. Brewers rank 26th in HR and have been shut out in 4 of 5.
Odds: Brewers -155, Twins +130 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Twins ML (+130)

Chicago White Sox (14-32) @ Chicago Cubs (27-19) – 2:20 PM ET
🔹 Jonathan Cannon (CHW): 2-4, 3.60 ERA — 3 straight QS
🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 3-0, 2.48 ERA — 4 shutouts in last 5 starts
🔍 The Cubs have scored 20 runs in the first two games of this series. Swanson’s on fire and Rea’s been lights out.
Odds: Cubs -305, White Sox +245 | Total: 8
🔥 Top Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-120)

Oakland Athletics (22-24) @ San Francisco Giants (27-19) – 4:05 PM ET
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 5-3, 4.27 ERA — 1 ER vs LAD last start
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 0-3, 4.31 ERA — seeking first win
🔍 The A’s have lost 6 of 8 and own the worst road ERA since 2023. Giants are 17-12 when favored and won Friday’s opener 9-1.
Odds: Giants -142, Athletics +120 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Giants ML (-142)

Colorado Rockies (8-37) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (24-22) – 4:10 PM ET
🔹 Chase Dollander (COL): 2-4, 6.88 ERA — 2 ER over 6 IP in last start
🔹 Merrill Kelly (ARI): 4-2, 3.71 ERA — .192 BAA vs COL hitters
🔍 D-backs rank 5th in runs (5.11), and Rockies are 3-21 on the road. Kelly’s owned Colorado in his career.
Odds: Diamondbacks -310, Rockies +250 | Total: 9
✅ Best Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-140)

Los Angeles Angels (19-25) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (29-17) – 4:10 PM ET
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 0-4, 3.72 ERA — 3 ER over last 2 starts
🔹 Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 2-0, 2.81 ERA — 6 shutout IP last start
🔍 The Dodgers are trying to avoid a sweep at home. LAA has scored 17 runs in two games, but LAD mashes lefties (.562 SLG vs LHP).
Odds: Dodgers -238, Angels +195 | Total: 9
✅ Best Bet: Over 9 (-110)

Seattle Mariners (25-19) @ San Diego Padres (27-17) – 4:10 PM ET
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 4-1, 2.84 ERA — 6.1 scoreless vs NYY last start
🔹 Michael King (SD): 4-1, 2.32 ERA — 1.64 ERA at Petco
🔍 Both teams send aces, but SD’s allowed just 2.25 runs/game at home. Mariners have held the Padres to 1 run in back-to-back games.
Odds: Padres -148, Mariners +124 | Total: 7
✅ Best Bet: Under 7 (+105)

New York Mets (29-17) @ New York Yankees (26-19) – 7:10 PM ET
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 2-2, 3.05 ERA — solid but unspectacular
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 6-0, 1.11 ERA — 2 runs allowed in last 5 starts
🔍 Fried has been lights out and the Yankees lead MLB in runs. The Under has hit in four straight Yankee games and both Subway Series matchups.
Odds: Yankees -166, Mets +140 | Total: 9
✅ Best Bet: Under 9 (-118)

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