Today’s MLB Rundown + Best Bets for inaugural Rivalry Weekend

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Tigers ML (-115) @ Blue Jays – 7:07 PM ET
Detroit’s .295 May average and .386 RISP mark lead the AL, and they’ve won 8 of 10. Jack Flaherty’s been unlucky, while Bowden Francis carries a 5.40 ERA into a matchup against a red-hot Tigers lineup slugging .443 vs lefties.

Padres ML (-148) vs Mariners – 9:40 PM ET
Stephen Kolek (0.00 ERA) has been lights out through two MLB starts and now faces a Mariners lineup hitting .208 over their last 10. San Diego is 16-5 at home and has crushed third-time-through-order splits all season.

Phillies -1.5 (+110) vs Pirates – 6:45 PM ET
Pittsburgh has scored 4 runs or fewer in 20 straight games and hits just .204 over the last two weeks. The Phillies are dominant at home after losses (11 straight wins) and send Ranger Suárez to face MLB’s worst offense.

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All times EST

Chicago White Sox (14-30) @ Chicago Cubs (25-19) – 2:20 PM
🔹 Shane Smith (CWS): 1-2, 2.08 ERA, 38 SO — coming off 6 shutout IP vs MIA
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 1-0, 6.75 ERA, 5 SO — showed strikeout upside in MLB debut
🔍 The Cubs are massive favorites but slumping (.193 last 10 games). Wind’s blowing out, and the total is sky-high at 11.5.
Odds: Cubs -238, White Sox +195 | Total: 11.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 11.5 (-115)

Cleveland Guardians (25-18) @ Cincinnati Reds (21-24) – 5:10 PM
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 3-3, 3.80 ERA, 31 SO — steady mid-rotation arm
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 4-2, 4.97 ERA, 39 SO — shaky vs CLE historically (0-2, 4.78 ERA last 5 starts)
🔍 Reds have lost 11 straight at home vs AL Central after a win. Elly De La Cruz leads a potent lineup, but Guardians are 8-1 to the OVER in recent road favorites spots.
Odds: Guardians -120, Reds +100 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-108)

Pittsburgh Pirates (15-29) @ Philadelphia Phillies (25-18) – 6:45 PM
🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 2-3, 3.15 ERA, 36 SO — trending down, 10 ER in last 14.1 IP
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 1-0, 5.91 ERA, 11 SO — dominant last time out (7 shutout IP vs CLE)
🔍 Phillies are 11-0 at home after a loss and face a Pirates lineup with a .204 AVG over 14 days.
Odds: Phillies -245, Pirates +200 | Total: 9.0
🔥 Top Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+110)

Washington Nationals (18-27) @ Baltimore Orioles (15-27) – 7:05 PM
🔹 MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 2-4, 3.59 ERA, 75 SO — elite strikeout arm
🔹 Cade Povich (BAL): 1-3, 5.55 ERA, 29 SO — 7.94 ERA at home
🔍 Orioles’ offense has cratered (3.00 runs/game last 14 days), while Gore's Ks give Nats a clear edge. Both teams struggle with RISP, but the total may be inflated.
Odds: Orioles -130, Nationals +110 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (+100)

New York Mets (28-16) @ New York Yankees (25-18) – 7:05 PM
🔹 Tylor Megill (NYM): 3-3, 3.10 ERA, 52 SO — 11 ER allowed over last 3
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 4-3, 3.29 ERA, 67 SO — 6 ER over last 4 starts
🔍 Alonso vs Judge in the Bronx. Yankees average 6 runs/game at home, but Mets have MLB’s best ERA (2.84).
Odds: Yankees -148, Mets +124 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-118)

Detroit Tigers (29-15) @ Toronto Blue Jays (21-22) – 7:07 PM
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 1-5, 4.61 ERA, 50 SO — unlucky but effective
🔹 Bowden Francis (TOR): 2-5, 5.40 ERA, 30 SO — vulnerable vs RHH
🔍 Detroit leads AL in May AVG (.295) and RISP (.386). Baez heating up, and Tigers feast on lefties.
Odds: Tigers -115, Blue Jays -105 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-115)

Atlanta Braves (22-22) @ Boston Red Sox (22-23) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Chris Sale (ATL): 1-3, 3.97 ERA, 64 SO — return to Fenway
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 4-2, 1.93 ERA, 65 SO — dominant vs LHH
🔍 Braves hit lefties well, Red Sox strike out most vs LHP (28%). Sale revenge game, but Crochet's been elite.
Odds: Red Sox -115, Braves -105 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-118)

Tampa Bay Rays (20-23) @ Miami Marlins (16-26) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Taj Bradley (TB): 3-2, 4.24 ERA, 35 SO — high flyball rate
🔹 Max Meyer (MIA): 2-4, 4.37 ERA, 52 SO — 3 straight 5+ IP starts
🔍 Both lineups cold, but Stowers (MIA) and Lowe (TB) are heating up. Marlins have hit over in 25 of 42.
Odds: Rays -120, Marlins +100 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-115)

St. Louis Cardinals (24-20) @ Kansas City Royals (25-20) – 7:40 PM
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 3-2, 4.36 ERA, 28 SO — pitch-to-contact righty
🔹 Cole Ragans (KC): 2-2, 4.20 ERA, 65 SO — 6th in MLB in Ks
🔍 Cards have won 6 straight series and are hitting .280 w/ RISP. KC's strong at home (16-7), but cooling off.
Odds: Royals -148, Cardinals +124 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)

Houston Astros (22-21) @ Texas Rangers (24-21) – 8:05 PM
🔹 Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU): 0-1, 15.75 ERA, 4 SO — 7 ER in last 0.1 IP
🔹 Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 4-2, 1.78 ERA, 60 SO — 2 ER over last 4 starts
🔍 Rangers have won 6 straight and allow just 1.57 runs/game over that stretch. Astros bats fading.
Odds: Rangers -192, Astros +160 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Rangers -1.5 (+108)

Minnesota Twins (24-20) @ Milwaukee Brewers (21-23) – 8:10 PM
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 3-2, 2.74 ERA, 54 SO — 9 straight 6+ IP starts
🔹 Chad Patrick (MIL): 2-3, 3.19 ERA, 36 SO — short outings, low velo
🔍 Twins are red-hot with a 2.37 staff ERA over last 10. Brewers hitting .211 during that same stretch.
Odds: Twins -118, Brewers -102 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-108)

Colorado Rockies (7-36) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (23-21) – 9:40 PM
🔹 TBD (COL)
🔹 Corbin Burnes (ARI): 2-1, 2.95 ERA, 33 SO — 2 ER in last 18.1 IP
🔍 Rockies are 2-20 on the road and have lost 18 straight after a road loss. Arizona averages 5.64 runs/game at home.
Odds: Diamondbacks -440, Rockies +340 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-188)

Seattle Mariners (23-19) @ San Diego Padres (27-15) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Logan Evans (SEA): 1-1, 3.60 ERA, 11 SO — inconsistent in 3 starts
🔹 Stephen Kolek (SD): 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 11 SO — complete game shutout in last start
🔍 Padres are 16-5 at home and hitting .279 last 10. Mariners have 5.47 ERA over that same stretch.
Odds: Padres -148, Mariners +124 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Padres ML (-148)

Los Angeles Angels (17-25) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (29-15) – 10:10 PM
🔹 Jack Kochanowicz (LAA): 2-5, 5.23 ERA, 24 SO — allows runs in nearly every start
🔹 Dustin May (LAD): 1-3, 4.08 ERA, 33 SO — 3 straight QS
🔍 Dodgers lead MLB in scoring (5.84 runs/game), while Angels rank dead last in AVG and OBP.
Odds: Dodgers -305, Angels +245 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-135)

Oakland Athletics (22-22) @ San Francisco Giants (25-19) – 10:15 PM
🔹 JP Sears (OAK): 4-2, 2.80 ERA, 36 SO — dominated SF last year (1 ER in 14.2 IP)
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 4-3, 2.60 ERA, 65 SO — ace-level consistency
🔍 A’s are 14-9 on the road and Sears owns the Giants. Giants bullpen leads MLB in ERA (2.68).
Odds: Giants -198, Athletics +164 | Total: 7.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.0 (-120)

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