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🔥 Top Picks
Tigers/Guardians Over 7.5 (+103) – 3:08 PM ET
Flaherty allowed 3 ER in just 4⅓ innings in his most recent start against Cleveland, while Cecconi enters with bottom-tier metrics: 11th percentile xERA, 10th percentile xBA, and hard-hit rates in the 4th percentile or worse. Detroit put 15 men on base in Game 2 — if they convert just a few of those, this number’s getting cleared.
Padres ML (-105) vs Cubs – 5:08 PM ET
Darvish owns a 7.26 ERA in seven road starts this season, but San Diego’s bullpen leads MLB with a .618 OPS allowed and .208 BAA — a major late-game advantage. With Machado going deep in Game 2 and Chicago’s relievers taxed, the Padres are the sharper side in this winner-take-all.
Under 7.5 (-116) in Red Sox/Yankees – 8:08 PM ET
The Under’s hit in both games of this series and in Boston’s last five and New York’s last four home games. With two young starters posting sub-3.00 ERAs and both lineups averaging just a few runs per game, this one has all the markings of a low-scoring grind.
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⚾ Game Previews
Detroit Tigers (1-1, .500) @ Cleveland Guardians (1-1, .500) – 3:08 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Over 7.5 (+103)
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 8-15, 4.64 ERA, 188 SO — allowed 3 ER in 4⅓ IP vs CLE in last regular-season start
🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 7-7, 4.30 ERA, 109 SO — 11th percentile xERA, 10th xBA, bottom 4% in hard-hit metrics
🔍 Detroit left 15 runners on base in Game 2, while Cleveland finally broke out with two 8th-inning homers after just six hits over the first 16 innings. Flaherty has postseason experience, but Cecconi’s underlying numbers are rough. With both teams showing signs of offensive life and inconsistent starters, the Over holds value.
💰 Odds: Guardians -132, Tigers +108 | Total: 7.5
San Diego Padres (1-1, .500) @ Chicago Cubs (1-1, .500) – 5:08 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Padres ML (-105)
🔹 Yu Darvish (SD): 5-5, 5.38 ERA, 68 SO — 7.26 ERA in 7 road starts vs 3.95 ERA at home
🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 11-7, 3.68 ERA, 98 SO — 1.85 ERA over final 7 regular-season starts
🔍 The first two games saw just six total runs, but both pens have been leaned on heavily — including Miller and Morejon pitching both games for San Diego. Padres relievers lead MLB in OPS allowed (.618) and BAA (.208), and Darvish, despite road struggles, has the veteran edge. With Machado heating up and the Cubs pen stretched, San Diego’s slight dog price holds value.
💰 Odds: Cubs -115, Padres -105 | Total: 7.5
Boston Red Sox (1-1, .500) @ New York Yankees (1-1, .500) – 8:08 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-116)
🔹 Connelly Early (BOS): 1-2, 2.33 ERA, 29 SO — 13.5 K/9, 1.09 WHIP in 19.1 IP; starts came vs weaker teams
🔹 Cam Schlittler (NYY): 4-3, 2.96 ERA, 84 SO — 7 shutout IP vs BAL in most recent outing
🔍 New York has won 9 of 10 and got a clutch RBI from Austin Wells in Game 2, but Boston leads MLB with a 28.0% RISP plate appearance rate — crucial in tight games. Both starters have limited postseason exposure, and both teams are averaging low run totals, including just 30 runs for Boston over their last 9. With strong recent Under trends, this one projects as another tight finish.
💰 Odds: Yankees -158, Red Sox +129 | Total: 7.5
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